Momentum. The MLS playoff situation is 2008 is tight, with many teams bunched together. One (or more) of the teams in the pack will inevitably put together a few wins to end the season, and they'll be referred to by the fans and media as the hot team, the one no one wants to play. But does that have any affect on the ultimate outcome of a team's season?
There's a few examples of a team getting hot late in the season and making a run. Like DC United in 2004, after they acquired Christian Gomez, and New England in 2002 after they hired Steve Nicol. Are those cases the exception or the rule?
To attempt to measure this, I have gone through and figured out the records for every MLS playoff team in their final five games of the regular season. To start, let's look at the 96 playoff teams by PPG.
Disclaimer: Now obviously there's a lot of flaws with this type of analysis. Such as the number of home/away games, top teams possibly resting players, whether or not the teams they faced had anything to play for, etc. Keep that in mind while reading this.
Teams in blue won the MLS Cup, teams in red were runners up. Shootouts are counted as draws. Ties in the rankings are broken by the traditional soccer tiebreakers (goal differential, then goals scored).
MLS Momentum?: Record over final five games of the regular season
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| GP | W | L | D | Pts | PPG | GF | GA | GD | | 1 | 2003 | New England | 5 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 15 | 3.000 | 15 | 6 | 9 | | 2 | 1997 | Los Angeles | 5 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 15 | 3.000 | 12 | 4 | 8 | | 3 | 2002 | New England | 5 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 13 | 2.600 | 11 | 2 | 9 | | 4 | 2000 | Chicago | 5 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 13 | 2.600 | 15 | 7 | 8 | | 5 | 1996 | Tampa Bay | 5 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 13 | 2.600 | 11 | 3 | 8 | | 6 | 2006 | New England | 5 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 13 | 2.600 | 9 | 3 | 6 | | 7 | 2003 | Kansas City | 5 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 13 | 2.600 | 10 | 5 | 5 | | 8 | 2001 | Chicago | 5 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 13 | 2.600 | 9 | 4 | 5 | | 9 | 1999 | Dallas | 5 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 13 | 2.600 | 9 | 5 | 4 | | 10 | 1996 | Columbus | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 12 | 2.400 | 10 | 2 | 8 | | 11 | 2001 | Miami | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 12 | 2.400 | 15 | 8 | 7 | | 12 | 2001 | Los Angeles | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 12 | 2.400 | 13 | 7 | 6 | | 13 | 2002 | Los Angeles | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 12 | 2.400 | 7 | 2 | 5 | | 14 | 1998 | Colorado | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 12 | 2.400 | 13 | 9 | 4 | | 15 | 2004 | DC United | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 12 | 2.400 | 8 | 4 | 4 | | 16 | 2005 | San Jose | 5 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 11 | 2.200 | 10 | 4 | 6 | | 17 | 2005 | Colorado | 5 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 11 | 2.200 | 7 | 3 | 4 | | 18 | 2004 | Kansas City | 5 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 11 | 2.200 | 4 | 1 | 3 | | 19 | 2005 | DC United | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 10 | 2.000 | 12 | 6 | 6 | | 20 | 1998 | Los Angeles | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 10 | 2.000 | 9 | 4 | 5 | | 21 | 2007 | Houston | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 10 | 2.000 | 8 | 3 | 5 | | 22 | 2002 | Colorado | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 10 | 2.000 | 10 | 7 | 3 | | 23 | 1996 | Los Angeles | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 10 | 2.000 | 9 | 7 | 2 | | 24 | 2003 | Chicago | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 10 | 2.000 | 11 | 10 | 1 | | 25 | 1997 | New England | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 10 | 2.000 | 9 | 8 | 1 | | 26 | 2004 | New England | 5 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 9 | 1.800 | 10 | 5 | 5 | | 27 | 2001 | Columbus | 5 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 9 | 1.800 | 9 | 6 | 3 | | 28 | 1998 | Chicago | 5 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 9 | 1.800 | 9 | 7 | 2 | | 29 | 2001 | New York | 5 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 9 | 1.800 | 8 | 6 | 2 | | 30 | 2004 | Columbus | 5 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 9 | 1.800 | 7 | 5 | 2 | | 31 | 2000 | Kansas City | 5 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 9 | 1.800 | 5 | 3 | 2 | | 31 | 2007 | Chicago | 5 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 9 | 1.800 | 5 | 3 | 2 | | 33 | 1996 | DC United | 5 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 9 | 1.800 | 9 | 8 | 1 | | 34 | 2000 | New England | 5 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 9 | 1.800 | 7 | 7 | 0 | | 35 | 2000 | Dallas | 5 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 9 | 1.800 | 10 | 11 | -1 | | 36 | 1996 | New York | 5 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 9 | 1.800 | 7 | 8 | -1 | | 36 | 2006 | Chicago | 5 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 9 | 1.800 | 7 | 8 | -1 | | 38 | 1999 | DC United | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 8 | 1.600 | 8 | 7 | 1 | | 39 | 2005 | New England | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 8 | 1.600 | 5 | 5 | 0 | | 40 | 1999 | Columbus | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 8 | 1.600 | 7 | 8 | -1 | | 41 | 2001 | San Jose | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 7 | 1.400 | 10 | 6 | 4 | | 41 | 2002 | Columbus | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 7 | 1.400 | 10 | 6 | 4 | | 