Tuesday, June 29, 2010

208 to 1: World Cup 2010 Eliminations Timeline

UPDATE: Completed!

Yes, we know now who qualified for the 2010 FIFA World Cup in South Africa. In the future, it will be easy to look at the qualifying standings to see how things turned out. However, one thing that can't easily be determined from a simple glance at the standings is exactly when each team fell out of contention. It's fairly obvious if you look at the schedule for a minute or two, but that takes some effort. So what I set out to do is to make a list of exactly when each team was officially eliminated, and here it is.

You'll see the overall order of each team to the left of their name, counting down from 208 (the number of FIFA members, hence this post's title). The number to the right of the team is their order of elimination within their region.

Order of Elimination

March 30, 2007

206 (tie). Brunei Darussalam (AFC-44th, tie)
206 (tie). Laos (AFC-44th, tie)
206 (tie). Philippines (AFC-44th, tie)

The only three FIFA members not to enter qualifying.

May 25, 2007

204. Papau New Guinea (OFC-11th)

Were listed as participating in qualifying but apparently "failed to meet the official accreditation" (Wikipedia) before qualifying started.

August 7, 2007

205. Guam (AFC-43rd)

Withdrew immediately after the AFC preliminary draw.

August 29, 2007

203. American Samoa (OFC-10th)

First team out during South Pacific Games.

August 31, 2007

201 (tie). Central African Republic (CAF-52nd, tie)
201 (tie). São Tomé and Príncipe (CAF-52nd, tie)

These two CAF members withdrew before the preliminary round.

September 1, 2007

199 (tie). Cook Islands (OFC-8th, tie)
199 (tie). Tahiti (OFC-8th, tie)

September 3, 2007

198. Samoa (OFC-7th)
197. Tonga (OFC-6th)

September 7, 2007

196. Solomon Islands (OFC-5th)

Only four teams remained after the first round of OFC qualifying (aka the South Pacific Games). The first tiebreaker during qualifying is goal differential, and I have Samoa being eliminated before Tonga because of it. Allow me to explain: With one match in the round robin remaining and the second spot to advance still undecided, Vanuatu has 6 points, Samoa 6, and Tonga 3. Samoa has completed all their games with a +1 goal differential; Vanuatu (+17) and Tonga (-1) face each other in the final match. A Tonga win would mean a three way tie, but it is impossible for Samoa's goal differential to be tops in that scenario.

September 13, 2007

195. Bhutan (AFC-42nd)

Also withdrew from qualifying.

October 15, 2007

194. Macau (AFC-41st)

October 26, 2007

193. Afghanistan (AFC-40th)

October 28, 2007

191 (tie). Mongolia (AFC-38th, tie)
191 (tie). Timor-Leste (AFC-38th, tie)
190. Myanmar (AFC-37th)
189. Nepal (AFC-36th)
187 (tie). Bangladesh (AFC-34th, tie)
187 (tie). Palestine (AFC-34th, tie)
186. Chinese Taipei (AFC-33rd)
184 (tie). Maldives (AFC-31st, tie)
184 (tie). Pakistan (AFC-31st, tie)
183. Malaysia (AFC-30th)
182. Cambodia (AFC-29th)
181. Vietnam (AFC-28th)
180. Sri Lanka (AFC-27th)
179. Kyrgyzstan (AFC-26th)

October 30, 2007

178. India (AFC-25th)

First round of Asian qualifying. I'm basing the order on the starting times of the matches as well as the time zones of the host countries. Extra time is taken into account too. There are not really any ties here, but I have no way of knowing which games ended first. I would also be unaware if any games were delayed or anything like that, so keep that in mind.

November 16, 2007

177. Somalia (CAF-51st)

November 17, 2007

176. Comoros (CAF-50th)
175. Guinea-Bissau (CAF-49th)

These three lost in the preliminary round of African qualifying.

November 18th, 2007

174. Tajikistan (AFC-24th)
173. Yemen (AFC-23rd)
172. Indonesia (AFC-22nd)
171. Hong Kong (AFC-21st)

Four teams gone in the small second round of Asian qualifying.

