MLS: First Round Picks by College

Check it out below. This includes only the last college a player attended (if he attended more than one). It also counts the colleges of pro players who were drafted (which happened in the early days of the Superdraft). UCLA 16 Maryland 11 Wake Forest 11 Virginia 10 Indiana 9 North Carolina 7 SMU 7 Clemson 6 Connecticut 6 Santa Clara 5 Duke 4 Portland 4 Stanford 4 Akron 3 California 3 Creighton 3 FIU 3 Notre Dame 3 Saint Louis 3 South Florida 3 UC Santa Barbara 3 Washington 3 William & Mary 3 Furman 2 San Jose State 2 South Carolina 2 UAB 2 UNC Charlotte 2 Belhaven 1 Boston College 1 Coastal Carolina 1 CS Dominguez 1 CS Fullerton 1 CS Northridge 1 Fordham 1 Fort Lewis 1 Fresno State 1 George Mason 1 Hartford 1 Lehigh 1 Lynn 1 Michigan 1 New Mexico 1 Ohio State 1 Old Dominion 1 Oregon State 1 Pasadena 1 Rutgers 1 San Diego 1 San Francisco 1 Seton Hall 1 Southern Conn State 1 Tampa 1 Tulsa 1 Virginia Tech 1 Wisconsin 1 none 14 This year, an astounding five Akron players have been signed through the Generation Adidas program. If all of them are drafted in the first round, Akron will set a record for the most first round picks in a single draft. You may remember the current record: It was Wake Forest with four last year (Ike Opara, Zach Schilawski, Corben Bone, Austin da Luz). The only other times a college has had three players drafted were UCLA in 2000 and 2010, and Maryland in 2009. Akron also has senior Anthony Ampaipitakwon, who's expected to be a first rounder, so six isn't out of the question. How about a list of first rounders by current conferences? If any have changed during this offseason, I'm unaware of it. Atlantic Coast 51 Pacific-10 27 Conference USA 15 Big East 14 Big Ten 12 West Coast 11 Atlantic 10 6 Big West 5 Colonial 5 Mid-American 3 Missouri Valley 3 Mountain Pacific 3 Southern 2 America East 1 Big South 1 Patriot 1 Other 8 Other includes lower division teams and Fresno State, who no longer has a team.

2010 Generation Adidas Graduates Announced

Wow, they actually decided to announce them ahead of time for once. The last few years, they've released the information at the same time the expansion draft protected lists come out. I will be posting my final expansion draft predictions over the weekend. I've updated my Graduating from GA post with this year's info, so it's easy to see how 2010's first and second year players compared in terms of minutes to previous GA players. Thoughts on the graduates: This continues the trend of third players graduating more easily, following Igwe & Wallace last season. Avila/Guarda/Myers/Nimo/O'Brien probably wouldn't have graduated a couple years ago. Nimo hasn't even played. No first year players graduated. I thought Tchani might, but he's the only one with a good case. He's just behind Bobby Convey for the most minutes for a first year GA field player without graduating (1614 vs 1610), and his percentage of minutes played is the highest (60%). In addition, he started over 17 games and played in 27. I think he probably should've graduated. However, I am shocked to see Danny Cruz stay GA for another year. His 1,362 minutes are the most ever for a 2nd year GA player who didn't graduate.

2010 MLS Expansion Draft - Preview

Time to start thinking about this once again. This year it's a bit more complicated as two teams will be making selections, but I don't expect the number of protected players (11) to change. Especially since that same number was recently referenced after Portland was announced as picking first on MLSsoccer.com. Whether or not teams will be able to protect an additional player after losing one like in 2004 remains unknown. Before I get into each team's likely 11, it's important to understand a few things about the draft: The Generation Adidas players. As of now, I'm predicting the following 9 to graduate: Colaluca, Cruz, Espinoza, Frei, Gavin, Husidic, Najar, Shea, and Zayner. I feel pretty good about all of those except for Najar, since he's a homegrown player and it's unknown how they'll be treated. Speaking of homegrown players, per the above article they will be exempt. International status is highly important. It's the reason Kansas City had to protect Kevin Souter last year, and why Houston had to protect Guy-Roland Kpene in 2008. You're required to protect at least 3 international players, unless you only have 3 or fewer. The real hiccup here is green cards, which let international players count as domestic and make things complicated. A link to the current salaries is here. Previous expansion draft lists can be found on Wikipedia (where I helped put together several of the articles). Below are my current picks for each team's 11. Players in bold are the ones I consider to be virtual locks to be protected. CHICAGO Protected Available Exempt Calen Carr Mike Banner Corben Bone Nery Castillo C.J. Brown Sean Johnson Wilman Conde Andrew Dykstra Victor Pineda Baggio Husidic Collins John Steven Kinney Krzysztof Krol Freddie Ljungberg Peter Lowry Patrick Nyarko Brian McBride Marco Pappa Dasan Robinson Logan Pause John Thorrington Gonzalo Segares Deris Umanzor Kwame Watson-Siriboe As I talked about in the GA article above, rookie goalkeepers always seem to be given a second year of protected status. So like Stephen Frei a year ago, Johnson should remain GA for 2011 and the Fire shouldn't have to worry about that. There's no reason to protect McBride and his $400k salary, unless