2010 MLS Expansion Draft - Preview

Time to start thinking about this once again. This year it's a bit more complicated as two teams will be making selections, but I don't expect the number of protected players (11) to change. Especially since that same number was recently referenced after Portland was announced as picking first on MLSsoccer.com. Whether or not teams will be able to protect an additional player after losing one like in 2004 remains unknown. Before I get into each team's likely 11, it's important to understand a few things about the draft: The Generation Adidas players. As of now, I'm predicting the following 9 to graduate: Colaluca, Cruz, Espinoza, Frei, Gavin, Husidic, Najar, Shea, and Zayner. I feel pretty good about all of those except for Najar, since he's a homegrown player and it's unknown how they'll be treated. Speaking of homegrown players, per the above article they will be exempt. International status is highly important. It's the reason Kansas City had to protect Kevin Souter last year, and why Houston had to protect Guy-Roland Kpene in 2008. You're required to protect at least 3 international players, unless you only have 3 or fewer. The real hiccup here is green cards, which let international players count as domestic and make things complicated. A link to the current salaries is here. Previous expansion draft lists can be found on Wikipedia (where I helped put together several of the articles). Below are my current picks for each team's 11. Players in bold are the ones I consider to be virtual locks to be protected. CHICAGO Protected Available Exempt Calen Carr Mike Banner Corben Bone Nery Castillo C.J. Brown Sean Johnson Wilman Conde Andrew Dykstra Victor Pineda Baggio Husidic Collins John Steven Kinney Krzysztof Krol Freddie Ljungberg Peter Lowry Patrick Nyarko Brian McBride Marco Pappa Dasan Robinson Logan Pause John Thorrington Gonzalo Segares Deris Umanzor Kwame Watson-Siriboe As I talked about in the GA article above, rookie goalkeepers always seem to be given a second year of protected status. So like Stephen Frei a year ago, Johnson should remain GA for 2011 and the Fire shouldn't have to worry about that. There's no reason to protect McBride and his $400k salary, unless he has some sort of no-trade clause. Thorrington has been protected for the past two years, but being injured and costing 200k should mean he's unlikely to be taken. The two DPs may be unlikely selections, but it's hard to leave them off. We'll probably know more about Ljungberg's intentions by the season's end. C.J. Brown is unlikely to leave Chicago, and he's rumored to retire every year. That's why Watson-Siribie is there ahead of him. Carr could easily be usurped by John depending on how the rest of the season goes. CHIVAS USA Protected Available Exempt Carlos Borja Jonathan Bornstein Bryan de la Fuente Justin Braun Chukwudi Chijindu Cesar Zamora Blair Gavin Yamith Cuesta Michael Lahoud Darío Delgado Giancarlo Maldonado Rodolfo Espinoza Paulo Nagamura Jorge Flores Jesus Padilla Maykel Galindo Zach Thornton Alan Gordon Michael Umana Ante Jazic Ben Zemanski Dan Kennedy Sal Zizzo Eduardo Lillingston Gerson Mayen Osael Romero Marcelo Saragosa Mariano Trujillo Alex Zotinca Zizzo didn't sign a GA contract, did he? I didn't see anything to say that he did, like some players who are assigned through weighted lotteries. As always, Chivas is a really hard team to predict due to the lack of media attention and the large number of new foreign players they bring in every year. No less than 5 Chivas players have green cards, and Padilla is an American. The international players are: Cuesta/Delgado/Espinoza/Maldonado/Nagamura/Romero/Umana. Bornstein's departure means he can be left unprotected. If the expansion teams are smart, they'll take him anyway (like Philadelphia should've done with Segares). COLORADO Protected Available Exempt Julien Baudet Andre Akpan Davy Armstrong Conor Casey Quincy Amarikwa Ciaran O'Brien Colin Clark Mehdi Ballouchy Omar Cummings Steward Ceus Kosuke Kimura Danny Earls Jeff Larentowicz Michael Holody Pablo Mastroeni Ian Joyce Drew Moor Ross LaBauex Matt Pickens Claudio Lopez Jamie Smith Scott Palguta Marvell