Alternate History: If the NFL had Promotion & Relegation

The year is 1970. The Kansas City Chiefs have just defeated the Minnesota Vikings in Super Bowl IV, evening the score at two wins each for the NFL and the AFL. It's now time for the merger between the two leagues to take place. But instead of the Baltimore Colts, Cleveland Browns, and Pittsburgh Steelers jumping to the new American Football Conference and making one 26 team league, the owners instead decide to take a cue from European soccer and institute pro/rel in a major American sport for the first time.

It's decided that the 10 AFL teams will be joined by the three worst NFL teams from 1969: the Chicago Bears, Pittsburgh Steelers, and Saint Louis Cardinals. Together, they would from a second division, the NFL-2. Meanwhile, the playoffs and Super Bowl would continue to settle the NFL league champion, but now there was drama at the bottom of the standings as well. Thus, a new era began for professional football.

How did everything turn out? Many, many details after the jump.



RULES

Three teams were promoted and relegated in each season, using the real life win-loss records. There was an exception for most of the expansion years (1976, 1995, 1999): in the year before, only two teams were relegated to keep the leagues equal. All expansion teams would automatically enter in the second division, with the exception of Baltimore (though it turned out not to matter).

In 1999 when Cleveland joined, this meant that the leagues were uneven (16-15). Therefore, in 2002 when Houston joined, there was no need to relegate fewer teams.

Each year has the same number of playoff teams as one conference did in real life. So that's four from 1970-77, five from 1978-89, and six from 1990-present. The playoff teams would be determined by the top teams based on the overall records (not on who actually qualified).

The Super Bowl winner and runner up were then determined by looking at the qualified playoff teams, then taking the top two which advanced furthest in the real life playoffs (then using the season records if still tied). I didn't go to the trouble of actually seeding teams for every year, since it's not like the records would be exactly the same anyway.

Tiebreakers were broken by head-to-head record, followed by point differential.


SUPER BOWL CHANGES

As it turns out, only 6/41 had different winners than in real life using this system. However, an additional 18 runners up were different than in real life.

Here's the list, with champions first. Differences from real life are in red text.

1966	1	Green Bay	vs	Kansas City
1967	2	Green Bay	vs	Oakland
1968	3	NY Jets	vs	BAL Colts
1969	4	Kansas City	vs	Minnesota
1970	5	BAL Colts	vs	San Francisco
1971	6	Dallas	vs	Miami
1972	7	Miami	vs	Washington
1973	8	Miami	vs	Minnesota
1974	9	Pittsburgh	vs	Oakland
1975	10	Pittsburgh	vs	LA Rams
1976	11	Oakland	vs	Minnesota
1977	12	Dallas	vs	Denver
1978	13	Pittsburgh	vs	Dallas
1979	14	Pittsburgh	vs	Houston
1980	15	Oakland	vs	Philadelphia
1981	16	Dallas	vs	San Diego
1982	17	Miami	vs	Dallas
1983	18	LA Raiders	vs	Washington
1984	19	San Francisco	vs	Miami
1985	20	Chicago	vs	New England
1986	21	NY Giants	vs	Denver
1987	22	Washington	vs	Denver
1988	23	San Francisco	vs	Chicago
1989	24	San Francisco	vs	LA Rams
1990	25	NY Giants	vs	Buffalo
1991	26	Washington	vs	Buffalo
1992	27	Dallas	vs	Buffalo
1993	28	Dallas	vs	Buffalo
1994	29	San Francisco	vs	San Diego
1995	30	Dallas	vs	Pittsburgh
1996	31	Green Bay	vs	San Francisco
1997	32	Denver	vs	Green Bay
1998	33	Denver	vs	Minnesota
1999	34	Jacksonville	vs	Tampa Bay
2000	35	NY Giants	vs	Minnesota
2001	36	Saint Louis	vs	Pittsburgh
2002	37	Tampa Bay	vs	Oakland
2003	38	New England	vs	Indianapolis
2004	39	New England	vs	Philadelphia
2005	40	Pittsburgh	vs	Denver
2006	41	Indianapolis	vs	New England
2007	42	New England	vs	San Diego
2008	43	Pittsburgh	vs	Baltimore
2009	44	New Orleans	vs	Indianapolis
2010	45	Green Bay	vs	Pittsburgh

Here's why the teams who made it in real life didn't here:

1) Didn't qualify for the playoffs:

1970 - Dallas
1974 - Minnesota
1975 - Dallas
1979 - Los Angeles Rams (actually relegated during this season, tough year)
2007 - New York Giants

2) In second division at the time:

1981 - Cincinnati
1981 - San Francisco
1982 - Washington
1988 - Cincinnati
1989 - Denver
1996 - New England
1998 - Atlanta
1999 - Saint Louis
1999 - Tennessee
2000 - Baltimore
2001 - New England
2003 - Carolina
2005 - Seattle
2006 - Chicago
2008 - Arizona

Overall, no team gained or lost more than one title. Baltimore lost its only win, while Jacksonville is the only non-winner that became one. Cincinnati lost both of their appearances, while San Diego gained two.