43 | 1997 | Columbus | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 7 | 1.400 | 7 | 4 | 3 | | 44 | 1997 | DC United | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 7 | 1.400 | 11 | 9 | 2 | | 45 | 2006 | Houston | 5 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 7 | 1.400 | 6 | 5 | 1 | | 46 | 2000 | Colorado | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 7 | 1.400 | 9 | 9 | 0 | | 47 | 2000 | New York | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 7 | 1.400 | 12 | 13 | -1 | | 48 | 2001 | Dallas | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 7 | 1.400 | 10 | 11 | -1 | | 49 | 1999 | Miami | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 7 | 1.400 | 9 | 10 | -1 | | 50 | 2006 | New York | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 7 | 1.400 | 8 | 9 | -1 | | 51 | 2005 | New York | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 7 | 1.400 | 7 | 8 | -1 | | 52 | 1997 | Kansas City | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 7 | 1.400 | 7 | 9 | -2 | | 53 | 2005 | Los Angeles | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 7 | 1.400 | 8 | 11 | -3 | | 54 | 1997 | Tampa Bay | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 7 | 1.400 | 7 | 10 | -3 | | 55 | 2007 | DC United | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 6 | 1.200 | 8 | 6 | 2 | | 56 | 1999 | Los Angeles | 5 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 6 | 1.200 | 8 | 7 | 1 | | 57 | 2000 | Los Angeles | 5 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 6 | 1.200 | 6 | 5 | 1 | | 58 | 1996 | San Jose | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 6 | 1.200 | 8 | 8 | 0 | | 58 | 2007 | New York | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 6 | 1.200 | 8 | 8 | 0 | | 60 | 2005 | Dallas | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 6 | 1.200 | 6 | 6 | 0 | | 61 | 2007 | Chivas USA | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 6 | 1.200 | 5 | 5 | 0 | | 62 | 1998 | Miami | 5 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 6 | 1.200 | 11 | 13 | -2 | | 63 | 2002 | Dallas | 5 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 6 | 1.200 | 9 | 11 | -2 | | 64 | 1997 | Dallas | 5 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 6 | 1.200 | 5 | 7 | -2 | | 65 | 2006 | Dallas | 5 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 6 | 1.200 | 9 | 13 | -4 | | 66 | 1998 | Dallas | 5 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 6 | 1.200 | 6 | 11 | -5 | | 67 | 2001 | Kansas City | 5 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 6 | 1.200 | 5 | 10 | -5 | | 68 | 1998 | DC United | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 1.000 | 13 | 11 | 2 | | 69 | 2000 | Tampa Bay | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 1.000 | 10 | 11 | -1 | | 70 | 2007 | New England | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 1.000 | 8 | 9 | -1 | | 71 | 2004 | Los Angeles | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 1.000 | 3 | 4 | -1 | | 72 | 2003 | New York | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 1.000 | 6 | 8 | -2 | | 72 | 2003 | San Jose | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 1.000 | 6 | 8 | -2 | | 74 | 1999 | Chicago | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 1.000 | 5 | 7 | -2 | | 75 | 2006 | Chivas USA | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 1.000 | 3 | 6 | -3 | | 76 | 2004 | Colorado | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 1.000 | 6 | 10 | -4 | | 77 | 1999 | Tampa Bay | 5 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 0.800 | 8 | 9 | -1 | | 78 | 2003 | Los Angeles | 5 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 0.800 | 6 | 7 | -1 | | 79 | 2007 | Kansas City | 5 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 0.800 | 5 | 6 | -1 | | 80 | 2004 | San Jose | 5 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 4 | 0.800 | 3 | 4 | -1 | | 81 | 2004 | New York | 5 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 0.800 | 7 | 9 | -2 | | 82 | 2005 | Chicago | 5 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 0.800 | 4 | 7 | -3 | | 83 | 2007 | Dallas | 5 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 0.800 | 4 | 8 | -4 | | 84 | 2002 | Kansas City | 5 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 0.800 | 5 | 10 | -5 | | 85 | 2003 | DC United | 5 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 0.600 | 5 | 7 | -2 | | 86 | 2006 | DC United | 5 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 3 | 0.600 | 7 | 10 | -3 | | 87 | 2006 | Colorado | 5 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 0.600 | 5 | 8 | -3 | | 88 | 2002 | Chicago | 5 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 3 | 0.600 | 5 | 9 | -4 | | 89 | 1997 | Colorado | 5 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 3 | 0.600 | 7 | 12 | -5 | | 90 | 1996 | Kansas City | 5 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 0.600 | 5 | 10 | -5 | | 91 | 2002 | San Jose | 5 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 3 | 0.600 | 6 | 12 | -6 | | 92 | 2003 | Colorado | 5 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 0.400 | 9 | 13 | -4 | | 93 | 1999 | Colorado | 5 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 0.400 | 0 | 7 | -7 | | 94 | 1996 | Dallas | 5 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0.200 | 5 | 10 | -5 | | 95 | 1998 | Columbus | 5 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0.200 | 8 | 14 | -6 | | 96 | 1998 | New York | 5 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0.200 | 4 | 13 | -9 |
Interestingly, the bottom two teams played in each other in the first round that year. Only one champion had a losing record (2003 SJ), and only twice has the champion been the hottest team that year (2004, 2007). In 7/12 years, the runner up did better than the title winner.
