Thursday, July 30, 2009

MLS: The Impact of a Red Card (part three)

Part 1: Leaguewide stats
Part 2: Better or Worse, Outcomes Changed

Back with more details on the history of red cards in MLS. Now I'm looking at the team stats. Be sure to check out the first two parts as well. This data is through 2008, and includes only regular season games.

Team Stats

How many times has each team gone up or down a man?


Games Up Down
CHI 335 45 29
CHV 124 8 13
CLB 398 43 37
COL 398 43 43
DAL 398 42 41
DC 398 38 43
HOU 92 14 11
KC 399 46 32
LA 398 44 28
NE 399 40 35
NY 398 41 60
RSL 124 9 17
SJ 336 31 36
TOR 60 6 9




MIA 122 11 19
TB 187 14 22

Games refers to the total number of regular season games played all time. Look at that New York number for times down. Wow. That's only 17 more than their nearest competitors.


When Up 1 Man


Times Minutes Avg Length GF GA GF per 90 GA per 90 GD per 90 GF per time GA per time GD per time
CHI 45 944 21.0 21
7 2.00 0.67 1.33 0.47 0.16 0.31
CHV 8 300 37.5 6 6 1.80 1.80 0.00 0.75 0.75 0.00
CLB 43 917 21.3 24 15 2.36 1.47 0.88 0.56 0.35 0.21
COL 43 1044 24.3 24 19 2.07 1.64 0.43 0.56 0.44 0.12
DAL 42 1029 24.5 30 11 2.62 0.96 1.66 0.71 0.26 0.45
DC 38 1064 28.0 35 14 2.96 1.18 1.78 0.92 0.37 0.55
HOU 14 386
27.6 5
2 1.17 0.47 0.70 0.36 0.14 0.21
KC 46 1183 25.7 45 18 3.42 1.37 2.05 0.98 0.39 0.59
LA 44 1389 31.6 55 14 3.56 0.91 2.66 1.25 0.32 0.93
NE 40 748 18.7 17 18 2.05 2.17 -0.12 0.43 0.45 -0.03
NY 41 1199 29.2 31 21 2.33 1.58 0.75 0.76 0.51 0.24
RSL 9 158 17.6 4 1 2.28 0.57 1.71 0.44 0.11 0.33
SJ 31 891 28.7 28 13 2.83 1.31 1.52 0.90 0.42 0.48
TOR 6 175 29.2 1 2 0.51 1.03 -0.51 0.17 0.33 -0.17












MIA 11 306 27.8 9 5 2.65 1.47 1.18 0.82 0.45 0.36
TB 14 264 18.9 10 4 3.41 1.36 2.05 0.71 0.29 0.43

The Revs have actually let in more goals than they've scored while up a man throughout MLS history (at least until this year). Toronto is in that category too, but that only takes into account two years of data from poor teams.

Dallas, DC United, Kansas City, Los Angeles, and San Jose have all done excellent jobs of making their man advantage count.


When Down 1 Man


Times Minutes Avg Length GF GA GF per 90 GA per 90 GD per 90 GF per time GA per time GD per time
CHI 29 795 27.4 20 20 2.26 2.26 0.00 0.69 0.69 0.00
CHV 13 277 21.3 2 4 0.65 1.30 -0.65 0.15 0.31 -0.15
CLB 37 970 26.2 14 18 1.30 1.67 -0.37 0.38 0.49 -0.11
COL 43 1187 27.6 20 25 1.52 1.90 -0.38 0.47 0.58 -0.12
DAL 41 1082 26.4 12 40 1.00 3.33 -2.33 0.29 0.98 -0.68
DC 43 1029 23.9 15 29 1.31 2.54 -1.22 0.35 0.67 -0.33
HOU 11 290 26.4 2 5 0.62 1.55 -0.93 0.18 0.45 -0.27
KC 32 716 22.4 7 24 0.88 3.02 -2.14 0.22 0.75 -0.53
LA 28 564 20.1 5 13 0.80 2.07 -1.28 0.18 0.46 -0.29
NE 35 821 23.5 10 33 1.10 3.62 -2.52 0.29 0.94 -0.66
NY 60
1553 25.9 23 43 1.33 2.49 -1.16 0.38 0.72 -0.33
RSL 17 327 19.2 6
11 1.65 3.03 -1.38 0.35 0.65 -0.29
SJ 36 856 23.8 8 22 0.84 2.31 -1.47 0.22 0.61 -0.39
TOR 9 207 23.0 2 5 0.87 2.17 -1.30 0.22 0.56 -0.33












MIA 19 636 33.5 14 19 1.98 2.69 -0.71 0.74 1.00 -0.26
TB 22 687 31.2 10 34 1.31 4.45 -3.14 0.45 1.55 -1.09

Chicago, Columbus, and Colorado have been the best teams while down a man. Meanwhile, Dallas, New England, and Kansas City have gotten killed.


