Graduating from Generation Adidas

When I posted my expansion draft preview recently, the subject that stirred up the most debate was this one. Anyone who's followed MLS for a number of years knows that it's a bit of a mystery. When exactly do Generation Adidas players graduate, and what are the criteria? Basically, players are supposed to graduate when they no longer need the roster protection that it provides. If a player has become a full time starter, then they can easily move up to the senior roster. Players can also leave the program without being moved up by being waived (like David Arvizu, for one); in old press releases such instances were still called graduating. The general length of the contract and the maximum time in the program seems to be four years, though several players have gotten five (Seth Trembly, Devin Barclay, and I believe Craig Capano, so their injuries may have been a factor). That's why I feel Jed Zayner is a lock to graduate after this, his fourth year. I've always assumed that it was based on minutes played, and that's a pretty good guideline. The interesting thing about this year is that so many GA rookies are getting significant playing time, raising the possibility that many of them could graduate after one year. That's what I want to focus on for right now. What exactly has it taken in the past for a player to graduate after a single season from GA (or Project-40 as it was formerly known)? I've listed below every member of the program since 2000, and their stats for their first season in the league. I didn't use earlier players for several reasons. First, previous years saw players allocated to teams rather than drafted. Only 3/12 players in 2000 were allocated. Second, some players were graduated in early years with very little playing time. Like Chris Albright, who signed in mid-season and played only 347 minutes. Or Dema Kovalenko, graduated after 291 minutes. Or Tim Howard, graduated after 90 minutes (one game) in 1998. I think that those types of graduations really aren't applicable today. Since 2000, there hasn't been anything like that. Notes: This is the list from the 2009 MLS Fact & Record Book. Some players (such as Ramon Nunez) may have had similar protected status but aren't included below. The three columns below (minutes, games played, games started) include only regular season games. First Year GA Player Stats Grad? MIN PCT GP PCT GS PCT 2000 Garcia, N yes 2916 100% 32 100% 32 100% 2005 Parkhurst yes 2880 100% 32 100% 32 100% 2006 Kljestan yes 2676 93% 32 100% 31 97% 2000 Pierce yes 2600 88% 29 91% 29 91% 2003 Clark, R yes 2590 92% 28 93% 28 93% 2004 Marshall, C yes 2446 91% 28 93% 27 90% 2000 Bocanegra yes 2402 81% 27 84% 27 84% 2007 Edu yes 2180 81% 25 83% 25 83% 2006 Wynne yes 2170 75% 28 88% 23 72% 2005 Guzan yes 2079 72% 24 75% 23 72% 2004 Dempsey yes 2024 75% 24 80% 23 77% 2000 Rimando no 2002 68% 22 69% 22 69% 2002 Gray yes 1780 69% 25 89% 20 71% 2003 Magee yes 1709 61% 29 97% 19 63% 2000 Convey no 1614 55% 22 69% 18 56% 2006 Peterson no 1548 54% 28 88% 17 53% 2000 Califf yes 1518 51% 18 56% 16 50% 2004 Cochrane no 1459 54% 18 60% 18 60% 2002 Martino yes 1455 56% 22 79% 15 54% 2004 Adu no 1440 53% 30 100% 14 47% 2003 Pause yes 1354 49% 23 77% 15 50% 2001 Barclay no 1324 54% 23 85% 12 44% 2006 Sturgis no 1247 43% 15 47% 15 47% 2002 Davis, B yes 1246 49% 24 86% 12 43% 2005 