March 25, 2008

170. Eritrea (CAF-48th)

Withdrew after the group stage was drawn.

March 26, 2008

168 (tie). Turks and Caicos Islands (CONCACAF-34th, tie)
168 (tie). U.S. Virgin Islands (CONCACAF-34th, tie)
167. Dominica (CONCACAF-33rd)
166. Aruba (CONCACAF-32nd)
165. Montserrat (CONCACAF-31st)
164. Saint Kitts and Nevis (CONCACAF-30th)
162 (tie). Anguilla (CONCACAF-28th, tie)
162 (tie). Nicaragua (CONCACAF-28th, tie)
161. Dominican Republic (CONCACAF-27th)

March 30, 2008

160. British Virgin Islands (CONCACAF-26th)
159. Cayman Islands (CONCACAF-25th)

First round of North American qualifying done.

June 7, 2008

158. Turkmenistan (AFC-20th)
157. Lebanon (AFC-19th)

June 14
, 2008

156. Jordan (AFC-18th)
155. Thailand (AFC-17th)
154. Singapore (AFC-16th)
153. China (AFC-15th)
152. Oman (AFC-14th)
151. Kuwait (AFC-13th)
150. Puerto Rico (CONCACAF-24th)

June 18, 2008

149. Bahamas (CONCACAF-23rd)

June 20, 2008

148. St. Vincent and the Grenandines (CONCACAF-22nd)

June 21, 2008

146 (tie). Fiji (OFC-3rd, tie)
146 (tie). Vanuatu (OFC-3rd, tie)
145. Seychelles (CAF-47th)
142 (tie). Belize (CONCACAF-19th, tie)
142 (tie). Grenada (CONCACAF-19th, tie)
142 (tie). St. Lucia (CONCACAF-19th, tie)

June 22, 2008

140 (tie). Iraq (AFC-11th, tie)
140 (tie). Syria (AFC-11th, tie)
139. Mauritania (CAF-46th)
138. Djibouti (CAF-45th)
137. Niger (CAF-44th)
135 (tie). Mauritius (CAF-42nd, tie)
135 (tie). Tanzania (CAF-42nd, tie)
134. Barbados (CONCACAF-18th)
133. Guyana (CONCACAF-17th)
132. Antigua and Barbuda (CONCACAF-16th)
131. Bermuda (CONCACAF-15th)
130. Netherlands Antillles (CONCACAF-14th)
129. Panama (CONCACAF-13th)

AFC and CONCACAF are now getting into the heart of their qualification methods. Iraq is the first of the reigning confederation champions to be eliminated. I wonder how many such teams have failed to qualify throughout the history of WCQ? Can't be too many.

June 28, 2008

128. Lesotho (CAF-41st)

September 6, 2008

127. New Caledonia (OFC-2nd)
126. Namibia (CAF-40th)
124 (tie). Equatorial Guinea (CAF-38th, tie)
124 (tie). Liberia (CAF-38th, tie)
123. Burundi (CAF-37th)

September 7, 2008

122. Botswana (CAF-36th)

New Zealand became the champion of Oceania and also advanced to the Confederations Cup. They'll now wait a year to play their next qualifiers. Also, South Africa was eliminated from the qualifying competition on this date. Of course, they're still guaranteed a spot in the World Cup.

September 12, 2008

121. Ethiopia (CAF-35th)

Kicked out of the competition by FIFA, in one of the rare instances where they actually followed through on their threats.

October 11, 2008

120. Congo DR (CAF-34th)
119. Zimbabwe (CAF-33rd)
115 (tie). Angola (CAF-29th, tie)
115 (tie). Cape Verde (CAF-29th, tie)
115 (tie). Libya (CAF-29th, tie)
115 (tie). Madagascar (CAF-29th, tie)
114. Sierra Leone (CAF-28th)
113. Swaziland (CAF-27th)
112. Senegal (CAF-26th)
110 (tie). Chad (CAF-24th, tie)
110 (tie). Congo (CAF-24th, tie)
109. Canada (CONCACAF-12th)

Angola and Cape Verde were hard to figure out because of the second placed teams advancing. I believe they were officially eliminated at the same time, when groups 5 & 7 were settled. Angola becomes the first team from the 2006 World Cup to be eliminated.