Outcomes by Team

This includes only the 389 instances where a game only had one red card (just like in part two), because it gets tricky to measure otherwise. How did each team do when it came to the result they ended up with after going a man up or down?

As seen in that link, the leaguewide averages for teams that go up a man are: 19.3% end up with a better result, 7.5% end up with a worse result, and the other 73.3% end up with the same result.


Going a Man Up


Times Better Even Worse
Net
CHI 29 16.7% 80.0% 3.3%
13.3%
CHV 7 28.6% 42.9% 28.6%
0.0%
CLB 38 18.4% 78.9% 2.6%
15.8%
COL 37 18.9% 78.4% 2.7%
16.2%
DAL 34 17.6% 73.5% 8.8%
8.8%
DC 30 23.3% 63.3% 13.3%
10.0%
HOU 14 7.1% 85.7% 7.1%
0.0%
KC 41 34.1% 61.0% 2.7%
29.3%
LA 37 24.3% 73.0% 2.7%
21.6%
NE 33 12.1% 78.8% 9.1%
3.0%
NY 35 17.1% 65.7% 17.1%
0.0%
RSL 6 0.0% 100.0% 0.0%
0.0%
SJ 26 15.4% 73.1% 11.5%
3.8%
TOR 4 0.0% 100.0% 0.0%
0.0%







MIA 9 11.1% 88.9% 0.0%
11.1%
TB 8 25.0% 62.5% 12.5%
12.5%

NY not fairing so well here, while KC looks even more impressive (LA too). The final column is the net percentage of positive results (better minus worse).


Going a Man Down


Times
Worse Even Better
Net
CHI 25 24.0% 64.0% 12.0%
-12.0%
CHV 11 9.1% 90.9% 0.0%
-9.1%
CLB 30 20.0% 66.7% 13.3%
-6.7%
COL 33 15.2% 69.7% 15.2%
0.0%
DAL 35 34.3% 60.0% 5.7%
-28.6%
DC 37 18.9% 81.1% 0.0%
-18.9%
HOU 9 22.2% 77.8% 0.0%
-22.2%
KC 27 14.8% 77.8% 7.4%
-7.4%
LA 22 18.2% 77.3% 4.5%
-13.6%
NE 31 16.1% 77.4% 6.5%
-9.7%
NY 50
10.0% 80.0% 10.0%
0.0%
RSL 15 6.7% 80.0% 13.3%
6.7%
SJ 27 18.5% 74.1% 7.4%
-11.1%
TOR 7 14.3% 85.7% 0.0%
-14.3%







MIA 12 33.3% 58.3% 8.3%
-25.0%
TB 18 38.9% 61.1% 0.0%
-38.9%

Dallas gets absolutely crushed here. DC as well, with no positive results. Now they have improved their end result twice while down a man in MLS history, just not in the games that only contained one red card (which make up this data here). You'll probably remember the last minute winner by Emilio last year at Chicago playing 9 on 10.

NY actually does very well here, ending up with an equal number of better and worse results. Same for Colorado, while Real Salt Lake is actually in the positive (1 worse, 12 even, 2 better).

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Tuesday, July 28, 2009

MLS 2009: Post-All Star Strength of Schedule

Using the PPG of each team, it's easy to figure out who has the easiest and toughest remaining schedules. Listed below is the average PPG of the team's remaining opponents, as well as the home/away breakdown of their remaining games (which plays a big factor as well, probably more than who they're actually playing). I didn't try to combine the PPG with the location of the games somehow, rather I just left them separate.

Ranked from easiest to hardest:



PPG H-A
1 CHV 1.262 6-7
2 KC 1.292 6-7
3 COL 1.304 6-6
4 NY 1.311 6-3
5 CLB 1.312 5-6
6 DAL 1.313 6-6
7 NE 1.331 8-6
8 TOR 1.339 4-7
9 SJ 1.349 6-6
10 SEA 1.356 4-8
11 DC 1.374 6-5
12 RSL 1.396 6-6
13 HOU 1.416 6-5
14 LA 1.426 6-5
15 CHI 1.447 7-5

The easiest schedules belong to Chivas, Kansas City, and Colorado, while the hardest belong to Chicago, Los Angeles, and Houston. The Fire are the only team to have already played all their matches against the league's worst three teams (DAL, SJ, NY). On the flip side, Chivas is first by virtue of being the only team yet to play the Red Bulls and their 0.48 PPG.