he has some sort of no-trade clause. Thorrington has been protected for the past two years, but being injured and costing 200k should mean he's unlikely to be taken. The two DPs may be unlikely selections, but it's hard to leave them off. We'll probably know more about Ljungberg's intentions by the season's end. C.J. Brown is unlikely to leave Chicago, and he's rumored to retire every year. That's why Watson-Siribie is there ahead of him. Carr could easily be usurped by John depending on how the rest of the season goes. CHIVAS USA Protected Available Exempt Carlos Borja Jonathan Bornstein Bryan de la Fuente Justin Braun Chukwudi Chijindu Cesar Zamora Blair Gavin Yamith Cuesta Michael Lahoud Darío Delgado Giancarlo Maldonado Rodolfo Espinoza Paulo Nagamura Jorge Flores Jesus Padilla Maykel Galindo Zach Thornton Alan Gordon Michael Umana Ante Jazic Ben Zemanski Dan Kennedy Sal Zizzo Eduardo Lillingston Gerson Mayen Osael Romero Marcelo Saragosa Mariano Trujillo Alex Zotinca Zizzo didn't sign a GA contract, did he? I didn't see anything to say that he did, like some players who are assigned through weighted lotteries. As always, Chivas is a really hard team to predict due to the lack of media attention and the large number of new foreign players they bring in every year. No less than 5 Chivas players have green cards, and Padilla is an American. The international players are: Cuesta/Delgado/Espinoza/Maldonado/Nagamura/Romero/Umana. Bornstein's departure means he can be left unprotected. If the expansion teams are smart, they'll take him anyway (like Philadelphia should've done with Segares). COLORADO Protected Available Exempt Julien Baudet Andre Akpan Davy Armstrong Conor Casey Quincy Amarikwa Ciaran O'Brien Colin Clark Mehdi Ballouchy Omar Cummings Steward Ceus Kosuke Kimura Danny Earls Jeff Larentowicz Michael Holody Pablo Mastroeni Ian Joyce Drew Moor Ross LaBauex Matt Pickens Claudio Lopez Jamie Smith Scott Palguta Marvell Wynne Ross Schunk Wells Thompson Anthony Wallace Pretty easy to predict for the most part. It's between Smith and Ballouchy for the third international spot (Kimura doesn't count). Amarikwa or Thompson could make an run at the eleven. Some Rapids fans have suggested than Clark could be left unprotected. Will the back to back season ending injuries cause the Rapids to lose a little confidence in him? We'll see. COLUMBUS Protected Available Exempt Brian Carroll Guillermo Barros Schelotto Dilly Duka Emmanuel Ekpo Eric Brunner Shaun Francis Kevin Burns Eddie Gaven Jason Garey William Hesmer Leandre Griffit Andy Iro Andy Gruenebaum Steven Lenhart Frankie Hejduk Chad Marshall Andres Mendoza Adam Moffat Duncan Oughton Danny O'Rourke Gino Padula Emilio Renteria Robbie Rogers Here we have several likely candidates for Portland's first selection. A lot to discuss here. Hejduk wasn't protected a year ago, so that should happen again. Meanwhile, it seems like they might only have room for one of Brunner and Iro. Francis has grabbed the left back position, and is a minimum salary rookie. No question he's protected. So why did I leave Schelotto off? Given his legend-like status with the team, I wouldn't bet against him being protected. However, I feel like he's highly unlikely to be taken. Not because he can't contribute any more, or that he might retire rather than leave the Crew. A team could always pull a Mo Johnston and take him (like Toronto did with Jason Kreis). The thing is, there's several really good choices on the Crew already that make me believe he wouldn't be selected. Toronto only got a partial allocation in return for Kreis; getting Brunner or Rogers is better than that. I haven't even mentioned the international quotas yet. Ekpo already holds a green card, while Iro and Schelotto are reportedly very close to receiving theirs, making them count as domestic. If that happens before the end of the year, then the three protected internationals should be Francis/Moffat/Renteria. The only other choices are Griffit/Mendoza. DALLAS Protected Available Exempt Jair Benitez Eric Alexander Eric Avila David Ferreira Marvin Chavez Bruno Guarda Atiba Harris Jeff Cunningham Josh Lambo Kevin Hartman Kyle Davies Bryan Leyva Daniel Hernandez Edson Edward Ruben Luna Ugo Ihemelu Jackson Peri Marosevic George John Zach Loyd Andrew Wiedeman Dax McCarty Dario Sala Heath Pearce Jason Yeisley Milton Rodriguez Brek Shea Dallas only has a few foreign choices. After Benitez/Ferreira, they'll have to protect one of Chavez/Jackson/Rodriguez (or Guarda if he graduates). Cunningham makes over 200k, and he hasn't been starting. I can't see him taking anyone's place. Alexander or Loyd are probably the next guys in line. Ihemelu makes 150k and Hernandez is 33 years old. Could either lose out to one of those rookies? DC UNITED Protected Available Exempt Marc Burch Danny Allsopp Bill Hamid Pablo Hernandez Brandon Barklage Conor Shanosky Dejan Jakovic Branko Boskovic Julius James Adam Cristman Stephen King Jordan Graye Andy Najar Devon McTavish Santino Quaranta Jaime Moreno Chris Pontius Kurt Morsink Clyde Simms Andrew Quinn Rodney Wallace Juan Manuel Pena Jed Zayner Troy Perkins Barry Rice Carey Talley Jakovic/James are locks due to the internationals rule. The third could be Allsopp/Boskovic/Hernandez/Pena. King and Zayner should be protected due to the investment that DC has in them (the draft picks traded). I could easily see Graye making this list as well, maybe in place of