Expansion Draft 2010 Protected Lists Out

So much for doing a final preview. I've spent the past hour updating the Wikipedia article, since MLS only includes the unprotected players in their news articles. I've included all the protected players as well as exempt, so check it out: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2010_MLS_Expansion_Draft Also, it's nice to see so many teams making smart trades before the draft. Today's Rapids trade is especially smart - getting rid of international players so you can protect more Americans. Has any team made more smart trades in a single year than Colorado?

2010 MLS Expansion Draft - Preview

Time to start thinking about this once again. This year it's a bit more complicated as two teams will be making selections, but I don't expect the number of protected players (11) to change. Especially since that same number was recently referenced after Portland was announced as picking first on MLSsoccer.com. Whether or not teams will be able to protect an additional player after losing one like in 2004 remains unknown. Before I get into each team's likely 11, it's important to understand a few things about the draft: The Generation Adidas players. As of now, I'm predicting the following 9 to graduate: Colaluca, Cruz, Espinoza, Frei, Gavin, Husidic, Najar, Shea, and Zayner. I feel pretty good about all of those except for Najar, since he's a homegrown player and it's unknown how they'll be treated. Speaking of homegrown players, per the above article they will be exempt. International status is highly important. It's the reason Kansas City had to protect Kevin Souter last year, and why Houston had to protect Guy-Roland Kpene in 2008. You're required to protect at least 3 international players, unless you only have 3 or fewer. The real hiccup here is green cards, which let international players count as domestic and make things complicated. A link to the current salaries is here. Previous expansion draft lists can be found on Wikipedia (where I helped put together several of the articles). Below are my current picks for each team's 11. Players in bold are the ones I consider to be virtual locks to be protected. CHICAGO Protected Available Exempt Calen Carr Mike Banner Corben Bone Nery Castillo C.J. Brown Sean Johnson Wilman Conde Andrew Dykstra Victor Pineda Baggio Husidic Collins John Steven Kinney Krzysztof Krol Freddie Ljungberg Peter Lowry Patrick Nyarko Brian McBride Marco Pappa Dasan Robinson Logan Pause John Thorrington Gonzalo Segares Deris Umanzor Kwame Watson-Siriboe As I talked about in the GA article above, rookie goalkeepers always seem to be given a second year of protected status. So like Stephen Frei a year ago, Johnson should remain GA for 2011 and the Fire shouldn't have to worry about that. There's no reason to protect McBride and his $400k salary, unless he has some sort of no-trade clause. Thorrington has been protected for the past two years, but being injured and costing 200k should mean he's unlikely to be taken. The two DPs may be unlikely selections, but it's hard to leave them off. We'll probably know more about Ljungberg's intentions by the season's end. C.J. Brown is unlikely to leave Chicago, and he's rumored to retire every year. That's why Watson-Siribie is there ahead of him. Carr could easily be usurped by John depending on how the rest of the season goes. CHIVAS USA Protected Available Exempt Carlos Borja Jonathan Bornstein Bryan de la Fuente Justin Braun Chukwudi Chijindu Cesar Zamora Blair Gavin Yamith Cuesta Michael Lahoud Darío Delgado Giancarlo Maldonado Rodolfo Espinoza Paulo Nagamura Jorge Flores Jesus Padilla Maykel Galindo Zach Thornton Alan Gordon Michael Umana Ante Jazic Ben Zemanski Dan Kennedy Sal Zizzo Eduardo Lillingston Gerson Mayen Osael Romero Marcelo Saragosa Mariano Trujillo Alex Zotinca Zizzo didn't sign a GA contract, did he? I didn't see anything to say that he did, like some players who are assigned through weighted lotteries. As always, Chivas is a really hard team to predict due to the lack of media attention and the large number of new foreign players they bring in every year. No less than 5 Chivas players have green cards, and Padilla is an American. The international players are: Cuesta/Delgado/Espinoza/Maldonado/Nagamura/Romero/Umana. Bornstein's departure means he can be left unprotected. If the expansion teams are smart, they'll take him anyway (like Philadelphia should've done with Segares). COLORADO Protected Available Exempt Julien Baudet Andre Akpan Davy Armstrong Conor Casey Quincy Amarikwa Ciaran O'Brien Colin Clark Mehdi Ballouchy Omar Cummings Steward Ceus Kosuke Kimura Danny Earls Jeff Larentowicz Michael Holody Pablo Mastroeni Ian Joyce Drew Moor Ross LaBauex Matt Pickens Claudio Lopez Jamie Smith Scott Palguta Marvell Wynne Ross Schunk Wells Thompson Anthony Wallace Pretty easy to predict for the most part. It's between Smith and Ballouchy for the third international spot (Kimura doesn't count). Amarikwa or Thompson could make an run at