Meanwhile, Canada surprisingly is the first CONCACAF team out in the semifinal round. Who would've thought that a year after their great 2007 Gold Cup?

October 12, 2008

108. Uganda (CAF-23rd)
107. Gambia (CAF-22nd)

We're now done with the second round of African qualifying. First of all, I'm really glad that both Angola and South Africa failed to advance. It makes things a whole lot simpler (due to these qualifiers also counting for the 2010 Nations Cup). Of the final 20 teams, in the previous round 10 were #1 seeds. The only two to miss out were Angola and Senegal. 5 were #2 seeds (Algeria, Benin, Burkina Faso, Mozambique, and Zambia), 4 were #3 seeds (Gabon, Malawi, Rwanda, and Sudan), and 1 was a #4 seed (Kenya).

I have to say I'm disappointed to see The Gambia out. They were my surprise pick for a first time qualifier, due to their youth successes recently. Then, seeing some of their players move to MLS only made me more interested in their fate. They played really well, finishing second ahead of Senegal, so they have nothing to be ashamed of. If they're disappointed, they certainly aren't showing it; the president of the country has declared today a public holiday due to the away draw against Senegal.

October 15, 2008

106. Cuba (CONCACAF-11th)
104 (tie). Haiti (CONCACAF-9th, tie)
104 (tie). Suriname (CONCACAF-9th, tie)

October 19, 2008

103. Jamaica (CONCACAF-8th)
102. Guatemala (CONCACAF-7th)

Semifinal round of North American qualifying ends. The hex is set.

April 1, 2009

101. United Arab Emirates (AFC-10th)
100. Malta (UEFA-53rd)
99. San Marino (UEFA-52nd)

After a near-six month break (by far the longest in the process) we finally can eliminate a couple more teams. The first European casualties are here, and now the number of teams remaining is reduced to double digits.

June 6, 2009

98. Georgia (UEFA - 51st)
97. Andorra (UEFA - 50th)
96. Albania (UEFA - 49th)

June 10, 2009

95. Qatar (AFC - 9th)
94. Iceland (UEFA - 48th)
93. Kazakhstan (UEFA - 47th)
92. Liechtenstein (UEFA - 46th)
91. Peru (CONMEBOL - 10th)

June 17, 2009

90. Uzbekistan (AFC - 8th)
89. Iran (AFC - 7th)

Four teams have qualified from Asia, along with the Europe's first, the Netherlands. Iran becomes the second 2006 World Cup team to be eliminated. That's certainly a more shocking elimination than Angola.

August 12, 2009

88. Azerbaijan (UEFA - 45th)

September 5, 2009

87. Rwanda (CAF - 21st)
86. Armenia (UEFA - 44th)
85. Moldova (UEFA - 43rd)
83 (tie). Guinea (CAF - 19th, tie)
83 (tie). Malawi (CAF - 19th, tie)
82. Estonia (UEFA - 42nd)
79 (tie). Cyprus (UEFA - 39th, tie)
79 (tie). Faroe Islands (UEFA - 39th, tie)
79 (tie). Montenegro (UEFA - 39th, tie)

September 6, 2009

76 (tie). Mali (CAF - 16th, tie)
76 (tie). Benin (CAF - 16th, tie)
76 (tie). Sudan (CAF - 16th, tie)

African teams in the final round are beginning to drop, as Ghana and Brazil both punched their ticket to the finals. We've gotten to the point now where you can pretty much say, it's either this time or that team for that spot. I'd say of the remaining teams, a good 20 or so have virtually no shot at qualifying.