Quaranta? The addition of Zayner could push him back in the pecking order, though. Speaking of investment, does that mean Perkins could be protected? It has to be a decent possibility despite his salary and level of play this season. Anyway, the big question for DC is whether or not Najar is going to graduate to senior roster status. HOUSTON Protected Available Exempt Bobby Boswell Samuel Appiah Tyler Deric Geoff Cameron Corey Ashe Francisco Navas Cobo Brian Ching Mike Chabala Danny Cruz Ryan Cochrane Brad Davis Richard Mulrooney Andrew Hainault Joseph Ngwenya Tally Hall Pat Onstad Brian Mullan Eddie Robinson Anthony Obodai Adrian Serioux Dominic Oduro Cam Weaver Lovel Palmer 3/5 following internationals: Appiah/Hainault/Obodai/Palmer/Serioux. Ngwenya holds a green card, as does Onstad. There isn't a whole lot of mystery here. Hall was protected a year ago, so I assume he'll continue to be. Ashe was protected last season, but not in the previous three years. Along with Ashe/Hall, Chabala/Oduro are cheap players getting a lot of playing time. Which ones represent the future of the team? Could they be favored over a vet like Mullan? I remember Wade Barrett was left off after 2008, and that was the beginning of the end for him. KANSAS CITY Protected Available Exempt Davy Arnaud Korede Aiyegbusi Teal Bunbury Stephane Auvray Jamar Beasley Chance Myers Matt Besler Sunil Chhetri Jimmy Conrad Birahim Diop Roger Espinoza Zoltan Hercegfalvi Michael Harrington Aaron Hohlbein Kei Kamara Jack Jewsbury Jimmy Nielsen Nick Kounenakis Craig Rocastle Eric Kronberg Ryan Smith Jonathan Leathers Shavar Thomas Josh Wolff Graham Zusi One of the easiest teams to predict. If Myers graduates from GA, then he's a lock. I don't believe Omar Bravo will need to be protected, since he won't join the team until next season. Who else on the available list could be protected? Maybe Zusi. Certainly not Wolff. LOS ANGELES Protected Available Exempt David Beckham Gregg Berhalter Tristan Bowen Chris Birchall Alex Cazumba Edson Buddle Bryan Jordan A. J. DeLaGarza Juninho Landon Donovan Jovan Kirovski Todd Dunivant Chris Klein Sean Franklin Dema Kovalenko Omar Gonzalez Eddie Lewis Mike Magee Leonardo Donovan Ricketts Yohance Marshall Michael Stephens Brian Perk Josh Saunders Loan players are really tricky to predict. It's possible that the Galaxy could protect several of their Brazilians, especially Juninho, rather than the non-locks listed. Other than that, it's another easy list. I only list two changes from last year: Dunivant/Stephens instead of Berhalter/Kovalenko. Dunivant is probably the final guy, and may be left out once again. But I don't see any of the non-Brazilians beating him out. I mean, Berhalter is 37 and makes $180,000. NEW ENGLAND Protected Available Exempt Kevin Alston Zak Boggs Darrius Barnes Preston Burpo Kheli Dube Nico Colaluca Cory Gibbs Jason Griffiths Shalrie Joseph Edgaras Jankauskas Kenny Mansally Roberto Linck Sainey Nyassi Tim Murray Emmanuel Osei Pat Phelan Marko Perovic Bobby Shuttleworth Matt Reis Seth Sinovic Zack Schilawski Khano Smith Ilija Stolica Chris Tierney Taylor Twellman It looks as though Twellman will be finally left unprotected, if he doesn't retire. Currently, he's one of only 34 players to be protected every year from 2006-09. Dube has been protected for two straight seasons, though it seems like Revolution fans don't think he deserves to be there this year. Boggs/Phelan/Sinovic/Tierney may be in contention. Stolica should be left off thanks to his big contract (218k), while the status of Perovic/Reis may be up in the air also due to money (180k each). NEW YORK Protected Available Exempt Chris Albright Danleigh Borman Juan Agudelo Juan Pablo Angel Andrew Boyens Giorgi Chirgadze Bouna Coundoul Conor Chinn Tony Tchani Thierry Henry Austin da Luz Macoumba Kandji Irving Garcia Joel Lindpere Jeremy Hall Rafael Marquez Salou Ibrahim Carlos Mendes Roy Miller Tim Ream Brian Nielsen Dane Richards Mike Petke Seth Stammler Luke Sassano Greg Sutton Carl Robinson Sinisa Ubiparipovic Hall and Miller were the final two off. Those are the only two I could see breaking into the list, it's pretty cut and dry. I think Albright is a more likely selection at this point. Luckily for NY, Tchani is probably going to be GA for another season (unless he plays every minute from here on out). PHILADELPHIA Protected Available Exempt Danny Califf Cristian Arrieta Jack McInerney Eduardo Coudet Jordan Harvey Danny Mwanga Fred Brad Knighton Amobi Okugo Juan Diego Gonzalez Stefani Miglioranzi Andrew Jacobson Kyle Nakazawa Sebastien Le Toux J.T. Noone Justin Mapp Shea Salinas Alejandro Moreno Toni Stahl Michael Orozco Fiscal Nick Zimmerman Chris Seitz Roger Torres Another team where a GA graduation could have a big impact. As of now, I don't have Mwanga graduating, but that could change. There are only four international players, three of which must be protected: Coudet/Gonzalez/Stahl/Torres. That's because another four players (Fred/Le Toux/Moreno/Miglioranzi) all hold green cards. It certainly isn't optimal for the Union to protect a Coudet or Stahl, but they'll have to. BTW, Mwanga also holds a green card. So even if he graduates, he won't affect this problem. With large $250,000 salaries, Califf/Fred could easily be unprotected. But who among the available has earned their way onto the list? Possibly Miglioranzi and Nakazawa. REAL SALT LAKE Protected Available Exempt Kyle Beckerman Jean Alexandre Luis