Wynne Ross Schunk Wells Thompson Anthony Wallace Pretty easy to predict for the most part. It's between Smith and Ballouchy for the third international spot (Kimura doesn't count). Amarikwa or Thompson could make an run at the eleven. Some Rapids fans have suggested than Clark could be left unprotected. Will the back to back season ending injuries cause the Rapids to lose a little confidence in him? We'll see. COLUMBUS Protected Available Exempt Brian Carroll Guillermo Barros Schelotto Dilly Duka Emmanuel Ekpo Eric Brunner Shaun Francis Kevin Burns Eddie Gaven Jason Garey William Hesmer Leandre Griffit Andy Iro Andy Gruenebaum Steven Lenhart Frankie Hejduk Chad Marshall Andres Mendoza Adam Moffat Duncan Oughton Danny O'Rourke Gino Padula Emilio Renteria Robbie Rogers Here we have several likely candidates for Portland's first selection. A lot to discuss here. Hejduk wasn't protected a year ago, so that should happen again. Meanwhile, it seems like they might only have room for one of Brunner and Iro. Francis has grabbed the left back position, and is a minimum salary rookie. No question he's protected. So why did I leave Schelotto off? Given his legend-like status with the team, I wouldn't bet against him being protected. However, I feel like he's highly unlikely to be taken. Not because he can't contribute any more, or that he might retire rather than leave the Crew. A team could always pull a Mo Johnston and take him (like Toronto did with Jason Kreis). The thing is, there's several really good choices on the Crew already that make me believe he wouldn't be selected. Toronto only got a partial allocation in return for Kreis; getting Brunner or Rogers is better than that. I haven't even mentioned the international quotas yet. Ekpo already holds a green card, while Iro and Schelotto are reportedly very close to receiving theirs, making them count as domestic. If that happens before the end of the year, then the three protected internationals should be Francis/Moffat/Renteria. The only other choices are Griffit/Mendoza. DALLAS Protected Available Exempt Jair Benitez Eric Alexander Eric Avila David Ferreira Marvin Chavez Bruno Guarda Atiba Harris Jeff Cunningham Josh Lambo Kevin Hartman Kyle Davies Bryan Leyva Daniel Hernandez Edson Edward Ruben Luna Ugo Ihemelu Jackson Peri Marosevic George John Zach Loyd Andrew Wiedeman Dax McCarty Dario Sala Heath Pearce Jason Yeisley Milton Rodriguez Brek Shea Dallas only has a few foreign choices. After Benitez/Ferreira, they'll have to protect one of Chavez/Jackson/Rodriguez (or Guarda if he graduates). Cunningham makes over 200k, and he hasn't been starting. I can't see him taking anyone's place. Alexander or Loyd are probably the next guys in line. Ihemelu makes 150k and Hernandez is 33 years old. Could either lose out to one of those rookies? DC UNITED Protected Available Exempt Marc Burch Danny Allsopp Bill Hamid Pablo Hernandez Brandon Barklage Conor Shanosky Dejan Jakovic Branko Boskovic Julius James Adam Cristman Stephen King Jordan Graye Andy Najar Devon McTavish Santino Quaranta Jaime Moreno Chris Pontius Kurt Morsink Clyde Simms Andrew Quinn Rodney Wallace Juan Manuel Pena Jed Zayner Troy Perkins Barry Rice Carey Talley Jakovic/James are locks due to the internationals rule. The third could be Allsopp/Boskovic/Hernandez/Pena. King and Zayner should be protected due to the investment that DC has in them (the draft picks traded). I could easily see Graye making this list as well, maybe in place of Quaranta? The addition of Zayner could push him back in the pecking order, though. Speaking of investment, does that mean Perkins could be protected? It has to be a decent possibility despite his salary and level of play this season. Anyway, the big question for DC is whether or not Najar is going to graduate to senior roster status. HOUSTON Protected Available Exempt Bobby Boswell Samuel Appiah Tyler Deric Geoff Cameron Corey Ashe Francisco Navas Cobo Brian Ching Mike Chabala Danny Cruz Ryan Cochrane Brad Davis Richard Mulrooney Andrew Hainault Joseph Ngwenya Tally Hall Pat Onstad Brian Mullan Eddie Robinson Anthony Obodai Adrian Serioux Dominic Oduro Cam Weaver Lovel Palmer 3/5 following