Freeman no 1217 42% 20 63% 14 44% 2008 Espinoza, R no 1169 43% 22 73% 12 40% 2001 Carrieri no 1081 45% 19 73% 11 42% 2007 Soumare no 1072 40% 19 63% 11 37% 2005 Ward, T no 1034 36% 13 41% 11 34% 2001 Quaranta no 949 40% 16 62% 10 38% 2008 Beltran no 936 35% 15 50% 10 33% 2005 Moor no 936 33% 20 63% 9 28% 2006 Kamara no 930 32% 19 59% 9 28% 2004 Grabavoy no 928 34% 15 50% 11 37% 2008 Guarda no 822 30% 12 40% 9 30% 2005 Watson, J no 818 28% 19 59% 6 19% 2003 Lewis, R no 798 28% 13 43% 7 23% 2003 Eskandarian no 728 26% 23 77% 5 17% 2003 Jaqua no 712 26% 20 67% 5 17% 2003 Gaven no 691 25% 12 40% 7 23% 2008 Myers, C no 681 25% 10 33% 7 23% 2003 Alvarez, A no 655 23% 15 50% 5 17% 2007 Rogers no 598 22% 10 33% 6 20% 2005 Barrett, C no 597 21% 20 63% 4 13% 2001 Buddle no 556 23% 17 65% 5 19% 2008 Avila no 508 19% 14 47% 3 10% 2004 Szetela no 374 14% 8 27% 4 13% 2006 Altidore no 330 11% 7 22% 3 9% 2002 Akwari no 325 13% 7 25% 3 11% 2005 Pore no 285 10% 8 25% 4 13% 2001 Downing no 279 11% 5 19% 3 11% 2001 Klinger, M no 272 11% 9 35% 2 8% 2001 Bardales no 270 11% 12 46% 1 4% 2007 Seitz no 270 10% 3 10% 3 10% 2001 Johnson, E no 263 11% 11 42% 1 4% 2004 Goodson no 247 9% 5 17% 2 7% 2000 Asad no 246 8% 8 25% 2 6% 2003 LeBlanc no 225 8% 7 23% 2 7% 2006 Movsisyan no 221 8% 10 31% 1 3% 2006 Sims no 219 8% 9 28% 2 6% 2005 John, W no 200 7% 6 19% 2 6% 2000 Cooks, M no 165 6% 5 16% 2 6% 2008 Nyarko no 159 6% 9 30% 2 7% 2003 Gonzalez, G no 129 5% 6 20% 1 3% 2000 Beckerman no 110 4% 2 6% 1 3% 2001 Burciaga no 93 4% 3 11% 2 7% 2002 Capano no 92 4% 4 14% 1 4% 2002 Stone no 91 3% 4 14% 1 4% 2005 Besagno no 69 2% 2 6% 1 3% 2007 Wallace no 69 3% 1 3% 1 3% 2007 Colaluca no 62 2% 4 13% 0 0% 2002 Mapp no 28 1% 3 11% 0 0% 2004 Gardner no 25 1% 2 7% 0 0% 2000 Trembly no 21 1% 4 13% 0 0% 2008 O'Brien, C no 19 1% 1 3% 0 0% 2000 Salas, S no 18 1% 1 3% 0 0% 2008 Shea no 17 1% 0 0% 2 7% 2006 McCarty, D no 12 0% 2 6% 0 0% 2006 Ianni no 2 0% 2 6% 0 0% 2007 Sesay no 1 0% 1 3% 0 0% 2007 Arguez no 0 0% 0 0% 0 0% 2006 Arvizu no 0 0% 0 0% 0 0% 2004 Bradley no 0 0% 0 0% 0 0% 2003 Carroll no 0 0% 0 0% 0 0% 2001 Countess no 0 0% 0 0% 0 0% 2004 Cronin no 0 0% 0 0% 0 0% 2007 Ibrahim, F no 0 0% 0 0% 0 0% 2007 Igwe no 0 0% 0 0% 0 0% 2005 Jimenez no 0 0% 0 0% 0 0% 2005 Kirk, Q no 0 0% 0 0% 0 0% 2008 Lambo no 0 0% 0 0% 0 0% 2000 Longo no 0 0% 0 0% 0 0% 2008 Nimo no 0 0% 0 0% 0 0% 2001 Saavedra no 0 0% 0 0% 0 0% 2003 Stokes no 0 0% 0 0% 0 0% 2003 Thompson, J no 0 0% 0 0% 0 0% 2008 Valentino no 0 0% 0 0% 0 0% 2006 Wagner no 0 0% 0 0% 0 0% 2006 Zayner no 0 0% 0 0% 0 0% Thoughts: I almost didn't include 2000 in this list because of Rimando. He clearly won the starting role for the Fusion, and it's shocking how for some unknown reason he didn't graduate. And to a lesser extent, Convey. Anyway, besides Rimando nine years ago, every single player with at least 1,700 minutes played has graduated. Other strange decisions? Cochrane and Peterson stand out as players who probably should've graduated. Both started more than half their team's games, but kept their GA status (both through their third season actually). I suppose you could've also made a case for Adu, but it's no surprise that he got a second year. He didn't exactly get those minutes on merit. Among graduates with lesser minutes played, Davis and Marshall were both rookie of the year nominees in 2002, with the latter winning. Califf, I would imagine graduated because he also was a nominee. Although, Adu and Quaranta were both nominated but kept their status. Pause is a curious one. I really wouldn't expect a player to graduate with those kind of numbers. And as someone mentioned on Bigsoccer while I was researching this, he had a lot of playing time early in the season and very little near the end and the playoffs. 