Gil Tony Beltran Pablo Campos Nat Borchers David Horst Fabian Espindola Nelson Gonzalez Robbie Findley Ned Grabavoy Will Johnson Rauwshan McKenzie Javier Morales Tim Melia Jamison Olave Kyle Reynish Nick Rimando Robbie Russell Alvaro Saborio Chris Schuler Chris Wingert Collen Warner Andy Williams Findley's contract situation will have an impact. If he leaves, that could be good news in regards to this draft, as they'd get to protect someone else (like Alexandre or Gonzalez). I know they really like Gonzalez, but do they like him enough to save him over Beltran or Wingert? He is on loan, so I suppose that complicates things in their favor. Grabavoy/Russell/Williams were all unprotected last year and should stay that way. SAN JOSE Protected Available Exempt Steven Beitashour Arturo Alvarez Ike Opara Bobby Burling Joe Cannon Jon Busch Bobby Convey Sam Cronin Ramiro Corrales Geovanni Eduardo Joey Gjertsen Cornell Glen Jason Hernandez Omar Jasseh Brandon McDonald Ryan Johnson Scott Sealy Chris Leitch Khari Stephenson Andre Luiz Chris Wondolowski Justin Morrow Brad Ring Tim Ward Opara's injury may help them in the long run, as before it happened he would've easily gotten enough minutes to graduate. Meanwhile, the three internationals seem to be easy picks. Geovanni/Sealy/Stephenson yes, Eduardo/Glen/Jasseh/Luiz no. Johnson is a green card holder. But after that, this is one of the harder teams to predict. Convey and his big salary were unprotected a year ago, so at $250k this year, why not do that again? It would also seem likely that Busch (84k) is protected over Cannon (190k), and that Alvarez (183k) and Corrales (150k) are left out. They could also choose to protect no goalkeeper, since they were switching back and forth this year. SEATTLE Protected Available Exempt Osvaldo Alonso Terry Boss Brad Evans David Estrada Alvaro Fernandez Michael Fucito Leo Gonzalez Taylor Graham Jhon Kennedy Hurtado Kasey Keller Patrick Ianni Roger Levesque Nate Jaqua Tyrone Marshall Fredy Montero Miguel Montano Blaise Nkufo Pat Noonan Jeff Parke Sanna Nyassi Steve Zakuani James Riley Mike Seamon Zach Scott Nathan Sturgis Peter Vagenas Tyson Wahl Like the Crew and Schelotto, I just don't think it makes a ton of sense to protect Keller. If he does make the list, or they decide to go with a younger player, then it could be Jaqua or Parke losing their spots. Let's also see how big of an impact Nkufo has the rest of the year. It was a surprise to see them protect Marshall a year ago, but I don't think that'll happen again. I currently have center backs Hurtado/Ianni/Parke all protected, so that's plenty. Of course, Ianni can play at DM so I don't think it's too many. Riley once again should be left off, but I wonder if Nyassi could still make his way into the 2010 eleven. TORONTO Protected Available Exempt Nana Attakora Jon Conway Doneil Henry Chad Barrett Gabe Gala Fuad Ibrahim Adrian Cann Nick Garcia Julian de Guzman Dan Gargan Dwayne De Rosario Emmanuel Gomez Stefan Frei Ty Harden Nane Joseph Raivis Hscanovics Nick LaBrocca Milos Kocic Amadou Sanyang Mista Maicon Santos Jacob Peterson O'Brian White Martin Saric Maxim Usanov Would anyone take de Guzman? I don't think they'll expose him, regardless. Mista, on the other hand, seems an easy choice to leave out. It's more important than normal to keep the Canadian talent with Vancouver picking. I don't that will impact the list much (if at all), but it's still something to keep in mind. Gomez's injury seemingly will make him safe to leave off, while Ibrahim's possible GA graduation could take away a spot depending on how high they value him.

2010 GA Graduation Predictions

Which players will graduate from Generation Adidas status and have to be protected in the expansion draft come November? I wrote a detailed post last year about how many minutes it takes for 1st and 2nd year players to graduate; it's been updated with the final 2009 stats and can be found here. Class of 2006 Jed Zayner, DC Really surprised when he was given a 5th year. Only a handful of others have done that. I'm sure Columbus was thinking ahead to this year's draft when they recently traded him. Nobody gets a 6th year, so he's a lock to graduate. EDIT: It turns out that Zayner is no longer a GA player. He didn't graduate after last season, so he was GA for the expansion draft. However, his contract expired at the end of 2009 and he was signed to a new (non-GA) one for this season. Class of 2007 Nico Colaluca, NE Fuad Ibrahim, TOR Last season, they surprisingly graduated Chris Seitz and Anthony Wallace yet left these two alone. Wallace only had 826 career minutes compared to Ibrahim's 690 (which was more than Seitz's 630). Getting a 5th year is rare, as I mentioned. Even though Ibrahim is young and is on pace for 400 minutes, he probably still should graduate. The only question is that first year, where he was only 15. I remember there was some weird thing about him not officially joining FC Dallas and not counting on the roster. So I'm inclined to think that even though it goes against the norm, he'll probably be given another year. Colaluca is pretty irrelevant as he wouldn't be protected anyway. I'll say he graduates (and probably gets cut). Class of 2008 Eric Avila, DAL Roger Espinoza, KC Bruno Guarda, DAL Josh Lambo, DAL Chance Myers, KC Alex Nimo, RSL Ciaran O'Brien, COL Brek Shea, DAL Espinoza and Shea are locks to graduate. Espinoza was a borderline case last year, while Shea