September 9, 2009

75. Belgium (UEFA - 38th)
74. Belarus (UEFA - 37th)
73. Luxembourg (UEFA - 36th)
71 (tie). Macedonia (UEFA - 34th, tie)
71 (tie). Scotland (UEFA - 34th, tie)
69 (tie). Finland (UEFA - 32nd, tie)
69 (tie). Wales (UEFA - 32nd, tie)
68. Saudi Arabia (AFC - 6th)
67. Bolivia (CONMEBOL - 9th)
66. Trinidad & Tobago (CONCACAF - 6th)

The Saudis became the third 2006 qualifier to be eliminated this cycle, in heartbreaking fashion by Bahrain. It was funny, because I watched them score around the 90th minute to take the lead. Then, one of their players decided to not to take the ball to the corner a minute later, instead trying to score again. I was thinking it was nice to actually see a player try to go at goal for once in that situation, and of course it costs them. AFC qualifying is now completed. Later on in the day, Trinidad became the 4th 2006 team to fail this time around. Of the other eliminations, Scotland is the only notable one. The others have had no chance for a while now.

October 10, 2009

65. Zambia (CAF - 15th)
64. Burkina Faso (CAF - 14th)
62 (tie). Morocco (CAF - 12th, tie)
62 (tie). Togo (CAF - 12th, tie)
61. Turkey (UEFA - 31st)
60. Bulgaria (UEFA - 30th)
57 (tie). Lithuania (UEFA - 27th, tie)
57 (tie). Poland (UEFA - 27th, tie)
57 (tie). Romania (UEFA - 27th, tie)
56. Austria (UEFA - 26th)
54 (tie). Colombia (CONMEBOL - 8th)
54 (tie). El Salvador (CONCACAF - 5th)

October 11, 2009

52 (tie). Kenya (CAF - 10th, tie)
52 (tie). Mozambique (CAF - 10th, tie)

It was a weekend of many eliminations, but only Colombia looked to have any real hope of making it (and even that was a longshot). At this point, 19 teams have qualified. The dates of qualification can be found on Wikipedia (link).

Many of the 32 teams left alive fighting for a berth have only a microscopic chance. We should see another 10 eliminations on Wednesday, and only one (one of Argentina/Ecuador/Uruguay) should give us any drama. Some teams are only alive based on crazy scenarios; what are the odds of Andorra, Luxembourg, Malta, or San Marino getting a result?

October 14, 2009

51. Croatia (UEFA - 25th)
49 (tie). Israel (UEFA - 23rd, tie)
49 (tie). Latvia (UEFA - 23rd, tie)
47 (tie). Czech Republic (UEFA - 21st, tie)
47 (tie). Northern Ireland (UEFA - 21st, tie)
44 (tie). Hungary (UEFA - 18th, tie)
44 (tie). Norway (UEFA - 18th, tie)
44 (tie). Sweden (UEFA - 18th, tie)
42 (tie). Ecuador (CONMEBOL - 6th, tie)
42 (tie). Venezuela (CONMEBOL - 6th, tie)

None of the crazy scenarios came to pass, so these eliminations were expected. Ecuador will be disappointed at losing to an already qualified Chile. Looks like all the big names will once again make it after Argentina scraped through.

All that's left now is African qualifying and the playoffs. For the remaining 9 spots, it's going to be one of two teams: Algeria/Egypt, Cameroon/Gabon, Nigeria/Tunisia, Bahrain/New Zealand, Costa Rica/Uruguay, and the four UEFA playoffs.

November 14, 2009

41. Bahrain (AFC - 5th)
40. Tunisia (CAF - 9th)
39. Gabon (CAF - 8th)

November 18, 2009

38. Egypt (CAF - 7th)
37. Ukraine (UEFA - 17th)
35 (tie). Bosnia & Herzegovina (UEFA - 15th, tie)
35 (tie). Russia (UEFA - 15th, tie)
34. Ireland (UEFA - 14th)
33. Costa Rica (CONCACAF - 4th)

After two years, qualification has finished. It started in Samoa with the 2007 South Pacific Games, and ended with Uruguay defeating Costa Rica on aggregate.

June 19, 2010

32. Cameroon (CAF - 6th)

June 21, 2010

31. North Korea (AFC-4th)

These were the first two teams eliminated at the World Cup finals, and the only two eliminated before the final round of the group stage. That seemed like a low number, no? In 2006, it appears that no fewer than seven teams were already done (Poland, Costa Rica, Paraguay, Serbia & Montenegro, Cote d'Ivoire, Iran, Togo).