internationals: Appiah/Hainault/Obodai/Palmer/Serioux. Ngwenya holds a green card, as does Onstad. There isn't a whole lot of mystery here. Hall was protected a year ago, so I assume he'll continue to be. Ashe was protected last season, but not in the previous three years. Along with Ashe/Hall, Chabala/Oduro are cheap players getting a lot of playing time. Which ones represent the future of the team? Could they be favored over a vet like Mullan? I remember Wade Barrett was left off after 2008, and that was the beginning of the end for him. KANSAS CITY Protected Available Exempt Davy Arnaud Korede Aiyegbusi Teal Bunbury Stephane Auvray Jamar Beasley Chance Myers Matt Besler Sunil Chhetri Jimmy Conrad Birahim Diop Roger Espinoza Zoltan Hercegfalvi Michael Harrington Aaron Hohlbein Kei Kamara Jack Jewsbury Jimmy Nielsen Nick Kounenakis Craig Rocastle Eric Kronberg Ryan Smith Jonathan Leathers Shavar Thomas Josh Wolff Graham Zusi One of the easiest teams to predict. If Myers graduates from GA, then he's a lock. I don't believe Omar Bravo will need to be protected, since he won't join the team until next season. Who else on the available list could be protected? Maybe Zusi. Certainly not Wolff. LOS ANGELES Protected Available Exempt David Beckham Gregg Berhalter Tristan Bowen Chris Birchall Alex Cazumba Edson Buddle Bryan Jordan A. J. DeLaGarza Juninho Landon Donovan Jovan Kirovski Todd Dunivant Chris Klein Sean Franklin Dema Kovalenko Omar Gonzalez Eddie Lewis Mike Magee Leonardo Donovan Ricketts Yohance Marshall Michael Stephens Brian Perk Josh Saunders Loan players are really tricky to predict. It's possible that the Galaxy could protect several of their Brazilians, especially Juninho, rather than the non-locks listed. Other than that, it's another easy list. I only list two changes from last year: Dunivant/Stephens instead of Berhalter/Kovalenko. Dunivant is probably the final guy, and may be left out once again. But I don't see any of the non-Brazilians beating him out. I mean, Berhalter is 37 and makes $180,000. NEW ENGLAND Protected Available Exempt Kevin Alston Zak Boggs Darrius Barnes Preston Burpo Kheli Dube Nico Colaluca Cory Gibbs Jason Griffiths Shalrie Joseph Edgaras Jankauskas Kenny Mansally Roberto Linck Sainey Nyassi Tim Murray Emmanuel Osei Pat Phelan Marko Perovic Bobby Shuttleworth Matt Reis Seth Sinovic Zack Schilawski Khano Smith Ilija Stolica Chris Tierney Taylor Twellman It looks as though Twellman will be finally left unprotected, if he doesn't retire. Currently, he's one of only 34 players to be protected every year from 2006-09. Dube has been protected for two straight seasons, though it seems like Revolution fans don't think he deserves to be there this year. Boggs/Phelan/Sinovic/Tierney may be in contention. Stolica should be left off thanks to his big contract (218k), while the status of Perovic/Reis may be up in the air also due to money (180k each). NEW YORK Protected Available Exempt Chris Albright Danleigh Borman Juan Agudelo Juan Pablo Angel Andrew Boyens Giorgi Chirgadze Bouna Coundoul Conor Chinn Tony Tchani Thierry Henry Austin da Luz Macoumba Kandji Irving Garcia Joel Lindpere Jeremy Hall Rafael Marquez Salou Ibrahim Carlos Mendes Roy Miller Tim Ream Brian Nielsen Dane Richards Mike Petke Seth Stammler Luke Sassano Greg Sutton Carl Robinson Sinisa Ubiparipovic Hall and Miller were the final two off. Those are the only two I could see breaking into the list, it's pretty cut and dry. I think Albright is a more likely selection at this point. Luckily for NY, Tchani is probably going to be GA for another season (unless he plays every minute from here on out). PHILADELPHIA Protected Available Exempt Danny Califf Cristian Arrieta Jack McInerney Eduardo Coudet Jordan Harvey Danny Mwanga Fred Brad Knighton Amobi Okugo Juan Diego Gonzalez Stefani Miglioranzi Andrew Jacobson Kyle Nakazawa Sebastien Le Toux J.T. Noone Justin Mapp Shea Salinas Alejandro Moreno Toni Stahl Michael Orozco Fiscal Nick Zimmerman Chris Seitz Roger Torres Another team where a GA graduation could have a big impact. As of now, I don't have Mwanga graduating, but that could change. There are only four international players, three