Saturday, November 21, 2009

Expansion Draft 2009 - Final Protected Lists Preview

Time to revisit my projections for the last time. Who will be available for the Philadelphia Union to select? The rules were announced recently, and they're exactly the same as the past few drafts.

The following players should graduate from Generation Adidas status: Alston, Beltran, Frei, Gonzalez, Hall, Nyarko, Wallace, Zakuani, and Zayner. I would be extremely shocked if any of them didn't graduate, or if any other GA players did. See this post for further info on how minutes played affects GA status and graduation.

I'll also be updating the Wikipedia article on the 2009 MLS Expansion Draft. What normally happens is, MLS only releases the lists of exposed players. So you have to do a little work to figure out who actually was protected, including figuring out GA statuses. So next week I'll be updating that page for everyone's convenience.

I'll be sure to post my predictions for who will be selected by Peter Nowak and Philly when the lists are final.

In the following post, "changes" refers to how my projections have changed since the last time I posted them.

Previous Projections


Protected Available Exempt
Mike Banner Cuauhtemoc Blanco
Baggio Husidic
Jon Busch
C.J. Brown
Wilman Conde
Calen Carr

Peter Lowry
Stefan Dimitrov
Patrick Nyarko Andrew Dykstra
Marco Pappa Justin Mapp
Logan Pause Brian McBride
Dasan Robinson David Myrie
Gonzalo Segares Brandon Prideaux
John Thorrington Chris Rolfe
Tim Ward Austin Washington

Daniel Woolard

Changes: Lowry for Blanco.

I feel extremely confident on 8 of these players. The other three are Lowry, Pappa, and Segares.

Lowry should be protected because of his potential and low salary (developmental player). Segares is out of contract, but he's not a lock to leave and he's a highly valuable player. I still think he merits protection. That's not unprecedented, NE did it with Parkhurst last year.

Pappa is complicated because of his loan situation, which is up after the season. It seems likely that he'll be back though, and if so he's an important member of the team. The Fire will have to protect at least one of either Pappa or Segares, and he's probably more likely.

I still think there's actually a chance Mapp could be protected despite the high salary. He was a Best XI player only a few years ago, though I suppose the cheap Woolard might be a smarter choice.


Protected Available
Jonathan Bornstein Justin Braun
Yamith Cuesta Chukwudi Chijindu
Jorge Flores Jon Conway
Maykel Galindo Jim Curtin
Sacha Kljestan Maicon Santos
Michael Lahoud Kevin Harmse
Jesse Marsch Ante Jazic
Paulo Nagamura Dan Kennedy
Jesus Padilla Eduardo Lillingston
Shavar Thomas Gerson Mayen
Zach Thornton Lance Parker

Ante Razov

Marcelo Saragosa

Bojan Stepanovic

Claudio Suarez

Carey Talley

Mariano Trujillo

Sasha Victorine

Cesar Zamora

Changes: Cuesta/Flores/Padilla for Braun/Lillingston/Trujillo.

The biggest change is Preki leaving. Who knows how that will affect the Chivas list, which was already one of the hardest teams to predict. I feel Bornstein/Galindo/Kljestan/Lahoud/Thornton are locks.

They also need three international players, which is complicated by the fact that Galindo/Jazic/Saragosa/Trujillo all hold green cards and that Padilla is an American. So they must protect at least three out of Cuesta/Harmse/Lillingston/Nagamura/Santos/Stepanovic/Thomas. That's even messier when you realize that Nagamura is out of contract and Cuesta/Santos are on loans. I'd say Nagamura probably still deserves protection, and Thomas might be the best bet of the group. I'll go out on a limb and pick Cuesta as the third international despite the loan, since he started in the playoffs and he's only 20.

Who gets the last three spots? Padilla will probably play a bigger role next year, and Flores has potential (even though he wasn't protected a year ago). Marsch has been a key player for the team despite his age. It might be wise to to protect him because of the former Fire connection with Nowak.

This does leave off a couple of notable players. Braun is a decent bet to end up on a the list, but he was a Preki signing and he hasn't exactly lit up the back of net.