YEARS IN EACH DIVISON

Which teams spent the most years in the first or second divisions? Ranked by the percentage of time in the first division. 2011 season is included, though it hasn't taken place yet.

		PCT	1st	2nd	Playoffs
1	Miami Dolphins	76.19%	32	10	14
1	Pittsburgh Steelers	76.19%	32	10	16
3	Denver Broncos	73.81%	31	11	9
4	Dallas Cowboys	71.43%	30	12	18
5	Baltimore Ravens	68.75%	11	5	4
6	New England Patriots	66.67%	28	14	10
7	Minnesota Vikings	64.29%	27	15	11
8	Philadelphia Eagles	61.90%	26	16	12
8	San Francisco 49ers	61.90%	26	16	15
10	Oakland Raiders	59.52%	25	17	12
10	Saint Louis Rams	59.52%	25	17	7
12	Indianapolis Colts	54.76%	23	19	10
12	New York Giants	54.76%	23	19	6
14	Carolina Panthers	52.94%	9	8	2
15	Buffalo Bills	52.38%	22	20	7
16	Green Bay Packers	50.00%	21	21	9
16	Washington Redskins	50.00%	21	21	8
18	Tennessee Titans	47.62%	20	22	7
19	Jacksonville Jaguars	47.06%	8	9	3
20	Cleveland Browns	46.15%	18	21	3
21	Kansas City Chiefs	45.24%	19	23	7
22	San Diego Chargers	42.86%	18	24	7
23	Chicago Bears	40.48%	17	25	4
23	New York Jets	40.48%	17	25	3
25	Atlanta Falcons	35.71%	15	27	1
25	Cincinnati Bengals	35.71%	15	27	1
27	New Orleans Saints	30.95%	13	29	4
28	Seattle Seahawks	30.56%	11	25	2
29	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	27.78%	10	26	4
30	Detroit Lions	26.19%	11	31	2
31	Arizona Cardinals	19.05%	8	34	0
32	Houston Texans	0.00%	0	10	0

Yes, that's a total of zero playoff appearances for the Cardinals.

I didn't increase the number of playoff spots for the strike-shortened 1982 season (which happened in real life).


MOST CONSECUTIVE YEARS IN D1/D2

The longest lengths of time spent in division one (bold means a current streak):

	Years	First	Last
Pittsburgh Steelers	19	1993	2011
San Francisco 49ers	18	1982	1999
Dallas Cowboys	17	1970	1986
Oakland Raiders	17	1971	1987
Denver Broncos	14	1997	2010
Miami Dolphins	14	1991	2004
Buffalo Bills	13	1989	2001
Minnesota Vikings	13	1989	2001
Pittsburgh Steelers	13	1973	1985
Baltimore Ravens	11	2001	2011
Miami Dolphins	11	1978	1988
Philadelphia Eagles	11	2001	2011
Washington Redskins	11	1970	1980
Kansas City Chiefs	10	1991	2000
Minnesota Vikings	10	1970	1979
New England Patriots	10	2002	2011

The longest lengths of time spent in division two:

	Years	First	Last
Arizona Cardinals	20	1979	1998
Cincinnati Bengals	18	1992	2009
Washington Redskins	18	1994	2011
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	17	1981	1997
Detroit Lions	15	1997	2011
New York Giants	14	1972	1985
Seattle Seahawks	14	1992	2005
New Orleans Saints	13	1994	2006
Atlanta Falcons	12	1984	1995
Green Bay Packers	12	1974	1985
Kansas City Chiefs	12	1975	1986
New York Jets	12	1970	1981
Arizona Cardinals	10	2000	2009
Houston Texans	10	2002	2011

2011 DIVISION ALIGNMENTS

Here's how two divisions would look for 2011. The number represents the current consecutive number of years in the division.

NFL-1

Arizona	2
Atlanta	3
Baltimore	11
Chicago	1
Dallas	4
Green Bay	4
Indianapolis	9
Kansas City	1
Minnesota	2
New England	10
New Orleans	5
NY Giants	6
NY Jets	1
Philadelphia	11
Pittsburgh	19
San Diego	7

NFL-2

Buffalo	5
Carolina	1
Cincinnati	1
Cleveland	3
Denver	1
Detroit	15
Houston	10
Jacksonville	3
Miami	2
Oakland	8
San Francisco	7
Seattle	3
St. Louis	4
Tampa Bay	5
Tennessee	2
Washington	18

As you can see, in 2010 the promoted teams were Chicago, KC, and the Jets. Relegated were Carolina, Cincinnati, and Denver. The playoff teams were ATL-BAL-GB-NE-NO-PIT.


YEAR BY YEAR CHART

Orange = promoted
Blue = relegated
Green = playoffs

The number above the year is the number of playoff teams.



I know that teams from each conference play 75% of the games against one another, which makes it hard for this to work completely. But I still thought it was interesting to look at. Feel free to post or email any questions or comments.