has clearly become a full time starter and impressed. I'd think that the others wouldn't, but you never know after last year with the two third year players who did. Guarda/Lambo/Nimo/O'Brien definitely shouldn't, while for Avila/Myers there might be an outside chance. But have either really nailed down a roster spot? At least you could make that argument with Seitz last year, but not for Anthony Wallace - little playing time, no guaranteed spot, and only 20 years old at the time. It still doesn't make sense. Class of 2009 Danny Cruz, HOU Stefan Frei, TOR Baggio Husidic, CHI Peri Marosevic, DAL Frei is a stone cold lock. Shocking that he was given another year in the first place. Husidic has become a starter and already played 1,173 minutes. No second year player since 2000 with that many minutes played (1,146+) has ever failed to graduate, so he seems a safe bet. Cruz has already played 871 through 19 games, so he's on pace for 1,375. If he gets over 1,300, there should be no question. He's looked pretty solid for the Dynamo as well. Marosevic is a non-factor. Class of 2010 Corben Bone, CHI Teal Bunbury, KC Dilly Duka, CLB Blair Gavin, CHV Luis Gil, RSL Sean Johnson, CHI Jack McInerney, PHI Danny Mwanga, PHI Amobi Okugo, PHI Ike Opara, SJ Toni Tchani, NY Andrew Wiederman, DAL Is Sal Zizzo a GA or protected player? I forget. Oh well, it doesn't matter. Let's start with Johnson. Even if he starts every remaining match for the Fire, based on Frei's situation I don't expect graduation. That's the fair outcome given what happened there. There's only five players with a real chance. That's unlike last year, where it was more a question of who wouldn't. Gavin has started 16/18 matches and already racked up 1,369 minutes. The odds are overwhelming in his favor right now, and he probably only needs four more starts to be a lock. The other four are Bunbury/Mwanga/Opara/Tchani, and all have an outside chance. Opara was starting full time and on his way to graduation, but broke his foot and will miss the next six weeks. That should pretty much rule him out. He'd have to come back and play 90 in the last 6-7 matches to have a shot. Although it hurts them this year, this should end up helping the Earthquakes by letting them protect another player in the expansion draft and having an extra senior roster spot next year. The other three basically need to start full time the rest of the season, and I don't see that happening. After five first year graduates last year, we'll likely only see one after 2010. Here's the stats for the contenders (the magic number is about 1,700): Min GP GS Proj Min Gavin 1369 16 16 2282 Opara 914 11 10 1613 Bunbury 768 16 7 1280 Tchani 716 15 6 1193 Mwanga 644 12 7 1136 Homegrown Signings Two contenders here: Tristan Bowen (LA) and Andy Najar (DC). The latter has become a starter and is on pace for 1,800 minutes. He should be favored to graduate. Bowen, however, has yet to lock down a starting place and is only on pace for 1,100 minutes. I know the second year threshold is lower, but I'd bet against his graduation even with a bit more playing time. We don't know if they'll treat these GA's any differently. Conclusion 9 players are predicted to graduate: Colaluca, NE Cruz, HOU Espinoza, KC Frei, TOR Gavin, CHV Husidic, CHI Najar, DC Shea, DAL Zayner, DC

Expansion Draft Lists Out

I've spent the last hour or so updating the Wikipedia page, so check that out: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2009_MLS_Expansion_Draft The MLS press release has some errors on the Generation Adidas graduates. However, it appears that all of the following players have graduated: Alston, Kevin Beltran, Tony Gonzalez, Omar Hall, Jeremy Igwe, Amaechi Nyarko, Patrick Seitz, Chris Wallace, Anthony Wallace, Rodney Zakuani, Steve Zayner, Jed I've confirmed this based on protected lists and team press releases (all except for Zayner, who's certainly not gonna get a 5th year). EDIT: MLS has issued an updated press release which confirms the above list, except for Zayner. Really, they've going to give him a 5th year? Surely that's another mistake. I know he was injured, but... How does that differ from the list I was predicting? Well, it seems that Stefan Frei has been given another year, which is very surprising. I know Nick Rimando started all year in 2000 and didn't graduate, but Brad Guzan did and he's the only comparable player since then. At least I'm pretty sure Guzan did, I have him listed as doing so but I can't find the source. Frei really should've graduated, since he clearly established himself as the starter and played 90% of the season. MLS did graduate Chris Seitz, I guess due to the fact that he is a lock to make the roster and also that he's had three years. How you graduate Seitz and not Frei mystifies me. Also graduating are 2007 draftees Amaechi Igwe and Anthony Wallace, which is another surprise. Apparently due to the larger senior roster (or smaller developmental roster), they're going to get these guys out earlier. But tell me how this makes sense: Igwe and Wallace have played 1,196 and 826 minutes in three seasons respectively. They graduated, yet Roger Espinoza has played 1,169 and 635 minutes in his two years and didn't. So I have to believe that the third year is what did it. Overall, I missed 26 out of 165 protected players from my final preview the other day. Two of those were due to Seitz and Frei. EDIT: Here's my predictions on who Philadelphia