the eleven. Some Rapids fans have suggested than Clark could be left unprotected. Will the back to back season ending injuries cause the Rapids to lose a little confidence in him? We'll see. COLUMBUS Protected Available Exempt Brian Carroll Guillermo Barros Schelotto Dilly Duka Emmanuel Ekpo Eric Brunner Shaun Francis Kevin Burns Eddie Gaven Jason Garey William Hesmer Leandre Griffit Andy Iro Andy Gruenebaum Steven Lenhart Frankie Hejduk Chad Marshall Andres Mendoza Adam Moffat Duncan Oughton Danny O'Rourke Gino Padula Emilio Renteria Robbie Rogers Here we have several likely candidates for Portland's first selection. A lot to discuss here. Hejduk wasn't protected a year ago, so that should happen again. Meanwhile, it seems like they might only have room for one of Brunner and Iro. Francis has grabbed the left back position, and is a minimum salary rookie. No question he's protected. So why did I leave Schelotto off? Given his legend-like status with the team, I wouldn't bet against him being protected. However, I feel like he's highly unlikely to be taken. Not because he can't contribute any more, or that he might retire rather than leave the Crew. A team could always pull a Mo Johnston and take him (like Toronto did with Jason Kreis). The thing is, there's several really good choices on the Crew already that make me believe he wouldn't be selected. Toronto only got a partial allocation in return for Kreis; getting Brunner or Rogers is better than that. I haven't even mentioned the international quotas yet. Ekpo already holds a green card, while Iro and Schelotto are reportedly very close to receiving theirs, making them count as domestic. If that happens before the end of the year, then the three protected internationals should be Francis/Moffat/Renteria. The only other choices are Griffit/Mendoza. DALLAS Protected Available Exempt Jair Benitez Eric Alexander Eric Avila David Ferreira Marvin Chavez Bruno Guarda Atiba Harris Jeff Cunningham Josh Lambo Kevin Hartman Kyle Davies Bryan Leyva Daniel Hernandez Edson Edward Ruben Luna Ugo Ihemelu Jackson Peri Marosevic George John Zach Loyd Andrew Wiedeman Dax McCarty Dario Sala Heath Pearce Jason Yeisley Milton Rodriguez Brek Shea Dallas only has a few foreign choices. After Benitez/Ferreira, they'll have to protect one of Chavez/Jackson/Rodriguez (or Guarda if he graduates). Cunningham makes over 200k, and he hasn't been starting. I can't see him taking anyone's place. Alexander or Loyd are probably the next guys in line. Ihemelu makes 150k and Hernandez is 33 years old. Could either lose out to one of those rookies? DC UNITED Protected Available Exempt Marc Burch Danny Allsopp Bill Hamid Pablo Hernandez Brandon Barklage Conor Shanosky Dejan Jakovic Branko Boskovic Julius James Adam Cristman Stephen King Jordan Graye Andy Najar Devon McTavish Santino Quaranta Jaime Moreno Chris Pontius Kurt Morsink Clyde Simms Andrew Quinn Rodney Wallace Juan Manuel Pena Jed Zayner Troy Perkins Barry Rice Carey Talley Jakovic/James are locks due to the internationals rule. The third could be Allsopp/Boskovic/Hernandez/Pena. King and Zayner should be protected due to the investment that DC has in them (the draft picks traded). I could easily see Graye making this list as well, maybe in place of Quaranta? The addition of Zayner could push him back in the pecking order, though. Speaking of investment, does that mean Perkins could be protected? It has to be a decent possibility despite his salary and level of play this season. Anyway, the big question for DC is whether or not Najar is going to graduate to senior roster status. HOUSTON Protected Available Exempt Bobby Boswell Samuel Appiah Tyler Deric Geoff Cameron Corey Ashe Francisco Navas Cobo Brian Ching Mike Chabala Danny Cruz Ryan Cochrane Brad Davis Richard Mulrooney Andrew Hainault Joseph Ngwenya Tally Hall Pat Onstad Brian Mullan Eddie Robinson Anthony Obodai Adrian Serioux Dominic Oduro Cam Weaver Lovel Palmer 3/5 following internationals: Appiah/Hainault/Obodai/Palmer/Serioux. Ngwenya holds a green card, as does Onstad. There isn't a whole lot of mystery here. Hall was protected a year ago, so I assume he'll continue to be. Ashe was protected last season, but not in the previous three years. Along with Ashe/Hall, Chabala/Oduro are cheap players getting a lot of playing time. Which ones represent the future of the team? Could they be favored over a vet like Mullan? I remember Wade Barrett was left off after 2008, and that was the beginning of the end for him. KANSAS CITY Protected Available Exempt Davy Arnaud Korede Aiyegbusi Teal Bunbury Stephane Auvray Jamar Beasley Chance Myers Matt Besler Sunil Chhetri Jimmy Conrad Birahim Diop Roger Espinoza Zoltan Hercegfalvi Michael Harrington Aaron Hohlbein Kei Kamara Jack Jewsbury Jimmy Nielsen Nick Kounenakis Craig Rocastle Eric Kronberg Ryan Smith Jonathan Leathers Shavar Thomas Josh Wolff Graham Zusi One of the easiest teams to predict. If Myers graduates from GA, then he's a lock. I don't believe Omar Bravo will need to be