Looking at the home/away breakdown, Seattle and Toronto are good bets to end the season lower in the standings than they are currently (tied for 2nd and 10th overall, respectively). Each faces several more away games than home.

Despite the horrible situation in NY, playing six of their final nine at home means they should escape being the league's all time worst team. They only need six points to avoid that fate. Chicago and NE also have a couple more home games and look good because of that.

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Monday, July 27, 2009

MLS/Gold Cup - Week 19 Notes

1) All time CONCACAF Gold Cup stats have been updated with the completion of the tournament. I've included all time W-L-D records for each team, the top 25 goalscorers, and more. Would you believe that Guadeloupe already has more Gold Cup wins than Guatemala, and as many as Panama and Trinidad?

2)
It's not too early to be thinking about the seeding for the 2014 CONCACAF World Cup qualifying...at least it shouldn't be if you read this blog. 25% of the games played data that counts towards the May 2011 FIFA ranking is complete, and Edgar at Football Rankings has posted what the current seedings would be. Guatemala could be the next cycle's El Salvador. No hex, no Gold Cup, and maybe as a result a really hard matchup just to get into the semifinals.

3) It's been a crazy week for the American soccer state attendance records. Three records were set in the last three days: Maryland, Kansas, and New Jersey. That's a preseason friendly between two Euro clubs, an MLS regular season match, and the Gold Cup final respectively.

4) Don Garber's (not mentioned anywhere except for one sentence in an MLSnet article) big announcment is tomorrow in SLC: "Following the press conference, Commissioner Don Garber will make a special announcement." Speculation is fun, though.

As somebody mentioned, it's unlikely to be anything competition related since that's usually at the end of the year (single table could be a long shot, though). It's also unlikely to be anything team specific since it's being made at the all star game. If there is to be any actual big news, my guess is that he'll say the designated player rule is being renewed. That's competition-related, but you can't exactly wait until the offseason to decide on it, plus it's already a foregone conclusion since players have multiple year contracts.

Such an announcement would be obvious, yet still newsworthy, which makes it perfect for this sort of thing. The really big news never seems to stay secret (witness the expansion race earlier this year).

5) You probably heard this over the weekend. The Columbus Crew have now gone 19 straight home regular season matches without a defeat; that's a new league record (my list of record home/away streaks is due for an update). However, they're still two games away from the all competitions record of 23 in a row. That's held by the 2000-01 Chicago Fire. The Crew are currently at 21 games including the two from the playoffs last year. They'll likely need some results in the Champions League to break that one as well.

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CONCACAF Gold Cup - All Time Stats

All Time Records



GP W L D Pts PPG GF GA GD GC
1 United States 49 38 5 6 120 2.45 93 34 59 10
2 Mexico 45 32 6 7 103 2.29 103 24 79 10
3 Costa Rica 38 13 15 10 49 1.29 61 51 10 9
4 Canada 32 14 11 7 49 1.53 41 46 -5 9
5 Honduras 31 14 13 4 46 1.48 52 44 8 9
6 Brazil 14 8 4 2 26 1.86 22 9 13 3
7 Jamaica 25 6 15 4 22 0.88 25 47 -22 7
8 Colombia 13 5 6 2 17 1.31 14 17 -3 3
9 Trinidad & Tobago 19 4 11 4 16 0.84 24 35 -11 7
10 Panama 17 4 7 6 18 1.06 23 26 -3 4
11 El Salvador 17 5 11 1 16 0.94 11 31 -20 6
12 Guatemala 23 3 14 6 15 0.65 18 40 -22 8
13 Guadeloupe 9 4 4 1 13 1.44 10 13 -3 2
14 Haiti 12 2 6 4 10 0.83 10 19 -9 4
15 South Africa 4 1 0 3 6 1.50 7 6 1 1
16 Martinique 8 1 5 2 5 0.63 5 20 -15 3
17 Cuba 13 1 10 2 5 0.38 10 37 -27 5
18 Peru 4 1 2 1 4 1.00 7 7 0 1
19 South Korea 7 0 3 4 4 0.57 5 9 -4 2
20 Ecuador 2 1 1 0 3 1.50 2 2 0 1
21 St. Vincent 2 0 2 0 0 0.00 0 8 -8 1
21 Nicaragua 3 0 3 0 0 0.00 0 8 -8 1
23 Grenada 3 0 3 0 0 0.00 0 10 -10 1


GC is the number of Gold Cups played in.