Protected Available Exempt
Mehdi Ballouchy Julien Baudet
Ciaran O'Brien
Conor Casey Preston Burpo Rob Valentino
Colin Clark Steward Ceus

Omar Cummings Greg Dalby
Cory Gibbs Facundo Diz
Jordan Harvey Ty Harden
Kosuke Kimura
Michael Holody
Nick LaBrocca
Pat Noonan

Pablo Mastroeni
Scott Palguta

Drew Moor
Jacob Peterson

Matt Pickens
Ross Schunk

Jamie Smith

Changes: Kimura for Smith.

I've been following what Jason of View From The Couch is projecting, so as a result I've included Kimura. However, I just can't put Baudet or Smith in the eleven. They both make over $150,000 and were brought in by Gary Smith, which means that the odds of either being selected are virtually zero.

Jason also excludes Gibbs, which I can't agree with no matter what Gary Smith thinks of Cory. Even if they're plan on going into 2010 without him, he could bring something in a trade. Palguta or Peterson could have an outside shot at making the list, too.


Protected Available Exempt
G. Barros Schelotto Kevin Burns
Eric Brunner Cory Elenio
Brian Carroll Jason Garey
Emmanuel Ekpo Alex Grendi
Eddie Gaven
Andy Gruenebaum
William Hesmer Frankie Hejduk
Chad Marshall Andy Iro
Danny O'Rourke Steven Lenhart
Gino Padula Adam Moffat
Robbie Rogers Alejandro Moreno

Jed Zayner
Duncan Oughton

Emilio Renteria

Kenny Schoeni

Changes: Gaven/Zayner for Hejduk/Moreno.

After the playoffs and the Denmark game, does anybody still want Hejduk to be protected? I've been reading the Crew forum on Bigsoccer, and they certainly don't. Zayner is much more likely to be selected by Philadelphia.

Gaven was left off the list last season, but he's played well and could be selected despite his $173,250 salary. He belongs in the eleven this year. Lenhart and Moreno split time up top, so be leaving both off they'll still have at least one next year.

Lenhart is probably the last man left off. If they're higher on him than Zayner, then they could make that switch.


Protected Available Exempt
Jair Benitez
Ray Burse
Eric Avila
Marvin Chavez
Daniel Hernandez Bruno Guarda
Jeff Cunningham Steve Purdy
Josh Lambo
Kyle Davies Pablo Ricchetti Peri Marosevic
David Ferreira Andre Rocha Brek Shea
Atiba Harris Daniel Torres
Anthony Wallace
Ugo Ihemelu Blake Wagner
George John Dave van den Bergh
Dax McCarty

Heath Pearce

Dario Sala

Changes: Chavez/Sala for Ricchetti/van den Bergh.

Ricchetti burned his bridges and is gone.

Buzz at 3rd Degree suggests Harris over van den Bergh for the final spot, so I've made that change as well. VDB's inclusion is the only possible change I could see.


Protected Available Exempt
Marc Burch
Ely Allen
Dejan Jakovic Brandon Barklage
Julius James John DiRaimondo
Thabiso Khumalo
Luciano Emilio
Bryan Namoff Fred

Chris Pontius Christian Gomez
Santino Quaranta David Habarugira
Clyde Simms Andrew Jacobson
Danny Szetela Greg Janicki
Rodney Wallace Avery John
Josh Wicks Milos Kocic

Devon McTavish

Jaime Moreno

Ange N'Silu

Ben Olsen

Tiyiselani Shipalane

Lawson Vaughn

Steve Cronin

Changes: Burch/Khumalo for Fred/Moreno.

With Olsen's retirement and Soehn's departure, it seems like change is in the air at DC United. If you're going to leave off Emilio and Gomez, then you might as well leave off Fred and Moreno as well. Khumalo is included because of the need for three internationals.

The issue here could be "no trade" clauses. If designated player Emilio were to have one, for example, then he would take away a domestic player spot (as a green card holder).


Protected Available Exempt
Corey Ashe Wade Barrett Danny Cruz
Bobby Boswell Ricardo Clark

Geoff Cameron Ryan Cochrane
Mike Chabala
Tyler Deric
Brian Ching Tally Hall
Brad Davis John Michael Hayden
Andrew Hainault Luis Angel Landin

Stuart Holden Richard Mulrooney
Brian Mullan Pat Onstad
Dominic Oduro Eddie Robinson
Cam Weaver
Abe Thompson

Erik Ustruck

Craig Waibel

Changes: Chabala/Weaver for Clark/Landin.

