Expansion Draft 2009 - Final Protected Lists Preview

Time to revisit my projections for the last time. Who will be available for the Philadelphia Union to select? The rules were announced recently, and they're exactly the same as the past few drafts. The following players should graduate from Generation Adidas status: Alston, Beltran, Frei, Gonzalez, Hall, Nyarko, Wallace, Zakuani, and Zayner. I would be extremely shocked if any of them didn't graduate, or if any other GA players did. See this post for further info on how minutes played affects GA status and graduation. I'll also be updating the Wikipedia article on the 2009 MLS Expansion Draft. What normally happens is, MLS only releases the lists of exposed players. So you have to do a little work to figure out who actually was protected, including figuring out GA statuses. So next week I'll be updating that page for everyone's convenience. I'll be sure to post my predictions for who will be selected by Peter Nowak and Philly when the lists are final. In the following post, "changes" refers to how my projections have changed since the last time I posted them. Previous Projections August 21 - Eastern Conference August 22 - Western Conference September 17 - Preview #2 CHICAGO Protected Available Exempt Mike Banner Cuauhtemoc Blanco Baggio Husidic Jon Busch C.J. Brown Wilman Conde Calen Carr Peter Lowry Stefan Dimitrov Patrick Nyarko Andrew Dykstra Marco Pappa Justin Mapp Logan Pause Brian McBride Dasan Robinson David Myrie Gonzalo Segares Brandon Prideaux John Thorrington Chris Rolfe Tim Ward Austin Washington Daniel Woolard Changes: Lowry for Blanco. I feel extremely confident on 8 of these players. The other three are Lowry, Pappa, and Segares. Lowry should be protected because of his potential and low salary (developmental player). Segares is out of contract, but he's not a lock to leave and he's a highly valuable player. I still think he merits protection. That's not unprecedented, NE did it with Parkhurst last year. Pappa is complicated because of his loan situation, which is up after the season. It seems likely that he'll be back though, and if so he's an important member of the team. The Fire will have to protect at least one of either Pappa or Segares, and he's probably more likely. I still think there's actually a chance Mapp could be protected despite the high salary. He was a Best XI player only a few years ago, though I suppose the cheap Woolard might be a smarter choice. CHIVAS USA Protected Available Exempt Jonathan Bornstein Justin Braun Yamith Cuesta Chukwudi Chijindu Jorge Flores Jon Conway Maykel Galindo Jim Curtin Sacha Kljestan Maicon Santos Michael Lahoud Kevin Harmse Jesse Marsch Ante Jazic Paulo Nagamura Dan Kennedy Jesus Padilla Eduardo Lillingston Shavar Thomas Gerson Mayen Zach Thornton Lance Parker Ante Razov Marcelo Saragosa Bojan Stepanovic Claudio Suarez Carey Talley Mariano Trujillo Sasha Victorine Cesar Zamora Changes: Cuesta/Flores/Padilla for Braun/Lillingston/Trujillo. The biggest change is Preki leaving. Who knows how that will affect the Chivas list, which was already one of the hardest teams to predict. I feel Bornstein/Galindo/Kljestan/Lahoud/Thornton are locks. They also need three international players, which is complicated by the fact that Galindo/Jazic/Saragosa/Trujillo all hold green cards and that Padilla is an American. So they must protect at least three out of Cuesta/Harmse/Lillingston/Nagamura/Santos/Stepanovic/Thomas. That's even messier when you realize that Nagamura is out of contract and Cuesta/Santos are on loans. I'd say Nagamura probably still deserves protection, and Thomas might be the best bet of the group. I'll go out on a limb and pick Cuesta as the third international despite the loan, since he started in the playoffs and he's only 20. Who gets the last three spots? Padilla will probably play a bigger role next year, and Flores has potential (even though he wasn't protected a year ago). Marsch has been a key player for the team despite his age. It might be wise to to protect him because of the former Fire connection with Nowak. This does leave off a couple of notable players. Braun is a decent bet to end up on a the list, but he was a Preki signing and he hasn't exactly lit up the back of net. COLORADO Protected Available Exempt Mehdi Ballouchy Julien Baudet Ciaran O'Brien Conor Casey Preston Burpo Rob Valentino Colin Clark Steward Ceus Omar Cummings Greg Dalby Cory Gibbs Facundo Diz Jordan Harvey Ty Harden Kosuke Kimura Michael Holody Nick LaBrocca Pat Noonan Pablo Mastroeni Scott Palguta Drew Moor