protected, since he won't join the team until next season. Who else on the available list could be protected? Maybe Zusi. Certainly not Wolff. LOS ANGELES Protected Available Exempt David Beckham Gregg Berhalter Tristan Bowen Chris Birchall Alex Cazumba Edson Buddle Bryan Jordan A. J. DeLaGarza Juninho Landon Donovan Jovan Kirovski Todd Dunivant Chris Klein Sean Franklin Dema Kovalenko Omar Gonzalez Eddie Lewis Mike Magee Leonardo Donovan Ricketts Yohance Marshall Michael Stephens Brian Perk Josh Saunders Loan players are really tricky to predict. It's possible that the Galaxy could protect several of their Brazilians, especially Juninho, rather than the non-locks listed. Other than that, it's another easy list. I only list two changes from last year: Dunivant/Stephens instead of Berhalter/Kovalenko. Dunivant is probably the final guy, and may be left out once again. But I don't see any of the non-Brazilians beating him out. I mean, Berhalter is 37 and makes $180,000. NEW ENGLAND Protected Available Exempt Kevin Alston Zak Boggs Darrius Barnes Preston Burpo Kheli Dube Nico Colaluca Cory Gibbs Jason Griffiths Shalrie Joseph Edgaras Jankauskas Kenny Mansally Roberto Linck Sainey Nyassi Tim Murray Emmanuel Osei Pat Phelan Marko Perovic Bobby Shuttleworth Matt Reis Seth Sinovic Zack Schilawski Khano Smith Ilija Stolica Chris Tierney Taylor Twellman It looks as though Twellman will be finally left unprotected, if he doesn't retire. Currently, he's one of only 34 players to be protected every year from 2006-09. Dube has been protected for two straight seasons, though it seems like Revolution fans don't think he deserves to be there this year. Boggs/Phelan/Sinovic/Tierney may be in contention. Stolica should be left off thanks to his big contract (218k), while the status of Perovic/Reis may be up in the air also due to money (180k each). NEW YORK Protected Available Exempt Chris Albright Danleigh Borman Juan Agudelo Juan Pablo Angel Andrew Boyens Giorgi Chirgadze Bouna Coundoul Conor Chinn Tony Tchani Thierry Henry Austin da Luz Macoumba Kandji Irving Garcia Joel Lindpere Jeremy Hall Rafael Marquez Salou Ibrahim Carlos Mendes Roy Miller Tim Ream Brian Nielsen Dane Richards Mike Petke Seth Stammler Luke Sassano Greg Sutton Carl Robinson Sinisa Ubiparipovic Hall and Miller were the final two off. Those are the only two I could see breaking into the list, it's pretty cut and dry. I think Albright is a more likely selection at this point. Luckily for NY, Tchani is probably going to be GA for another season (unless he plays every minute from here on out). PHILADELPHIA Protected Available Exempt Danny Califf Cristian Arrieta Jack McInerney Eduardo Coudet Jordan Harvey Danny Mwanga Fred Brad Knighton Amobi Okugo Juan Diego Gonzalez Stefani Miglioranzi Andrew Jacobson Kyle Nakazawa Sebastien Le Toux J.T. Noone Justin Mapp Shea Salinas Alejandro Moreno Toni Stahl Michael Orozco Fiscal Nick Zimmerman Chris Seitz Roger Torres Another team where a GA graduation could have a big impact. As of now, I don't have Mwanga graduating, but that could change. There are only four international players, three of which must be protected: Coudet/Gonzalez/Stahl/Torres. That's because another four players (Fred/Le Toux/Moreno/Miglioranzi) all hold green cards. It certainly isn't optimal for the Union to protect a Coudet or Stahl, but they'll have to. BTW, Mwanga also holds a green card. So even if he graduates, he won't affect this problem. With large $250,000 salaries, Califf/Fred could easily be unprotected. But who among the available has earned their way onto the list? Possibly Miglioranzi and Nakazawa. REAL SALT LAKE Protected Available Exempt Kyle Beckerman Jean Alexandre Luis Gil Tony Beltran Pablo Campos Nat Borchers David Horst Fabian Espindola Nelson Gonzalez Robbie Findley Ned Grabavoy Will Johnson Rauwshan McKenzie Javier Morales Tim Melia Jamison Olave Kyle Reynish Nick Rimando Robbie Russell Alvaro Saborio Chris Schuler Chris Wingert Collen Warner Andy Williams Findley's contract situation will have an impact. If he leaves, that could be good news in regards to this draft, as they'd get to protect someone else (like Alexandre or Gonzalez). I know they really like Gonzalez, but do they like him enough to save him over Beltran or Wingert? He is on loan, so I suppose that complicates things in their favor. Grabavoy/Russell/Williams were all unprotected last year and should stay that way. SAN JOSE Protected Available Exempt Steven Beitashour Arturo Alvarez Ike Opara Bobby Burling Joe Cannon Jon Busch Bobby Convey Sam Cronin Ramiro Corrales Geovanni Eduardo Joey Gjertsen Cornell Glen Jason Hernandez Omar Jasseh Brandon McDonald Ryan Johnson Scott Sealy Chris Leitch Khari Stephenson Andre Luiz Chris Wondolowski Justin Morrow Brad Ring Tim Ward Opara's injury may help them in the long run, as before it happened he would've easily gotten enough minutes to graduate. Meanwhile, the three internationals seem to be easy picks. Geovanni/Sealy/Stephenson yes, Eduardo/Glen/Jasseh/Luiz