will take. These things are always really tough to analyze; who would've guessed Jarrod Smith last year for example? If I can get more than three right, I'd be ecstatic. I expect Philadelphia will take more veteran and expensive players this year because they haven't signed anyone yet. At this point last year Seattle already had committed to $800,000 against the cap with Keller, Ljungberg, and Le Toux. So I don't think it's too unrealistic that they could take somebody like Luciano Emilio or Amado Guevara (who SBI and Goal.com both seem to expect will be taken). (2010 age in parentheses) CHI - Gonzalo Segares (27) - Even if there's only a 25% of him staying, it's worth the risk. It's not like all ten picks will end up on the roster anyway. Why not take the chance? CHV - Shavar Thomas (29) - Solid defender. CLB - Alejandro Moreno (30) - Won't score a lot, but it's not just about the goals. Every year his team ends up being good. COL - Greg Dalby (24) - Cheap player who was very highly regarded coming out of college. Hasn't gotten a real opportunity to show his potential. DC - Devon McTavish (25) - Versatile player can fill in at several positions. HOU - Eddie Robinson (31) - Former Best XI player coming off a big injury. KC - Herculez Gomez (28) - Cheap attacking player. Maybe him and Convey on the left and right side of midfield? LA - Josh Saunders (29) - A better choice to start than Jon Conway. Also the most popular expansion draft prediction by every fan out there since Sunday. NE - Amaechi Igwe (22) - Another young player who hasn't gotten much time. Assistant coach John Hackworth is familiar with him from the U17s. 100k salary might be a turn off, but they could negotiate it. SJ - Bobby Convey (27) - Almost too perfect of a story, right? Surely must improve in 2010. Total salaries: ~ $974,000

2010 MLS Superdraft Order & Picks

The 2010 MLS Superdraft is now in the books. Click here for results. I'll leave this list of pre-draft trades up, but now we can start looking ahead to the 2011 MLS Superdraft. Trade/Pick Movement List Round 1 CLB has COL's pick (Noonan) DAL has TOR's pick (Serioux) NY has HOU's pick (Oduro) Round 2 COL has DAL's pick (Ihemelu) COL has DC's pick (Gomez) DAL has CLB's pick (2008 picks) DAL has TOR's pick (Ibrahim) NY has LA's pick (Magee) RSL has DAL's pick (Davies) SJ has DAL's pick (Campos) SJ has HOU's pick (Weaver) TOR has COL's pick (Richardson) The Davies pick is for the lowest of DAL's two second rounders (CLB & TOR; their normal pick is now COL's). That pick now belongs to SJ, after originally being traded to RSL. Round 3 CHV has SJ's pick (Burling) DAL has CLB's pick (2008 picks) HOU has SEA's pick (Ianni) KC has NE's pick (International slot) SJ has TOR's pick (Garcia) The Burling pick doesn't specify whether it's for SJ's original pick or the TOR pick that they also own. I've listed it as SJ's pick, #35, but it could also end up being #37. Ianni's pick was conditional. If he had played in 20 regular season games, the the pick would've became a second rounder. He ended up only playing 17. Round 4 CLB has CHI's pick (Herron) CLB has LA's pick (Miglioranzi, conditional) LA has RSL's pick (Mathis, conditional) Conditional Picks CHI has CHV's pick (Curtin) CHV has TOR's pick (Guevara) LA has DC's pick (Wicks) NE has DC's pick (John) NY has RSL's pick (Kovalenko) RSL has CHV's pick (Talley) SJ has HOU's pick (Weaver) Soccer America said at the time that Chivas is guaranteed a first rounder out of the Guevara deal. Since they got a second rounder in this year's draft, that means they should probably get TFC's 2010 first rounder, right? Of course, Dallas already holds that pick. The Talley pick is a second rounder in either 2010 or 2011. The John pick is also in one of those two years, though a round isn't mentioned. Supplemental Draft Wasted Trades CHI has SJ's 4th round pick (R.Johnson) HOU has DC's 4th round pick (C.Thompson) SJ has LA's pick (Kirovski, conditional) The supplemental draft no longer exists. Generation Adidas Players Every top pick since 2003 has been a GA player (or Project-40, as it was once known). These players are underclassmen signed to contracts before the draft. As they are younger and also don't count against the salary cap, they will almost certainly make up at least half of the first round picks. I highly recommend Buzz Carrick and 3rd Degree's 2010 Generation Adidas tracking page for all the latest news and rumors. On December 10th, 3rd Degree posted the preliminary GA list which includes 30 names. See the link above. Top Seniors On December 10, the 2010 MLS combine player list was released by the league, which includes 62 players. 3rd Degree also posted the list of "senior targets" to possibly be signed before the draft. Two players are on that list who aren't on the combine list: Paulo da Silva (SMU) and Stephen McCarthy (UNC). Those 64 along with the GA players will make up the majority of the draft picks. Besides those 64, what other names are worth remembering? Now that the draft is only days away, there are a few really good sources for detailed information. One is the best blog for following college soccer prospects, Pro Player Pipeline. He has rankings of the top prospects for each position, as does the aforementioned Carrick at ESPN Soccernet. SBI also had some good coverage last year, including the best series of mock drafts on the net. I believe Ives did a very in depth draft day chat last year as well.