After 2009, we can see that Costa Rica has overtaken Canada for third on goal difference. However, they've played six more games. Guadeloupe is already 14th and has more wins than Guatemala. Grenada's zero points and -10 GD is the worst single performance in tournament history. You could also make a case for St. Vincent in 1996, who had zero points and a -8 GD in only two games.

Mexico won the tournament without losing a game, but every winner has been undefeated. The only teams to have a 100% record are 1996 Mexico, 1998 Mexico, and 2007 USA. This year's Mexico squad did score 15 goals, second all time for a single tournament. The record belongs to 1993 Mexico with 28 (and only 2 against), which is unlikely to be broken any time soon.

Despite their disappointing loss in the final, the USA did break Mexico's record Gold Cup unbeaten streak. Mexico went 16 games undefeated from 1991-2000, but the USA bested them with 18 straight. The streak started in the 2003 third place game and lasted through the 2009 semifinal.

The record winless streak is held by Guatemala at 15 games (1996-2007).


USA & Mexico Losses

The top two teams have been incredibly dominant and only have 11 losses combined.

USA losses:

1993-Mexico
1996-Brazil
1998-Mexico
2003-Brazil
2009-Mexico

Mexico losses:

1991-USA
2000-Canada
2005-South Africa, Colombia
2007-Honduras, USA


All Time Goalscorers

1 Zaguinho MEX 13
2 Landon Donovan USA 12
3 Walter Centeno CR 9
3 Carlos Pavon HON 9
3 Eric Wynalda USA 9
6 Paulo Wanchope CR 8
6 Brian McBride USA 8
8 Eduardo Bennett HON 7
8 Jared Borgetti MEX 7
10 Ali Gerba CAN 6
10 Blas Perez PAN 6
10 DaMarcus Beasley USA 6
13 Carlo Corazzin CAN 5
13 Carlos Ruiz GUA 5
13 Carlos Costly HON 5
13 Cuauhtemoc Blanco MEX 5
13 Luis Hernandez MEX 5
13 Luis Miguel Salvador MEX 5
13 Luis Tejada PAN 5
20 Dwayne De Rosario CAN 4
20 Rolando Fonseca CR 4
20 Juan Carlos Plata GUA 4
20 Benjamin Galindo MEX 4
20 Miguel Sabah MEX 4
20 Arnold Dwarika TRI 4

Donovan should be able to overtake Zague/Zaguinho/Alves/whatever if he plays in the next edition. Zaguinho scored 12 goals in the 1993 tournament, including 7 in one game versus Martinique. Centeno scored a goal in this year's Gold Cup, reaching third place.

Also: the 500th goal in tournament history was scored this year. It took place in the group stage when Mexico played Panama. The opener, by eventual golden boot winner Miguel Sabah of Mexico in the 10th minute, was the milestone goal.


Most Tournaments Scored In

1 Eric Wynalda USA 5 1991, 1993, 1996, 1998, 2000
2 Walter Centeno CR 4 2002, 2003, 2007, 2009
2 Landon Donovan USA 4 2002, 2003, 2005, 2007
3 Ali Gerba CAN 3 2005, 2007, 2009
3 Hernan Medford CR 3 1991, 2000, 2002
3 Paulo Wanchope CR 3 1998, 2000, 2002
3 Carlos Ruiz GUA 3 2003, 2005, 2007
3 Juan Carlos Plata GUA 3 1998, 2000, 2002
3 Carlos Pavon HON 3 1998, 2000, 2007
3 Andy Williams JAM 3 1998, 2003, 2005
3 Cuauhtemoc Blanco MEX 3 1996, 1998, 2007
3 Jared Borgetti MEX 3 2003, 2005, 2007
3 Ramon Ramirez MEX 3 1993, 1998, 2000
3 Brian McBride USA 3 2000, 2002, 2003
3 DaMarcus Beasley USA 3 2002, 2005, 2007

Centeno tied Donovan for second, while Gerba joined the three timers.