of which must be protected: Coudet/Gonzalez/Stahl/Torres. That's because another four players (Fred/Le Toux/Moreno/Miglioranzi) all hold green cards. It certainly isn't optimal for the Union to protect a Coudet or Stahl, but they'll have to. BTW, Mwanga also holds a green card. So even if he graduates, he won't affect this problem. With large $250,000 salaries, Califf/Fred could easily be unprotected. But who among the available has earned their way onto the list? Possibly Miglioranzi and Nakazawa. REAL SALT LAKE Protected Available Exempt Kyle Beckerman Jean Alexandre Luis Gil Tony Beltran Pablo Campos Nat Borchers David Horst Fabian Espindola Nelson Gonzalez Robbie Findley Ned Grabavoy Will Johnson Rauwshan McKenzie Javier Morales Tim Melia Jamison Olave Kyle Reynish Nick Rimando Robbie Russell Alvaro Saborio Chris Schuler Chris Wingert Collen Warner Andy Williams Findley's contract situation will have an impact. If he leaves, that could be good news in regards to this draft, as they'd get to protect someone else (like Alexandre or Gonzalez). I know they really like Gonzalez, but do they like him enough to save him over Beltran or Wingert? He is on loan, so I suppose that complicates things in their favor. Grabavoy/Russell/Williams were all unprotected last year and should stay that way. SAN JOSE Protected Available Exempt Steven Beitashour Arturo Alvarez Ike Opara Bobby Burling Joe Cannon Jon Busch Bobby Convey Sam Cronin Ramiro Corrales Geovanni Eduardo Joey Gjertsen Cornell Glen Jason Hernandez Omar Jasseh Brandon McDonald Ryan Johnson Scott Sealy Chris Leitch Khari Stephenson Andre Luiz Chris Wondolowski Justin Morrow Brad Ring Tim Ward Opara's injury may help them in the long run, as before it happened he would've easily gotten enough minutes to graduate. Meanwhile, the three internationals seem to be easy picks. Geovanni/Sealy/Stephenson yes, Eduardo/Glen/Jasseh/Luiz no. Johnson is a green card holder. But after that, this is one of the harder teams to predict. Convey and his big salary were unprotected a year ago, so at $250k this year, why not do that again? It would also seem likely that Busch (84k) is protected over Cannon (190k), and that Alvarez (183k) and Corrales (150k) are left out. They could also choose to protect no goalkeeper, since they were switching back and forth this year. SEATTLE Protected Available Exempt Osvaldo Alonso Terry Boss Brad Evans David Estrada Alvaro Fernandez Michael Fucito Leo Gonzalez Taylor Graham Jhon Kennedy Hurtado Kasey Keller Patrick Ianni Roger Levesque Nate Jaqua Tyrone Marshall Fredy Montero Miguel Montano Blaise Nkufo Pat Noonan Jeff Parke Sanna Nyassi Steve Zakuani James Riley Mike Seamon Zach Scott Nathan Sturgis Peter Vagenas Tyson Wahl Like the Crew and Schelotto, I just don't think it makes a ton of sense to protect Keller. If he does make the list, or they decide to go with a younger player, then it could be Jaqua or Parke losing their spots. Let's also see how big of an impact Nkufo has the rest of the year. It was a surprise to see them protect Marshall a year ago, but I don't think that'll happen again. I currently have center backs Hurtado/Ianni/Parke all protected, so that's plenty. Of course, Ianni can play at DM so I don't think it's too many. Riley once again should be left off, but I wonder if Nyassi could still make his way into the 2010 eleven. TORONTO Protected Available Exempt Nana Attakora Jon Conway Doneil Henry Chad Barrett Gabe Gala Fuad Ibrahim Adrian Cann Nick Garcia Julian de Guzman Dan Gargan Dwayne De Rosario Emmanuel Gomez Stefan Frei Ty Harden Nane Joseph Raivis Hscanovics Nick LaBrocca Milos Kocic Amadou Sanyang Mista Maicon Santos Jacob Peterson O'Brian White Martin Saric Maxim Usanov Would anyone take de Guzman? I don't think they'll expose him, regardless. Mista, on the other hand, seems an easy choice to leave out. It's more important than normal to keep the Canadian talent with Vancouver picking. I don't that will impact the list much (if at all), but it's still something to keep in mind. Gomez's injury seemingly will make him safe to leave off, while Ibrahim's possible GA graduation could take away a spot depending on how high they value him.