Graduating from Generation Adidas

EDIT 11/18/2010 - updated with the 2010 info. When I posted my expansion draft preview recently, the subject that stirred up the most debate was this one. Anyone who's followed MLS for a number of years knows that it's a bit of a mystery. When exactly do Generation Adidas players graduate, and what are the criteria? Basically, players are supposed to graduate when they no longer need the roster protection that it provides. If a player has become a full time starter, then they can easily move up to the senior roster. Players can also leave the program without being moved up by being waived (like David Arvizu, for one); in old press releases such instances were still called graduating. The general length of the contract and the maximum time in the program seems to be four years, though several players have gotten five (Seth Trembly, Devin Barclay, Jed Zayner, and I believe Craig Capano, so their injuries may have been a factor). I've always assumed that it was based on minutes played, and that's a pretty good guideline. The interesting thing about this year is that so many GA rookies are getting significant playing time, raising the possibility that many of them could graduate after one year. That's what I want to focus on for right now. What exactly has it taken in the past for a player to graduate after a single season from GA (or Project-40 as it was formerly known)? I've listed below every member of the program since 2000, and their stats for their first season in the league. I didn't use earlier players for several reasons. First, previous years saw players allocated to teams rather than drafted. Only 3/12 players in 2000 were allocated. Second, some players were graduated in early years with very little playing time. Like Chris Albright, who signed in mid-season and played only 347 minutes. Or Dema Kovalenko, graduated after 291 minutes. Or Tim Howard, graduated after 90 minutes (one game) in 1998. I think that those types of graduations really aren't applicable today. Since 2000, there hasn't been anything like that. Notes: Some players (such as Ramon Nunez) may have had similar protected status but aren't included below. The three columns below (minutes, games played, games started) include only regular season games. First Year GA Player Stats Grad? MIN PCT GP PCT GS PCT 2000 Garcia, N yes 2916 100% 32 100% 32 100% 2005 Parkhurst yes 2880 100% 32 100% 32 100% 2006 Kljestan yes 2676 93% 32 100% 31 97% 2009 Gonzalez, O yes 2672 99% 30 100% 30 100% 2000 Pierce yes 2600 88% 29 91% 29 91% 2003 Clark, R yes 2590 92% 28 93% 28 93% 2004 Marshall, C yes 2446 91% 28 93% 27 90% 2000 Bocanegra yes 2402 81% 27 84% 27 84% 2009 Alston yes 2339 87% 26 87% 26 87% 2009 Frei no 2295 85% 26 87% 26 87% 2009 Wallace, R yes 2265 84% 28 93% 25 83% 2007 Edu yes 2180 81% 25 83% 25 83% 2006 Wynne yes 2170 75% 28 88% 23 72% 2005 Guzan no? 2079 72% 24 75% 23 72% 2004 Dempsey yes 2024 75% 24 80% 23 77% 2000 Rimando no 2002 68% 22 69% 22 69% 2009 Hall yes 2001 74% 24 80% 22 73% 2009 Zakuani yes 1993 74% 29 97% 24 80% 2002 Gray yes 1780 69% 25 89% 20 71% 2003 Magee yes 1709 61% 29 97% 19 63% 2000 Convey no 1614 55% 22 69% 18 56% 2010 Tchani no 1610 60% 27 90% 17 57% 2006 Peterson no 1548 54% 28 88% 17 53% 2000 Califf yes 1518 51% 18 56% 16 50% 2010 Mwanga no 1461 54% 24 80% 17 57% 2004 Cochrane no 1459 54% 18 60% 18 60% 2002 Martino yes 1455 56% 22 79% 15 54% 2010 Bunbury no 1441 53% 26 87% 13 43% 2004 Adu no 1440 53% 30 100% 14 47% 2010 Gavin no 1369 51% 16 53% 16 53% 2003 Pause yes 1354 49% 23 77% 15 50% 2001 Barclay no 1324 54% 23 85% 12 44% 2006 Sturgis no 1247 43% 15 47% 15 47% 2002 Davis, B yes 1246 49% 24 86% 12 43% 2005 Freeman no 1217 42% 20 63% 14 44% 2010 Johnson, S no 1170 43% 13 43% 13 43% 2008 Espinoza, R no 1169 43% 22 73% 12 40% 2001 Carrieri no 1081 45% 19 73% 11 42% 2007 Soumare no 1072 40% 19 63% 11 37% 2005 Ward, T no 1034 36% 13 41% 11 34% 2001 Quaranta no 949 40% 16 62% 10 38% 2008 Beltran no 936 35% 15 50% 10 33% 2005 Moor no 936 33% 20 63% 9 28% 2006 Kamara no 930 32% 19 59% 9 28% 2004 Grabavoy no 928 34% 15 50% 11 37% 2010 Opara no 914 34% 11 37% 10 33% 2008 Guarda no 822 30% 12 40% 9 30% 2005 Watson, J no 818 28% 19 59% 6 19% 2003 Lewis, R no 798 28% 13 43% 7 23% 2003 Eskandarian no 728 26% 23 77% 5 17% 2003 Jaqua no 712 26% 20 67% 5 17% 2003 Gaven no 691 25% 12 40% 7 23% 2008 Myers no 681 25% 10 33% 7 23% 2003 Alvarez, A no 655 23% 15 50% 5 17% 2007 Rogers no 598 22% 10 33% 6 20% 2005 Barrett, C no 597 21% 20 63% 4 13% 2001 Buddle no 556 23% 17 65% 5 19% 2008 Avila no 508 19% 14 47% 3 10% 2009 Husidic no 449 17% 10 33% 5 17% 2010 Okugo no 437 16% 11 37% 4 13% 2004 Szetela no 374 14% 8 27% 4 13% 2010 McInerney no 350 13% 17 57% 1 3% 2006 Altidore no 