no. Johnson is a green card holder. But after that, this is one of the harder teams to predict. Convey and his big salary were unprotected a year ago, so at $250k this year, why not do that again? It would also seem likely that Busch (84k) is protected over Cannon (190k), and that Alvarez (183k) and Corrales (150k) are left out. They could also choose to protect no goalkeeper, since they were switching back and forth this year. SEATTLE Protected Available Exempt Osvaldo Alonso Terry Boss Brad Evans David Estrada Alvaro Fernandez Michael Fucito Leo Gonzalez Taylor Graham Jhon Kennedy Hurtado Kasey Keller Patrick Ianni Roger Levesque Nate Jaqua Tyrone Marshall Fredy Montero Miguel Montano Blaise Nkufo Pat Noonan Jeff Parke Sanna Nyassi Steve Zakuani James Riley Mike Seamon Zach Scott Nathan Sturgis Peter Vagenas Tyson Wahl Like the Crew and Schelotto, I just don't think it makes a ton of sense to protect Keller. If he does make the list, or they decide to go with a younger player, then it could be Jaqua or Parke losing their spots. Let's also see how big of an impact Nkufo has the rest of the year. It was a surprise to see them protect Marshall a year ago, but I don't think that'll happen again. I currently have center backs Hurtado/Ianni/Parke all protected, so that's plenty. Of course, Ianni can play at DM so I don't think it's too many. Riley once again should be left off, but I wonder if Nyassi could still make his way into the 2010 eleven. TORONTO Protected Available Exempt Nana Attakora Jon Conway Doneil Henry Chad Barrett Gabe Gala Fuad Ibrahim Adrian Cann Nick Garcia Julian de Guzman Dan Gargan Dwayne De Rosario Emmanuel Gomez Stefan Frei Ty Harden Nane Joseph Raivis Hscanovics Nick LaBrocca Milos Kocic Amadou Sanyang Mista Maicon Santos Jacob Peterson O'Brian White Martin Saric Maxim Usanov Would anyone take de Guzman? I don't think they'll expose him, regardless. Mista, on the other hand, seems an easy choice to leave out. It's more important than normal to keep the Canadian talent with Vancouver picking. I don't that will impact the list much (if at all), but it's still something to keep in mind. Gomez's injury seemingly will make him safe to leave off, while Ibrahim's possible GA graduation could take away a spot depending on how high they value him.

2010 GA Graduation Predictions

Which players will graduate from Generation Adidas status and have to be protected in the expansion draft come November? I wrote a detailed post last year about how many minutes it takes for 1st and 2nd year players to graduate; it's been updated with the final 2009 stats and can be found here. Class of 2006 Jed Zayner, DC Really surprised when he was given a 5th year. Only a handful of others have done that. I'm sure Columbus was thinking ahead to this year's draft when they recently traded him. Nobody gets a 6th year, so he's a lock to graduate. EDIT: It turns out that Zayner is no longer a GA player. He didn't graduate after last season, so he was GA for the expansion draft. However, his contract expired at the end of 2009 and he was signed to a new (non-GA) one for this season. Class of 2007 Nico Colaluca, NE Fuad Ibrahim, TOR Last season, they surprisingly graduated Chris Seitz and Anthony Wallace yet left these two alone. Wallace only had 826 career minutes compared to Ibrahim's 690 (which was more than Seitz's 630). Getting a 5th year is rare, as I mentioned. Even though Ibrahim is young and is on pace for 400 minutes, he probably still should graduate. The only question is that first year, where he was only 15. I remember there was some weird thing about him not officially joining FC Dallas and not counting on the roster. So I'm inclined to think that even though it goes against the norm, he'll probably be given another year. Colaluca is pretty irrelevant as he wouldn't be protected anyway. I'll say he graduates (and probably gets cut). Class of 2008 Eric Avila, DAL Roger Espinoza, KC Bruno Guarda, DAL Josh Lambo, DAL Chance Myers, KC Alex Nimo, RSL Ciaran O'Brien, COL Brek Shea, DAL Espinoza and Shea are locks to graduate. Espinoza was a borderline case last year, while Shea has clearly become a full time starter and impressed. I'd think that the others wouldn't, but you never know after last year with the two third year players who did. Guarda/Lambo/Nimo/O'Brien definitely shouldn't, while for Avila/Myers there might be an outside chance. But have either really nailed down a roster spot? At least you could make that argument with Seitz last year, but not for Anthony Wallace - little playing time, no guaranteed spot, and only 20 years old at the time. It still doesn't make sense. Class of 2009 Danny Cruz, HOU Stefan Frei, TOR Baggio Husidic, CHI Peri Marosevic, DAL Frei is a stone cold lock. Shocking that he was given another year in the first place. Husidic has become a starter and already played 1,173 minutes. No second year player since 2000 with that many minutes played (1,146+) has ever failed to graduate, so he seems a safe bet. Cruz has already played 871 