10 starts in the first 12 games, and only 5 in the last 18. 2009's GA Class So what about this year's GA rookie class? Here's their stats after this weekend's action: MIN GP GS 2009 Gonzalez, O 2222 25 25 2009 Frei 2115 24 24 2009 Wallace 1995 25 22 2009 Alston 1709 19 19 2009 Zakuani 1607 24 19 2009 Hall 1592 19 17 2009 Husidic 257 7 3 2009 Cruz 107 6 0 2009 Marosevic 47 4 0 The top three are incredible locks to graduate, while the next two should barring anything crazy. Hall, on the other hand, may not be a lock. Two more starts would get him over that 1,700 minute mark. However, NY only has five games left, and he didn't play yesterday. If he didn't play another minute, I'd say that he might not make it. However, Carlos Johnson did get another red card, so that's unlikely. I'd still project Hall as graduating also. Second Year Graduates What does it take for players to graduate after their second season? Listing only players who played 500 minutes in one of the two years: Grad? Year 1 Year 2 2004 Bradley yes 0 2628 2003 Gaven yes 691 2578 2007 Soumare yes 1072 2514 2004 Goodson yes 247 2488 2003 Carroll yes 0 2438 2007 Rogers yes 598 2334 2000 Rimando yes 2002 2300 2005 Moor yes 936 2280 2005 Freeman yes 1217 2131 2003 Jaqua yes 712 1836 2001 Carrieri yes 1081 1830 2003 Eskandarian yes 728 1627 2006 McCarty, D yes 12 1604 2004 Adu yes 1440 1487 2006 Altidore yes 330 1399 2002 Mapp yes 28 1384 2001 Buddle yes 556 1304 2006 Sturgis yes 1247 1146 2003 Lewis, R no 798 1144 2006 Peterson no 1548 1118 2004 Szetela no 374 1117 2002 Stone no 91 1057 2006 Movsisyan no 221 993 2005 Kirk no 0 993 2000 Convey yes 1614 992 2000 Asad no 246 978 2006 Ianni no 2 961 2001 Quaranta yes 949 949 2005 Barrett, C no 597 780 2004 Cochrane no 1459 776 2001 Downing no 279 667 2004 Grabavoy no 928 656 2005 Ward, T no 1034 605 2007 Igwe no 0 568 2005 Pore no 285 563 2006 Kamara no 930 475 2003 Alvarez, A no 655 374 2001 Barclay no 1324 321 2005 Watson, J no 818 104 Once again, Peterson confounds me (especially when Sturgis did it). He did get less playing time and less starts in the second year than the first. The second season seems to matter more than the first. 2008's GA Class Year 1 Year 2 2008 Nyarko 159 1617 2008 Beltran 936 1514 2008 Shea 17 720 2008 Espinoza, R 1169 604 2008 Avila 508 304 2008 Guarda 822 217 2008 Myers, C 681 94 2008 O'Brien, C 19 0 2008 Lambo 0 0 2008 Nimo 0 0 2008 Valentino 0 0 No second year GA player who has received the amount of playing time that Nyarko and Beltran have gotten has failed to graduate. So you can see why I think they're locks. Espinoza, I had previously projected as graduated, and I think that was a mistake. Although, part of that was based on him getting more playing time as the season continued, and he hasn't got much. I think now he's almost a lock to not graduate, so that's good news for Wizards fans. I hope this clears things up a bit! Once the rosters are set (9/15 deadline), I'll revisit my expansion draft projections.