330 11% 7 22% 3 9% 2002 Akwari no 325 13% 7 25% 3 11% 2005 Pore no 285 10% 8 25% 4 13% 2001 Downing no 279 11% 5 19% 3 11% 2001 Klinger, M no 272 11% 9 35% 2 8% 2001 Bardales no 270 11% 12 46% 1 4% 2007 Seitz no 270 10% 3 10% 3 10% 2001 Johnson, E no 263 11% 11 42% 1 4% 2004 Goodson no 247 9% 5 17% 2 7% 2000 Asad no 246 8% 8 25% 2 6% 2003 LeBlanc no 225 8% 7 23% 2 7% 2006 Movsisyan no 221 8% 10 31% 1 3% 2006 Sims no 219 8% 9 28% 2 6% 2005 John, W no 200 7% 6 19% 2 6% 2000 Cooks, M no 165 6% 5 16% 2 6% 2010 Duka no 160 6% 3 10% 2 7% 2008 Nyarko no 159 6% 9 30% 2 7% 2003 Gonzalez, G no 129 5% 6 20% 1 3% 2010 Bone no 114 4% 5 17% 1 3% 2000 Beckerman no 110 4% 2 6% 1 3% 2009 Cruz no 107 4% 6 20% 0 0% 2001 Burciaga no 93 4% 3 11% 2 7% 2002 Capano no 92 4% 4 14% 1 4% 2002 Stone no 91 3% 4 14% 1 4% 2005 Besagno no 69 2% 2 6% 1 3% 2007 Wallace no 69 3% 1 3% 1 3% 2007 Colaluca no 62 2% 4 13% 0 0% 2009 Marosevic no 47 2% 4 13% 0 0% 2002 Mapp no 28 1% 3 11% 0 0% 2004 Gardner no 25 1% 2 7% 0 0% 2000 Trembly no 21 1% 4 13% 0 0% 2008 O'Brien, C no 19 1% 1 3% 0 0% 2000 Salas, S no 18 1% 1 3% 0 0% 2008 Shea no 17 1% 2 7% 0 0% 2006 McCarty, D no 12 0% 2 6% 0 0% 2006 Ianni no 2 0% 2 6% 0 0% 2009 Bowen no 1 0% 1 3% 0 0% 2007 Sesay no 1 0% 1 3% 0 0% 2007 Arguez no 0 0% 0 0% 0 0% 2006 Arvizu no 0 0% 0 0% 0 0% 2004 Bradley no 0 0% 0 0% 0 0% 2003 Carroll no 0 0% 0 0% 0 0% 2001 Countess no 0 0% 0 0% 0 0% 2004 Cronin no 0 0% 0 0% 0 0% 2007 Ibrahim, F no 0 0% 0 0% 0 0% 2007 Igwe no 0 0% 0 0% 0 0% 2005 Jimenez no 0 0% 0 0% 0 0% 2005 Kirk, Q no 0 0% 0 0% 0 0% 2008 Lambo no 0 0% 0 0% 0 0% 2000 Longo no 0 0% 0 0% 0 0% 2008 Nimo no 0 0% 0 0% 0 0% 2001 Saavedra no 0 0% 0 0% 0 0% 2003 Stokes no 0 0% 0 0% 0 0% 2003 Thompson, J no 0 0% 0 0% 0 0% 2008 Valentino no 0 0% 0 0% 0 0% 2006 Wagner no 0 0% 0 0% 0 0% 2006 Zayner no 0 0% 0 0% 0 0% 2010 Gil no 0 0% 0 0% 0 0% 2010 Wiederman no 0 0% 0 0% 0 0% Thoughts: Interesting how the goalkeepers aren't graduated. Other than those three, every single player with at least 1,700 minutes played has graduated. I thought Guzan graduated, but I don't believe I ever had a source for that. So maybe he didn't, which would make more sense. I changed it to "no???" after listing it as yes before. Other strange decisions? Cochrane and Peterson stand out as players who probably should've graduated. Both started more than half their team's games, but kept their GA status (both through their third season actually). I suppose you could've also made a case for Adu, but it's no surprise that he got a second year. He didn't exactly get those minutes on merit. Among graduates with lesser minutes played, Davis and Marshall were both rookie of the year nominees in 2002, with the latter winning. Califf, I would imagine graduated because he also was a nominee. Although, Adu and Quaranta were both nominated but kept their status. Pause is a curious one. I really wouldn't expect a player to graduate with those kind of numbers. And as someone mentioned on Bigsoccer while I was researching this, he had a lot of playing time early in the season and very little near the end and the playoffs. 10 starts in the first 12 games, and only 5 in the last 18. Second Year Graduates What does it take for players to graduate after their second season? Listing only players who played 500 minutes in one of the two years: Grad? Year 1 Year 2 2004 Bradley yes 0 2628 2003 Gaven yes 691 2578 2009 Frei yes 2295 2520 2007 Soumare yes 1072 2514 2004 Goodson yes 247 2488 2003 Carroll yes 0 2438 2007 Rogers yes 598 2334 2000 Rimando yes 2002 2300 2005 Moor yes 936 2280 2005 Freeman yes 1217 2131 2008 Nyarko yes 159 1983 2008 Beltran yes 936 1860 2003 Jaqua yes 712 1836 2001 Carrieri yes 1081 1830 2003 Eskandarian yes 728 1627 2006 McCarty, D yes 12 1604 2009 Husidic yes 449 1498 2004 Adu yes 1440 1487 2006 Altidore yes 330 1399 2002 Mapp yes 28 1384 2009 Cruz no 107 1362 2001 Buddle yes 556 1304 2006 Sturgis yes 1247 1146 2003 Lewis, R no 798 1144 2006 Peterson no 1548 1118 2004 Szetela no 374 1117 2002 Stone no 91 1057 2006 Movsisyan no 221 993 2005 Kirk no 0 993 2000 Convey yes 1614 992 2000 Asad no 246 978 2006 Ianni no 2 961 2001 Quaranta yes 949 949 2005 Barrett, C no 597 780 2004 Cochrane no 1459 776 2008 Shea no 17 727 2001 Downing no 279 667 2004 Grabavoy no 928 656 2008 Espinoza, R no 1169 635 2005 Ward, T no 1034 605 2007 Igwe no 0 568 2005 Pore no 285 563 2006 Kamara no 930 475 2003 Alvarez, A no 655 374 2008 Avila no 508 332 2001 Barclay no 1324 321 2008 Guarda no 822 217 2008 Myers, C no 681 165 2005 Watson, J no 818 104 Once again, Peterson confounds me (especially when Sturgis did it). He did get less playing time and less starts in the second year than the first. The second season seems to matter more than the first.