through 19 games, so he's on pace for 1,375. If he gets over 1,300, there should be no question. He's looked pretty solid for the Dynamo as well. Marosevic is a non-factor. Class of 2010 Corben Bone, CHI Teal Bunbury, KC Dilly Duka, CLB Blair Gavin, CHV Luis Gil, RSL Sean Johnson, CHI Jack McInerney, PHI Danny Mwanga, PHI Amobi Okugo, PHI Ike Opara, SJ Toni Tchani, NY Andrew Wiederman, DAL Is Sal Zizzo a GA or protected player? I forget. Oh well, it doesn't matter. Let's start with Johnson. Even if he starts every remaining match for the Fire, based on Frei's situation I don't expect graduation. That's the fair outcome given what happened there. There's only five players with a real chance. That's unlike last year, where it was more a question of who wouldn't. Gavin has started 16/18 matches and already racked up 1,369 minutes. The odds are overwhelming in his favor right now, and he probably only needs four more starts to be a lock. The other four are Bunbury/Mwanga/Opara/Tchani, and all have an outside chance. Opara was starting full time and on his way to graduation, but broke his foot and will miss the next six weeks. That should pretty much rule him out. He'd have to come back and play 90 in the last 6-7 matches to have a shot. Although it hurts them this year, this should end up helping the Earthquakes by letting them protect another player in the expansion draft and having an extra senior roster spot next year. The other three basically need to start full time the rest of the season, and I don't see that happening. After five first year graduates last year, we'll likely only see one after 2010. Here's the stats for the contenders (the magic number is about 1,700): Min GP GS Proj Min Gavin 1369 16 16 2282 Opara 914 11 10 1613 Bunbury 768 16 7 1280 Tchani 716 15 6 1193 Mwanga 644 12 7 1136 Homegrown Signings Two contenders here: Tristan Bowen (LA) and Andy Najar (DC). The latter has become a starter and is on pace for 1,800 minutes. He should be favored to graduate. Bowen, however, has yet to lock down a starting place and is only on pace for 1,100 minutes. I know the second year threshold is lower, but I'd bet against his graduation even with a bit more playing time. We don't know if they'll treat these GA's any differently. Conclusion 9 players are predicted to graduate: Colaluca, NE Cruz, HOU Espinoza, KC Frei, TOR Gavin, CHV Husidic, CHI Najar, DC Shea, DAL Zayner, DC

Expansion Draft Lists Out

I've spent the last hour or so updating the Wikipedia page, so check that out: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2009_MLS_Expansion_Draft The MLS press release has some errors on the Generation Adidas graduates. However, it appears that all of the following players have graduated: Alston, Kevin Beltran, Tony Gonzalez, Omar Hall, Jeremy Igwe, Amaechi Nyarko, Patrick Seitz, Chris Wallace, Anthony Wallace, Rodney Zakuani, Steve Zayner, Jed I've confirmed this based on protected lists and team press releases (all except for Zayner, who's certainly not gonna get a 5th year). EDIT: MLS has issued an updated press release which confirms the above list, except for Zayner. Really, they've going to give him a 5th year? Surely that's another mistake. I know he was injured, but... How does that differ from the list I was predicting? Well, it seems that Stefan Frei has been given another year, which is very surprising. I know Nick Rimando started all year in 2000 and didn't graduate, but Brad Guzan did and he's the only comparable player since then. At least I'm pretty sure Guzan did, I have him listed as doing so but I can't find the source. Frei really should've graduated, since he clearly established himself as the starter and played 90% of the season. MLS did graduate Chris Seitz, I guess due to the fact that he is a lock to make the roster and also that he's had three years. How you graduate Seitz and not Frei mystifies me. Also graduating are 2007 draftees Amaechi Igwe and Anthony Wallace, which is another surprise. Apparently due to the larger senior roster (or smaller developmental roster), they're going to get these guys out earlier. But tell me how this makes sense: Igwe and Wallace have played 1,196 and 826 minutes in three seasons respectively. They graduated, yet Roger Espinoza has played 1,169 and 635 minutes in his two years and didn't. So I have to believe that the third year is what did it. Overall, I missed 26 out of 165 protected players from my final preview the other day. Two of those were due to Seitz and Frei. EDIT: Here's my predictions on who Philadelphia will take. These things are always really tough to analyze; who would've guessed Jarrod Smith last year for example? If I can get more than three right, I'd be ecstatic. I expect Philadelphia will take more veteran and expensive players this year because they haven't signed anyone yet. At this point last year Seattle already had committed to $800,000 against the cap with Keller, Ljungberg, and Le Toux. So I don't think it's too unrealistic that they could take somebody like