June 22, 2010

29 (tie). France (UEFA-13th)
29 (tie). South Africa (CAF-5th)
28. Greece (UEFA- 12th)
27. Nigeria (CAF-4th)

June 23, 2010

25 (tie). Algeria (CAF-3rd)
25 (tie). Slovenia (UEFA- 11th)
24. Serbia (UEFA- 10th)
23. Australia (AFC-3rd)

June 24, 2010

22. New Zealand (OFC - 1st)
21. Italy (UEFA- 9th)
20. Denmark (UEFA-8th)

June 25, 2010

19. Cote d'Ivoire (CAF-2nd)
18. Honduras (CONCACAF - 3rd)
17. Switzerland (UEFA- 7th)

Group stage complete. Eliminations are based on which games finished first. For example, Mexico-Uruguay finished before France-South Africa. After the first game finished, Mexico had 4 points and France/South Africa had 1. It was still possible for both of those teams to pass Mexico, so they were both still alive until the final whistle.

Another example was New Zealand's game. They finished their game with 3 points before Italy-Slovakia. They finished 0-0, and an equal result in the other game would've kept them alive, but we already knew that was impossible in the other game.

From here on out, it's all pretty simple to follow.

June 26, 2010

16. South Korea (AFC - 2nd)
15. United States (CONCACAF - 2nd)

June 27, 2010

14. England (UEFA - 6th)
13. Mexico (CONCACAF - 1st)

June 28, 2010

12. Slovakia (UEFA - 5th)
11. Chile (CONMEBOL - 5th)

June 29, 2010

10. Japan (AFC - 1st)
9. Portugal (UEFA - 4th)

July 2, 2010

8. Brazil (CONMEBOL - 4th)
7. Ghana (CAF - 1st)

July 3, 2010

6. Argentina (CONMEBOL - 3rd)
5. Paraguay (CONMEBOL - 2nd)

July 6, 2010

4. Uruguay (CONMEBOL - 1st)

July 7, 2010

3. Germany (UEFA - 3rd)

July 11, 2010

2. Netherlands (UEFA - 2nd)
1. Spain (UEFA - 1st)


Comments on "208 to 1: World Cup 2010 Eliminations Timeline"


Blogger amir said ... (6:23 AM, June 26, 2008) : 

Greece in 2006...


Anonymous peteo said ... (3:59 AM, September 13, 2008) : 

It was reported Ethiopia got kicked out of WCQ.



Anonymous Cruz said ... (11:21 PM, April 02, 2009) : 

Great stuff. I think it'd be interesting to also note each country's official FIFA rank at the time of their elimination. It'd be neat to see which teams underperformed relative to their FIFA rank. (I realize with confederations schedules this wouldn't necessarily be entirely accurate, but nevertheless).

I think the biggest upset has to be Angola being eliminated so early. Are they the only 2006 WC team eliminated?


Blogger scaryice said ... (5:33 PM, April 03, 2009) : 

Yes, Angola's the only 2006 team gone. A bit surprising, but I think a much bigger upset is them making it to the last World Cup in the first place.


Anonymous Anonymous said ... (1:19 PM, April 06, 2009) : 

love it! i'll be sure to check back.


Anonymous Anonymous said ... (6:20 PM, December 19, 2009) : 

absolutely superb


Anonymous George said ... (6:54 AM, June 28, 2010) : 

Great page! Are you going to be updating it now the the finals are on?


Anonymous Anonymous said ... (9:21 PM, June 30, 2010) : 

The USA should be 10 becuase there game went to overtime.

Japan should be 9th becuase there game went to PK's.


Blogger scaryice said ... (9:59 PM, July 01, 2010) : 

It's based on the time of elimination.


Anonymous pay per head said ... (3:57 PM, January 26, 2013) : 

Thanks for the timeline. I think that it is quite important to know which play with who to make a great prediction that I like to do .


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