Jacob Peterson Matt Pickens Ross Schunk Jamie Smith Changes: Kimura for Smith. I've been following what Jason of View From The Couch is projecting, so as a result I've included Kimura. However, I just can't put Baudet or Smith in the eleven. They both make over $150,000 and were brought in by Gary Smith, which means that the odds of either being selected are virtually zero. Jason also excludes Gibbs, which I can't agree with no matter what Gary Smith thinks of Cory. Even if they're plan on going into 2010 without him, he could bring something in a trade. Palguta or Peterson could have an outside shot at making the list, too. COLUMBUS Protected Available Exempt G. Barros Schelotto Kevin Burns Eric Brunner Cory Elenio Brian Carroll Jason Garey Emmanuel Ekpo Alex Grendi Eddie Gaven Andy Gruenebaum William Hesmer Frankie Hejduk Chad Marshall Andy Iro Danny O'Rourke Steven Lenhart Gino Padula Adam Moffat Robbie Rogers Alejandro Moreno Jed Zayner Duncan Oughton Emilio Renteria Kenny Schoeni Changes: Gaven/Zayner for Hejduk/Moreno. After the playoffs and the Denmark game, does anybody still want Hejduk to be protected? I've been reading the Crew forum on Bigsoccer, and they certainly don't. Zayner is much more likely to be selected by Philadelphia. Gaven was left off the list last season, but he's played well and could be selected despite his $173,250 salary. He belongs in the eleven this year. Lenhart and Moreno split time up top, so be leaving both off they'll still have at least one next year. Lenhart is probably the last man left off. If they're higher on him than Zayner, then they could make that switch. DALLAS Protected Available Exempt Jair Benitez Ray Burse Eric Avila Marvin Chavez Daniel Hernandez Bruno Guarda Jeff Cunningham Steve Purdy Josh Lambo Kyle Davies Pablo Ricchetti Peri Marosevic David Ferreira Andre Rocha Brek Shea Atiba Harris Daniel Torres Anthony Wallace Ugo Ihemelu Blake Wagner George John Dave van den Bergh Dax McCarty Heath Pearce Dario Sala Changes: Chavez/Sala for Ricchetti/van den Bergh. Ricchetti burned his bridges and is gone. Buzz at 3rd Degree suggests Harris over van den Bergh for the final spot, so I've made that change as well. VDB's inclusion is the only possible change I could see. DC UNITED Protected Available Exempt Marc Burch Ely Allen Dejan Jakovic Brandon Barklage Julius James John DiRaimondo Thabiso Khumalo Luciano Emilio Bryan Namoff Fred Chris Pontius Christian Gomez Santino Quaranta David Habarugira Clyde Simms Andrew Jacobson Danny Szetela Greg Janicki Rodney Wallace Avery John Josh Wicks Milos Kocic Devon McTavish Jaime Moreno Ange N'Silu Ben Olsen Tiyiselani Shipalane Lawson Vaughn Steve Cronin Changes: Burch/Khumalo for Fred/Moreno. With Olsen's retirement and Soehn's departure, it seems like change is in the air at DC United. If you're going to leave off Emilio and Gomez, then you might as well leave off Fred and Moreno as well. Khumalo is included because of the need for three internationals. The issue here could be "no trade" clauses. If designated player Emilio were to have one, for example, then he would take away a domestic player spot (as a green card holder). HOUSTON Protected Available Exempt Corey Ashe Wade Barrett Danny Cruz Bobby Boswell Ricardo Clark Geoff Cameron Ryan Cochrane Mike Chabala Tyler Deric Brian Ching Tally Hall Brad Davis John Michael Hayden Andrew Hainault Luis Angel Landin Stuart Holden Richard Mulrooney Brian Mullan Pat Onstad Dominic Oduro Eddie Robinson Cam Weaver Abe Thompson Erik Ustruck Craig Waibel Changes: Chabala/Weaver for Clark/Landin. Clark is leaving on a free transfer and Landin was a huge disappointment. Based on their playing time down the stretch, Chabala and Weaver seem next in line and they're both cheap. Barrett/Mulrooney/Onstad were already left unprotected a year ago, so I'd expect that to happen again. Holden's out of contract too, but you could at least picture him staying (or maybe not). If I were Nowak and Holden were unprotected, I'd take him. Why not take that chance even if it's really slim? KANSAS CITY Protected Available Exempt Davy Arnaud Adam Cristman Roger Espinoza Matt Besler Herculez Gomez Chance Myers Jimmy Conrad Aaron Hohlbein Michael Harrington Michael Kraus Kevin Hartman Eric Kronberg Zoltan Hercegfalvi Jonathan Leathers Santiago Hirsig Matt Marquess Jack Jewsbury Rauwshan McKenzie Kei Kamara Kurt Morsink Claudio Lopez Boris Pardo Josh Wolff Kevin Souter Lance Watson Graham Zusi Changes: Hartman for Watson. Seems pretty cut and dry. Down the Byline suggests Zusi instead of Wolff. Could he or Watson make