But of course the winners are up there in the top half, because they usually have better records for the entire regular season. The thing that really interests me, though, is whether or not you could use this in the first round matchups. Do teams higher in the rankings win more of the series compared to the normal seedings? Let's see.
1st Round Playoff Matchups - Seeds vs Momentum
| Seeds | Momentum | | 1996 | 3-1 | 4-0 | | 1997 | 1-3 | 1-3 | | 1998 | 4-0 | 2-2 | | 1999 | 4-0 | 4-0 | | 2000 | 3-1 | 3-1 | | 2001 | 3-1 | 3-1 | | 2002 | 2-2 | 4-0 | | 2003 | 4-0 | 4-0 | | 2004 | 3-1 | 4-0 | | 2005 | 1-3 | 2-2 | | 2006 | 3-1 | 2-2 | | 2007 | 2-2 | 2-2 |
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| | Total | 33-15 | 35-13 |
Seeded teams won 33 of 48 first round or quarterfinal series, for a total of 68.8%. Teams with a better PPG in the final five games won 35 of 48 times, or 72.9%. So that's slightly better, but not much of a difference.
Which playoff series differed between the two factors?
Seeds predicted correctly, but not "Momentum"
| 1997 | DC over NE | | 1998 | DC over MIA | | 1998 | CHI over COL | | 2000 | NY over DAL | | 2006 | DC over NY | | 2007 | NE over NY |
All of these teams were considered favorites to win.
"Momentum" predicted correctly, but not Seeds
| 1996 | KC over DAL | | 1997 | CLB over TB | | 2000 | LA over TB | | 2002 | CLB over SJ | | 2002 | COL over DAL | | 2004 | NE over CLB | | 2005 | COL over DAL | | 2007 | CHI over DC |
Some of these were between very even teams. Of the recent upsets, many people expected the Fire to win last year, but few thought the same of the Revs or Rapids in 2004-05.
What if we look at the difference in the number of points in those final five games between the first round opponents? You would think the bigger the difference, the more likely the winner...
Difference in "Momentum"
| Diff | Times | Right/Wrong | | 0 | 5 | 5-0 | | 1 | 7 | 5-2 | | 2 | 6 | 3-3 | | 3 | 5 | 2-3 | | 4 | 11 | 8-3 | | 5 | 1 | 1-0 | | 6 | 4 | 3-1 | | 7 | 2 | 2-0 | | 8 | 3 | 3-0 | | 9 | 1 | 0-1 | | 10 | 2 | 2-0 | | 11 | 1 | 1-0 |
The biggest upsets in terms of difference in momentum are 1997 Dallas over LA and 2005 Chicago over DC. If you split it up into differences of one game or less versus more than one game:
| Diff | Times | Right/Wrong | | 0-3 | 23 | 15-8 | | 4-11 | 25 | 20-5 |
That looks pretty impressive, but only 3 of the 8 series that the momentum got and seeds didn't featured differences of 4+ points. So it's not impressive, really.
But how about if we looked at GF, GA, and GD instead of PPG? How would those fair as predictors? The only interesting thing I found was that higher seeded teams who also had a better GD in the final five games were 26-7, which is pretty good.
Conclusion
I don't think that the momentum over the last few games matters much, unless it's the byproduct of a big change in the team. Such as a new head coach or a star player arriving. Then, you can see a truly better team (which has probably been apparent for more than those final few games anyway).
There's plenty of room here for deeper research. I'll have to look for articles about momentum going into the playoffs in other sports. Is there a 2000 Yankees every 2007 Rockies? |
Comments on "Does Finishing the Regular Season "Hot" Matter?"
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henryo said ... (11:03 AM, October 02, 2008) :
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Anonymous said ... (1:21 PM, October 16, 2008) :
post a comment2002/03 NE had classic push into the playoffs, prior to those 5 games they were stuck at the bottom of conference, but went on to win ('02) or finished 2nd ('03) in the end!
There is an interesting factor which I don't think you've accounted for here.
The earlier a team has qualified for the playoffs the less emphasis is placed on momentum.
Look at Columbus this year for example, they've been able to protect Schelotto from playing on plastic pitches and allow him to recuperate from injury as he is their star performer and this tactic must count in their favor as they attempt to win the cup.
The later a team qualifies the more significant momentum is purely because they need to get into the playoffs in the first place.
So perhaps the final ten matches of the regular season would provide a better statistical correlation.