Clark is leaving on a free transfer and Landin was a huge disappointment. Based on their playing time down the stretch, Chabala and Weaver seem next in line and they're both cheap. Barrett/Mulrooney/Onstad were already left unprotected a year ago, so I'd expect that to happen again.

Holden's out of contract too, but you could at least picture him staying (or maybe not). If I were Nowak and Holden were unprotected, I'd take him. Why not take that chance even if it's really slim?


Protected Available Exempt
Davy Arnaud Adam Cristman Roger Espinoza
Matt Besler Herculez Gomez Chance Myers
Jimmy Conrad Aaron Hohlbein
Michael Harrington
Michael Kraus
Kevin Hartman
Eric Kronberg
Zoltan Hercegfalvi Jonathan Leathers
Santiago Hirsig Matt Marquess
Jack Jewsbury Rauwshan McKenzie
Kei Kamara Kurt Morsink
Claudio Lopez Boris Pardo
Josh Wolff Kevin Souter

Lance Watson

Graham Zusi

Changes: Hartman for Watson.

Seems pretty cut and dry. Down the Byline suggests Zusi instead of Wolff. Could he or Watson make the list instead of an older player?


Protected Available Exempt
David Beckham Todd Dunivant Tristan Bowen
Gregg Berhalter
Alecko Eskandarian
Chris Birchall Alan Gordon

Edson Buddle Leonard Griffin

A.J. DeLaGarza Bryan Jordan

Landon Donovan Jovan Kirovski

Sean Franklin
Chris Klein

Omar Gonzalez
Eddie Lewis
Dema Kovalenko
Yohance Marshall
Mike Magee Stefani Miglioranzi
Donovan Ricketts Kyle Patterson

Tony Sanneh

Josh Saunders

Julian Valentin

Changes: Berhalter/Kovalenko for Dunivant/Eskandarian.

Bruce Arena protected Kovalenko back in 2006 when he was with NY, so I now expect the same thing to happen again. Along with Kovalenko, Berhalter has been huge down the strech and he seems a more likely choice than Dunivant, who can be replaced by DeLaGarza.


Protected Available Exempt
Kevin Alston Chris Albright Nico Colaluca
Darrius Barnes Stephane Assengue Amaechi Igwe
Jay Heaps Gabriel Badilla
Shalrie Joseph Mauricio Castro
Jeff Larentowicz Kheli Dube
Kenny Mansally Edgaras Jankauskas
Sainey Nyassi Brad Knighton
Emmanuel Osei Pat Phelan
Steve Ralston Bobby Shuttleworth
Matt Reis Wells Thompson
Taylor Twellman Chris Tierney

Michael Videira

Changes: None.

Larentowicz is out of contract, but as I mentioned above, they still protected Parkhurst last year. The big question is whether or not they'll protect Twellman. He's been injured for over a year and has one of the league's highest salaries. I think that it's still the smart move to do so. Kheli Dube (likely the 12th man in the pecking order) is clearly not on the same level even at his best.


Protected Available Exempt
Juan Pablo Angel Danleigh Borman
Bouna Coundoul
Andrew Boyens
Kevin Goldthwaite
Albert Celades

Jeremy Hall
Danny Cepero
Carlos Johnson
Walter Garcia
Macoumba Kandji Leo Krupnik
Ernst Oebster Carlos Mendes
Dane Richards Matthew Mbuta
Luke Sassano Mike Petke
Seth Stammler Jorge Rojas
Sinisa Ubiparipovic John Wolyniec

Nick Zimmerman

Changes: Boundoul/Johnson for Celades/Cepero.

Boundoul won the starting keeper job down the stretch, while Celades announced his retirement. Without Celades, they'll need to protect another foreign player, so I selected Johnson over Rojas.


Protected Available Exempt
Kyle Beckerman Jean Alexandre Alex Nimo
Tony Beltran Pablo Campos
Chris Seitz
Nat Borchers Raphael Cox
Fabian Espindola Rachid El Khalifi
Robbie Findley Nelson Gonzalez
Will Johnson Ned Grabavoy
Javier Morales David Horst
Jamison Olave Clint Mathis
Nick Rimando Yura Movsisyan
Robbie Russell
Tino Nunez
Chris Wingert Kyle Reynish

Andy Williams

Changes: Russell for Campos.