the list instead of an older player? LOS ANGELES Protected Available Exempt David Beckham Todd Dunivant Tristan Bowen Gregg Berhalter Alecko Eskandarian Chris Birchall Alan Gordon Edson Buddle Leonard Griffin A.J. DeLaGarza Bryan Jordan Landon Donovan Jovan Kirovski Sean Franklin Chris Klein Omar Gonzalez Eddie Lewis Dema Kovalenko Yohance Marshall Mike Magee Stefani Miglioranzi Donovan Ricketts Kyle Patterson Tony Sanneh Josh Saunders Julian Valentin Changes: Berhalter/Kovalenko for Dunivant/Eskandarian. Bruce Arena protected Kovalenko back in 2006 when he was with NY, so I now expect the same thing to happen again. Along with Kovalenko, Berhalter has been huge down the strech and he seems a more likely choice than Dunivant, who can be replaced by DeLaGarza. NEW ENGLAND Protected Available Exempt Kevin Alston Chris Albright Nico Colaluca Darrius Barnes Stephane Assengue Amaechi Igwe Jay Heaps Gabriel Badilla Shalrie Joseph Mauricio Castro Jeff Larentowicz Kheli Dube Kenny Mansally Edgaras Jankauskas Sainey Nyassi Brad Knighton Emmanuel Osei Pat Phelan Steve Ralston Bobby Shuttleworth Matt Reis Wells Thompson Taylor Twellman Chris Tierney Michael Videira Changes: None. Larentowicz is out of contract, but as I mentioned above, they still protected Parkhurst last year. The big question is whether or not they'll protect Twellman. He's been injured for over a year and has one of the league's highest salaries. I think that it's still the smart move to do so. Kheli Dube (likely the 12th man in the pecking order) is clearly not on the same level even at his best. NEW YORK Protected Available Exempt Juan Pablo Angel Danleigh Borman Bouna Coundoul Andrew Boyens Kevin Goldthwaite Albert Celades Jeremy Hall Danny Cepero Carlos Johnson Walter Garcia Macoumba Kandji Leo Krupnik Ernst Oebster Carlos Mendes Dane Richards Matthew Mbuta Luke Sassano Mike Petke Seth Stammler Jorge Rojas Sinisa Ubiparipovic John Wolyniec Nick Zimmerman Changes: Boundoul/Johnson for Celades/Cepero. Boundoul won the starting keeper job down the stretch, while Celades announced his retirement. Without Celades, they'll need to protect another foreign player, so I selected Johnson over Rojas. REAL SALT LAKE Protected Available Exempt Kyle Beckerman Jean Alexandre Alex Nimo Tony Beltran Pablo Campos Chris Seitz Nat Borchers Raphael Cox Fabian Espindola Rachid El Khalifi Robbie Findley Nelson Gonzalez Will Johnson Ned Grabavoy Javier Morales David Horst Jamison Olave Clint Mathis Nick Rimando Yura Movsisyan Robbie Russell Tino Nunez Chris Wingert Kyle Reynish Andy Williams Changes: Russell for Campos. 10 players are stone cold locks. Russell is the exception. Will it be him, Campos, Grabavoy or maybe Alexandre who completes the list? We'll see what Kreis is thinking. Russell was protected a year ago so I think that tilts it in his favor. SAN JOSE Protected Available Exempt Arturo Alvarez Bobby Burling Quincy Amarikwa Ramiro Corrales Joe Cannon Simon Elliott Bobby Convey Mike Graczyk Cornell Glen Darren Huckerby Jason Hernandez Chris Leitch Ryan Johnson Brandon McDonald Andre Luiz Aaron Pitchkolan Shea Salinas Antonio Ribeiro Ramon Sanchez Jamil Roberts Chris Wondolowski Andrew Weber Michael Zaher Changes: Wondolowski for McDonald. As I've said before, no matter how much some people want Convey out of SJ and think he would be a perfect fit, I don't think he'll be unprotected. He has too much talent, it's too perfect of a scenario with the Philly hometown kid coming home, and also he holds value in a trade if they go that route. SEATTLE Protected Available Exempt Osvaldo Alonso Terry Boss Brad Evans Evan Brown Leo Gonzalez Chris Eylander Jhon Kennedy Hurtado Michael Fucito Patrick Ianni Taylor Graham Nate Jaqua Stephen King Kasey Keller Roger Levesque Freddie Ljungberg Sebastien Le Toux Fredy Montero Tyrone Marshall James Riley Lamar Neagle Steve Zakuani Sanna Nyassi Zach Scott Nathan Sturgis Peter Vagenas Tyson Wahl Changes: None. I suppose Le Toux, Levesque, and Nyassi have an outside chance, possibly at the expense of Riley. TORONTO Protected Available Exempt Nana Attakora Jim Brennan Fuad Ibrahim Chad Barrett Brian Edwards Sam Cronin Lesly Fellinga Julian de Guzman Gabe Gala Dwayne De Rosario Nick Garcia Stefan Frei Ali Gerba Emmanuel Gomez Amado Guevara Amadou Sanyang Carl Robinson Adrian Serioux Pablo Vitti O'Brian White Marvell Wynne Changes: None. What was a nightmare to project when I first did this back in August now seems easy. The high-priced Guevara/Robinson/Vitti should be unselectable and easy to exclude. Meanwhile, Garcia played his way off.