Luciano Emilio or Amado Guevara (who SBI and Goal.com both seem to expect will be taken). (2010 age in parentheses) CHI - Gonzalo Segares (27) - Even if there's only a 25% of him staying, it's worth the risk. It's not like all ten picks will end up on the roster anyway. Why not take the chance? CHV - Shavar Thomas (29) - Solid defender. CLB - Alejandro Moreno (30) - Won't score a lot, but it's not just about the goals. Every year his team ends up being good. COL - Greg Dalby (24) - Cheap player who was very highly regarded coming out of college. Hasn't gotten a real opportunity to show his potential. DC - Devon McTavish (25) - Versatile player can fill in at several positions. HOU - Eddie Robinson (31) - Former Best XI player coming off a big injury. KC - Herculez Gomez (28) - Cheap attacking player. Maybe him and Convey on the left and right side of midfield? LA - Josh Saunders (29) - A better choice to start than Jon Conway. Also the most popular expansion draft prediction by every fan out there since Sunday. NE - Amaechi Igwe (22) - Another young player who hasn't gotten much time. Assistant coach John Hackworth is familiar with him from the U17s. 100k salary might be a turn off, but they could negotiate it. SJ - Bobby Convey (27) - Almost too perfect of a story, right? Surely must improve in 2010. Total salaries: ~ $974,000

Expansion Draft 2009 - Final Protected Lists Preview

Time to revisit my projections for the last time. Who will be available for the Philadelphia Union to select? The rules were announced recently, and they're exactly the same as the past few drafts. The following players should graduate from Generation Adidas status: Alston, Beltran, Frei, Gonzalez, Hall, Nyarko, Wallace, Zakuani, and Zayner. I would be extremely shocked if any of them didn't graduate, or if any other GA players did. See this post for further info on how minutes played affects GA status and graduation. I'll also be updating the Wikipedia article on the 2009 MLS Expansion Draft. What normally happens is, MLS only releases the lists of exposed players. So you have to do a little work to figure out who actually was protected, including figuring out GA statuses. So next week I'll be updating that page for everyone's convenience. I'll be sure to post my predictions for who will be selected by Peter Nowak and Philly when the lists are final. In the following post, "changes" refers to how my projections have changed since the last time I posted them. Previous Projections August 21 - Eastern Conference August 22 - Western Conference September 17 - Preview #2 CHICAGO Protected Available Exempt Mike Banner Cuauhtemoc Blanco Baggio Husidic Jon Busch C.J. Brown Wilman Conde Calen Carr Peter Lowry Stefan Dimitrov Patrick Nyarko Andrew Dykstra Marco Pappa Justin Mapp Logan Pause Brian McBride Dasan Robinson David Myrie Gonzalo Segares Brandon Prideaux John Thorrington Chris Rolfe Tim Ward Austin Washington Daniel Woolard Changes: Lowry for Blanco. I feel extremely confident on 8 of these players. The other three are Lowry, Pappa, and Segares. Lowry should be protected because of his potential and low salary (developmental player). Segares is out of contract, but he's not a lock to leave and he's a highly valuable player. I still think he merits protection. That's not unprecedented, NE did it with Parkhurst last year. Pappa is complicated because of his loan situation, which is up after the season. It seems likely that he'll be back though, and if so he's an important member of the team. The Fire will have to protect at least one of either Pappa or Segares, and he's probably more likely. I still think there's actually a chance Mapp could be protected despite the high salary. He was a Best XI player only a few years ago, though I suppose the cheap Woolard might be a smarter choice. CHIVAS USA Protected Available Exempt Jonathan Bornstein Justin Braun Yamith Cuesta Chukwudi Chijindu Jorge Flores Jon Conway Maykel Galindo Jim Curtin Sacha Kljestan Maicon Santos Michael Lahoud Kevin Harmse Jesse Marsch Ante Jazic Paulo Nagamura Dan Kennedy Jesus Padilla Eduardo Lillingston Shavar Thomas Gerson Mayen Zach Thornton Lance Parker Ante Razov Marcelo Saragosa Bojan Stepanovic Claudio Suarez Carey Talley Mariano Trujillo Sasha Victorine Cesar Zamora Changes: Cuesta/Flores/Padilla for Braun/Lillingston/Trujillo. The biggest change is Preki leaving. Who knows how that will affect the Chivas list, which was already one of the hardest teams to predict. I feel Bornstein/Galindo/Kljestan/Lahoud/Thornton are locks. They also need three international players, which is complicated by the fact that Galindo/Jazic/Saragosa/Trujillo all hold green cards and that Padilla is an American. So they must protect at least three out of Cuesta/Harmse/Lillingston/Nagamura/Santos/Stepanovic/Thomas. That's even messier when you realize that Nagamura is out of contract and Cuesta/Santos are on loans. I'd say Nagamura probably still deserves protection, and Thomas might be the best bet of the group. I'll go out on