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Friday, July 24, 2009

MLS: The Impact of a Red Card (part two)

Part 1: MLS: The Impact of a Red Card

Back with more details on the history of red cards in MLS. Be sure to check out part one too. This data is through 2008, and includes only regular season games.

Better or Worse?

Exactly how did the scoreline of the game change when one team was a man up? How many goals did each team score after that? The GD in the table below refers to the team that was a man up, and also only includes the time in the game while that team was a man up.

So for example, let's say a team was losing 0:3 and went a man up. If the game ended up with a final score of 1:3 (and no more reds were shown), it would be listed below as +1.

GD Times PCT
+6 2 0.4%
+5 2 0.4%
+4 4 0.8%
+3 9 1.9%
+2 38 8.0%
+1 104 21.9%
0 257 54.1%
-1 50
10.5%
-2 8 1.7%
-3 0 0.0%
-4 1 0.2%



Total 475 100.0%

The -4 game was in 1999. Chicago was up 1:0 on Colorado in Soldier Field when Jerzy Podbrozny was ejected in the 25th minute. The Fire scored four more times in the second half and it finished 5:0.

Simplifying it a bit:


Times PCT
Better 159 33.5%
Even 257 54.1%
Worse 59 12.4%

So MLS teams have only outscored their opponent about one out of every eight times after going a man down.

This holds even when accounting for the location of the team going a man up:


Home Away
Better 34.4% 32.1%
Even 54.5% 53.6%
Worse 11.1% 14.3%


Outcomes Changed?

The last table concerned only the number of goals scored versus conceded. What about how the actual outcomes of games? To make things easier, I only looked at games with a single sending off. The only exception was if a second red was given to someone on the bench or otherwise not in the match. There were 389 such games:


Times PCT Home Away
L to W 9 2.3% 7 2
L to D 14 3.6% 5
9
L to L 84 21.6% 43 41
D to W 52 13.4% 31 21
D to D 65 16.7% 41 24
D to L 17 4.4% 7 10
W to W 136 35.0% 95 41
W to D 10 2.6% 4 6
W to L 2 0.5% 1 1





Total 389 100.0% 234 155

In summary:

Better 75 19.3%
Even 285 73.3%
Worse 29 7.5%

Interesting that most of the time the result stayed the same in the end. Of course, many of these red cards were given at the end of matches.

The 2009 MLS Fact & Record Book lists 6 games where a team scored a tying and winning goal while a man down. Those games are:

  • NY 2:3 LA (April 11, 1998)
  • COL 1:2 MIA (May 13, 2000)
  • NY 2:1 NE (August 12, 2000)
  • DC 1:2 CHI (June 2, 2001)
  • COL 2:1 KC (July 4, 2005)
  • RSL 3:2 DAL (September 16, 2006)

The first, third, and sixth matches were all tied when the red card was shown. The team a man up then scored, followed by the team a man down scoring twice to win. They were included in the "D to L" category above.

The second match was 1:0 Rapids, a red card was shown, and then the Fusion scored twice to win. It's not in the above stats because a second red (to Colorado) was shown in the dying minutes.

The other two make up the 2 in the "W to L" column above.

Once again, let's see how it breaks down into home/away:


Home Away
Better 18.4% 20.6%
Even 76.5% 68.4%
Worse 5.1% 11.0%

Away teams are more than twice as likely to end up with a worse result. No surprise if you saw part one where I detailed the average number of goals scored for home and away teams.

Coming up next:

In part three, I'll look at how each MLS team has done while up and down a man. Have certain teams done better than the rest

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Wednesday, July 22, 2009

MLS: The Impact of a Red Card

When a red card occurs during a game, how big of an advantage or disadvantage occurs as a result? The obvious fact that one team is now a man down doesn't tell us exactly how many goals that's worth. I wanted to learn more about the impact of red cards in MLS history, so I've gone through all 594 595 of them from 1996-2008.

That figure includes one two sending offs that aren't listed in the 2009 MLS Fact & Record Book (FARB): Branco is listed as only having received 2 reds in 1997; pretty amusing since getting 3 reds in 11 games is the only thing anyone remembers about his MLS stint. That appears to be the only one they've overlooked. Although, if you get your ejection numbers from the MLSnet stats pages, be aware that they sometimes count coaches being sent off in their totals.

EDIT 8/1: I found another one while looking at the 2009 NY media guide. They list all the team's red cards, and unfortunately are missing a couple. But it looks like the FARB and MLSnet are missing another 1997 Metrostars red card: Tab Ramos on 8/17 at KC.