10 players are stone cold locks. Russell is the exception. Will it be him, Campos, Grabavoy or maybe Alexandre who completes the list? We'll see what Kreis is thinking. Russell was protected a year ago so I think that tilts it in his favor.


Protected Available Exempt
Arturo Alvarez Bobby Burling
Quincy Amarikwa Ramiro Corrales
Joe Cannon Simon Elliott
Bobby Convey Mike Graczyk
Cornell Glen Darren Huckerby
Jason Hernandez Chris Leitch
Ryan Johnson Brandon McDonald
Andre Luiz Aaron Pitchkolan

Shea Salinas
Antonio Ribeiro

Ramon Sanchez
Jamil Roberts

Chris Wondolowski
Andrew Weber

Michael Zaher

Changes: Wondolowski for McDonald.

As I've said before, no matter how much some people want Convey out of SJ and think he would be a perfect fit, I don't think he'll be unprotected. He has too much talent, it's too perfect of a scenario with the Philly hometown kid coming home, and also he holds value in a trade if they go that route.


Protected Available Exempt
Osvaldo Alonso Terry Boss
Brad Evans Evan Brown
Leo Gonzalez Chris Eylander
Jhon Kennedy Hurtado Michael Fucito
Patrick Ianni
Taylor Graham
Nate Jaqua
Stephen King
Kasey Keller
Roger Levesque

Freddie Ljungberg
Sebastien Le Toux

Fredy Montero
Tyrone Marshall

James Riley Lamar Neagle

Steve Zakuani Sanna Nyassi

Zach Scott

Nathan Sturgis

Peter Vagenas

Tyson Wahl

Changes: None.

I suppose Le Toux, Levesque, and Nyassi have an outside chance, possibly at the expense of Riley.


Protected Available Exempt
Nana Attakora Jim Brennan Fuad Ibrahim
Chad Barrett Brian Edwards
Sam Cronin Lesly Fellinga
Julian de Guzman Gabe Gala
Dwayne De Rosario Nick Garcia
Stefan Frei Ali Gerba
Emmanuel Gomez Amado Guevara
Amadou Sanyang Carl Robinson
Adrian Serioux Pablo Vitti
O'Brian White

Marvell Wynne

Changes: None.

What was a nightmare to project when I first did this back in August now seems easy. The high-priced Guevara/Robinson/Vitti should be unselectable and easy to exclude. Meanwhile, Garcia played his way off.

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Comments on "Expansion Draft 2009 - Final Protected Lists Preview"


Anonymous Anonymous said ... (2:25 PM, November 21, 2009) : 

you can add one more for seattle...Ljungberg doesn't count against our 11


Blogger scaryice said ... (4:42 PM, November 21, 2009) : 

Yes, he does.


Blogger olds said ... (8:32 PM, November 21, 2009) : 

Yura Moyvsisyan isn't available from SLC since he already signed a contract with Randers.


Blogger jason said ... (9:28 PM, November 21, 2009) : 

SJ just re-signed Corrales, so I doubt he'll be exposed.

If DC needs another international, they're more likely to go with Habarugira or Kocic over Khumalo, especially if they opt for speed or need to protect a backup player capable of starting. It's also hard to imagine that they would protect Wicks when he's going to be out for at least the next four or so months. MacTavish or Vaughn would be more likely to be protected due to their age/versatility.


Blogger scaryice said ... (4:43 AM, November 22, 2009) : 

olds - Movsisyan should still be available because his contract is through the end of the year. Philly could take him just to hold his MLS rights.

jason - I have Khumalo as the last international because he was protected last year.


Blogger Daniel said ... (2:15 PM, November 22, 2009) : 

For New England, if Badilla is healthy, Heaps may have become surplus to requirements.

Jankauskas is (assuming reasonable health) the best striker option we've got, apart from the enigma that is Taylor Twellman and his neck injury. Ralston took a fairly severe injury late in the season and is getting up in years. For all his quality, he's probably not worth the risk of a draft pick. Swapping these 2 may make sense

If they're negotiating with Big Red they'll protect him. If he's made it clear he's gone or out of their salary range for him, they won't. Parkhurst was arguably worth more effort to sign than JL.


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