a limb and pick Cuesta as the third international despite the loan, since he started in the playoffs and he's only 20. Who gets the last three spots? Padilla will probably play a bigger role next year, and Flores has potential (even though he wasn't protected a year ago). Marsch has been a key player for the team despite his age. It might be wise to to protect him because of the former Fire connection with Nowak. This does leave off a couple of notable players. Braun is a decent bet to end up on a the list, but he was a Preki signing and he hasn't exactly lit up the back of net. COLORADO Protected Available Exempt Mehdi Ballouchy Julien Baudet Ciaran O'Brien Conor Casey Preston Burpo Rob Valentino Colin Clark Steward Ceus Omar Cummings Greg Dalby Cory Gibbs Facundo Diz Jordan Harvey Ty Harden Kosuke Kimura Michael Holody Nick LaBrocca Pat Noonan Pablo Mastroeni Scott Palguta Drew Moor Jacob Peterson Matt Pickens Ross Schunk Jamie Smith Changes: Kimura for Smith. I've been following what Jason of View From The Couch is projecting, so as a result I've included Kimura. However, I just can't put Baudet or Smith in the eleven. They both make over $150,000 and were brought in by Gary Smith, which means that the odds of either being selected are virtually zero. Jason also excludes Gibbs, which I can't agree with no matter what Gary Smith thinks of Cory. Even if they're plan on going into 2010 without him, he could bring something in a trade. Palguta or Peterson could have an outside shot at making the list, too. COLUMBUS Protected Available Exempt G. Barros Schelotto Kevin Burns Eric Brunner Cory Elenio Brian Carroll Jason Garey Emmanuel Ekpo Alex Grendi Eddie Gaven Andy Gruenebaum William Hesmer Frankie Hejduk Chad Marshall Andy Iro Danny O'Rourke Steven Lenhart Gino Padula Adam Moffat Robbie Rogers Alejandro Moreno Jed Zayner Duncan Oughton Emilio Renteria Kenny Schoeni Changes: Gaven/Zayner for Hejduk/Moreno. After the playoffs and the Denmark game, does anybody still want Hejduk to be protected? I've been reading the Crew forum on Bigsoccer, and they certainly don't. Zayner is much more likely to be selected by Philadelphia. Gaven was left off the list last season, but he's played well and could be selected despite his $173,250 salary. He belongs in the eleven this year. Lenhart and Moreno split time up top, so be leaving both off they'll still have at least one next year. Lenhart is probably the last man left off. If they're higher on him than Zayner, then they could make that switch. DALLAS Protected Available Exempt Jair Benitez Ray Burse Eric Avila Marvin Chavez Daniel Hernandez Bruno Guarda Jeff Cunningham Steve Purdy Josh Lambo Kyle Davies Pablo Ricchetti Peri Marosevic David Ferreira Andre Rocha Brek Shea Atiba Harris Daniel Torres Anthony Wallace Ugo Ihemelu Blake Wagner George John Dave van den Bergh Dax McCarty Heath Pearce Dario Sala Changes: Chavez/Sala for Ricchetti/van den Bergh. Ricchetti burned his bridges and is gone. Buzz at 3rd Degree suggests Harris over van den Bergh for the final spot, so I've made that change as well. VDB's inclusion is the only possible change I could see. DC UNITED Protected Available Exempt Marc Burch Ely Allen Dejan Jakovic Brandon Barklage Julius James John DiRaimondo Thabiso Khumalo Luciano Emilio Bryan Namoff Fred Chris Pontius Christian Gomez Santino Quaranta David Habarugira Clyde Simms Andrew Jacobson Danny Szetela Greg Janicki Rodney Wallace Avery John Josh Wicks Milos Kocic Devon McTavish Jaime Moreno Ange N'Silu Ben Olsen Tiyiselani Shipalane Lawson Vaughn Steve Cronin Changes: Burch/Khumalo for Fred/Moreno. With Olsen's retirement and Soehn's departure, it seems like change is in the air at DC United. If you're going to leave off Emilio and Gomez, then you might as well leave off Fred and Moreno as well. Khumalo is included because of the need for three internationals. The issue here could be "no trade" clauses. If designated player Emilio were to have one, for example, then he would take away a domestic player spot (as a green card holder). HOUSTON Protected Available Exempt Corey Ashe Wade Barrett Danny Cruz Bobby Boswell Ricardo Clark Geoff Cameron Ryan Cochrane Mike Chabala Tyler Deric Brian Ching Tally Hall Brad Davis John Michael Hayden Andrew Hainault Luis Angel Landin Stuart Holden Richard Mulrooney Brian Mullan Pat Onstad Dominic Oduro Eddie Robinson Cam Weaver Abe Thompson Erik Ustruck Craig Waibel Changes: Chabala/Weaver for Clark/Landin. Clark is leaving on a free transfer and Landin was a huge disappointment. Based on their playing time down the stretch, Chabala and Weaver seem next in line and they're both cheap. Barrett/Mulrooney/Onstad were already left unprotected a year ago, so I'd expect that to happen again. Holden's out of contract too, but you could at least picture him staying (or maybe not). If I were Nowak and Holden were unprotected, I'd take him. Why not take that chance even if it's really slim? KANSAS CITY Protected Available Exempt Davy Arnaud Adam Cristman Roger Espinoza Matt Besler Herculez Gomez Chance Myers Jimmy Conrad Aaron Hohlbein Michael Harrington Michael Kraus Kevin Hartman Eric Kronberg Zoltan Hercegfalvi Jonathan Leathers Santiago Hirsig Matt Marquess Jack Jewsbury Rauwshan McKenzie Kei Kamara Kurt Morsink Claudio Lopez Boris Pardo Josh Wolff Kevin Souter Lance Watson Graham Zusi Changes: Hartman for Watson. Seems pretty cut and dry. Down the Byline suggests Zusi instead of Wolff. Could he or Watson make the list instead of an older player? LOS ANGELES Protected Available Exempt David Beckham Todd Dunivant Tristan Bowen Gregg Berhalter Alecko Eskandarian Chris Birchall Alan Gordon Edson Buddle Leonard Griffin A.J. DeLaGarza Bryan Jordan Landon Donovan Jovan Kirovski Sean Franklin Chris Klein Omar Gonzalez Eddie Lewis Dema Kovalenko Yohance Marshall Mike Magee Stefani Miglioranzi Donovan Ricketts Kyle Patterson Tony Sanneh Josh Saunders Julian Valentin Changes: Berhalter/Kovalenko for Dunivant/Eskandarian. Bruce Arena protected Kovalenko back in 2006 when he was with NY, so I now expect the same thing to happen again. Along with Kovalenko, Berhalter has been huge down the strech and he seems a more likely choice than Dunivant, who can be replaced by DeLaGarza. NEW ENGLAND Protected Available Exempt Kevin Alston Chris Albright Nico Colaluca Darrius Barnes Stephane Assengue Amaechi Igwe Jay Heaps Gabriel Badilla Shalrie Joseph Mauricio Castro Jeff Larentowicz Kheli Dube Kenny Mansally Edgaras Jankauskas Sainey Nyassi Brad Knighton Emmanuel Osei Pat Phelan Steve Ralston Bobby Shuttleworth Matt Reis Wells Thompson Taylor Twellman Chris Tierney Michael Videira Changes: None. Larentowicz is out of contract, but as I mentioned above, they still protected Parkhurst last year. The big question is whether or not they'll protect Twellman. He's been injured for over a year and has one of the league's highest salaries. I think that it's still the smart move to do so. Kheli Dube (likely the 12th man in the pecking order) is clearly not on the same level even at his best. NEW YORK Protected Available Exempt Juan Pablo Angel Danleigh Borman Bouna Coundoul Andrew Boyens Kevin Goldthwaite Albert Celades Jeremy Hall Danny Cepero Carlos Johnson Walter Garcia Macoumba Kandji Leo Krupnik Ernst Oebster Carlos Mendes Dane Richards Matthew Mbuta Luke Sassano Mike Petke Seth Stammler Jorge Rojas Sinisa Ubiparipovic John Wolyniec Nick Zimmerman Changes: Boundoul/Johnson for Celades/Cepero. Boundoul won the starting keeper job down the stretch, while Celades announced his retirement. Without Celades, they'll need to protect another foreign player, so I selected Johnson over Rojas. REAL SALT LAKE Protected Available Exempt Kyle Beckerman Jean Alexandre Alex Nimo Tony Beltran Pablo Campos Chris Seitz Nat Borchers Raphael Cox Fabian Espindola Rachid El Khalifi Robbie Findley Nelson Gonzalez Will Johnson Ned Grabavoy Javier Morales David Horst Jamison Olave Clint Mathis Nick Rimando Yura Movsisyan Robbie Russell Tino Nunez Chris Wingert Kyle Reynish Andy Williams Changes: Russell for Campos. 10 players are stone cold locks. Russell is the exception. Will it be him, Campos, Grabavoy or maybe Alexandre who completes the list? We'll see what Kreis is thinking. Russell was protected a year ago so I think that tilts it in his favor. SAN JOSE Protected Available Exempt Arturo Alvarez Bobby Burling Quincy Amarikwa Ramiro Corrales Joe Cannon Simon Elliott Bobby Convey Mike Graczyk Cornell Glen Darren Huckerby Jason Hernandez Chris Leitch Ryan Johnson Brandon McDonald Andre Luiz Aaron Pitchkolan Shea Salinas Antonio Ribeiro Ramon Sanchez Jamil Roberts Chris Wondolowski Andrew Weber Michael Zaher Changes: Wondolowski for McDonald. As I've said before, no matter how much some people want Convey out of SJ and think he would be a perfect fit, I don't think he'll be unprotected. He has too much talent, it's too perfect of a scenario with the Philly hometown kid coming home, and also he holds value in a trade if they go that route. SEATTLE Protected Available Exempt Osvaldo Alonso Terry Boss Brad Evans Evan Brown Leo Gonzalez Chris Eylander Jhon Kennedy Hurtado Michael Fucito Patrick Ianni Taylor Graham Nate Jaqua Stephen King Kasey Keller Roger Levesque Freddie Ljungberg Sebastien Le Toux Fredy Montero Tyrone Marshall James Riley Lamar Neagle Steve Zakuani Sanna Nyassi Zach Scott Nathan Sturgis Peter Vagenas Tyson Wahl Changes: None. I suppose Le Toux, Levesque, and Nyassi have an outside chance, possibly at the expense of Riley. TORONTO Protected Available Exempt Nana Attakora Jim Brennan Fuad Ibrahim Chad Barrett Brian Edwards Sam Cronin Lesly Fellinga Julian de Guzman Gabe Gala Dwayne De Rosario Nick Garcia Stefan Frei Ali Gerba Emmanuel Gomez Amado Guevara Amadou Sanyang Carl Robinson Adrian Serioux Pablo Vitti O'Brian White Marvell Wynne Changes: None. What was a nightmare to project when I first did this back in August now seems easy. The high-priced Guevara/Robinson/Vitti should be unselectable and easy to exclude. Meanwhile, Garcia played his way off.