What I did was look at every single match that involved a red card, and figured out how many goals were scored after that. Some matches involved multiple red cards, so I've decided to post the data as "1 man up" and "2 men up" situations. Being up by two men is a very uncommon situation that's only occurred for a total of 201 minutes in 2,283 games through last season, so let's focus on being one man up.

This data includes goals off of penalty kicks awarded as a result of a red card.

1 Man Up: Per 90 Minutes


Min GF GA GF per 90 GA per 90 GD per 90
1996 802 28 10 3.14 1.12 2.02
1997 604
24 10
3.58 1.49 2.09
1998 1739 72 29 3.73 1.50 2.23
1999 1323 38 23 2.59 1.56 1.02
2000 898 29 17 2.91 1.70 1.20
2001 941 31 14 2.96 1.34 1.63
2002 823 18 7 1.97 0.77 1.20
2003 596 8 6 1.21 0.91 0.30
2004 527 11 7 1.88 1.20 0.68
2005 737 14 10
1.71 1.22 0.49
2006 830 27 10 2.93 1.08 1.84
2007 1197 25 18 1.88 1.35 0.53
2008 980 20 9 1.84 0.83 1.01







Total 11997 345 170 2.59 1.28 1.31

This data is all regular season only. To summarize, MLS teams have been up by one man for a total of 11,997 minutes. Those teams have scored 345 goals and let in 170. That comes out to an average of 2.59 to 1.28 over 90 minutes.

You can see that more goals are scored in these situations than the normal per game averages. The total goals, both GF & GA, come out to 3.86 per 90 minutes. For comparison, the average in MLS history is 2.99 per game (which includes those goals).

One thing that immediately stands out is the GF/GD per 90 minutes for the first few seasons. Pretty crazy. More goals were scored leaguewide in those years, but that doesn't explain everything. I guess the quality of the league improving and more emphasis on defense have much to do with it. The parity after contraction is a factor too.

As a matter of fact, there's a striking difference break down the numbers into pre and post contraction:


Min GF GA GF per 90 GA per 90 GD per 90
1996-01 6307 222 103 3.17 1.47 1.70
2002-08 5690 123 67 1.95 1.06 0.89

Teams still have a big advantage, just not crazy big.

After making the above tables, my next thought was to figure out the home/away splits. I don't think it would shock you to learn that 60.7% of "1 man up" minutes were in favor of home teams. We already know that they get more penalties called and win more games.

However, you might be surprised to learn that teams with the advantage scored goals at nearly the same rate whether they were at home or away. In fact, the away goals were scored at a slightly higher rate:

1 Man Up: Home & Away


Min GF GA GF Per 90 GA per 90
Home 7285 208 85 2.57 1.05
Away 4712 137 85 2.62 1.62

The big difference is that home teams are much more likely to score despite being a man down.

I also considered the possibility that maybe a handful of games had a huge impact on the data. Most notably, the Los Angeles Galaxy beat the Dallas Burn 8:1 in 1998 in Texas. The Burn received a red card while losing 1:0, so that's 7 away goals in one game.

To try to take that sort of thing out of the equation, I looked at how many "situations" a team was a man up and divided the goals by those situations. I use the word situations rather than games because a team can have two separate 1 man up periods in a single game.

Overall, there were 475 man up situations with 58.7% of those at home (279-196). Here's the GF & GA divided by those numbers:


GF GA
Home 0.75 0.30
Away 0.70 0.43



Total 0.72 0.35

Both scoring rates are still nearly the same. Notice the total number, there's another great piece of data: Throughout MLS history, every time your team went up a man, on average you could've expected them to score 0.72 goals and allow 0.35 for the rest of the game (or until another ejection).

In fact, let's take a look at the goals per "situation" for each individual year next:

1 Man Up: Goals per Red Card Situation


Times GF GA GF per Time GA per Time GD per Time
1996 28 28 10 1.00 0.36 0.64
1997 29 24 10
0.83 0.34 0.48
1998 48 72 29 1.50 0.60 0.90
1999 46 38 23 0.83 0.50 0.33
2000 40 29 17 0.73 0.43 0.30
2001 36 31 14 0.86 0.39 0.47
2002 33 18 7 0.55 0.21 0.33
2003 28 8 6 0.29 0.21 0.07
2004 28 11 7 0.39 0.25 0.14
2005 36 14 10
0.39 0.28 0.11
2006 37 27 10 0.73 0.27 0.46
2007 44 25 18 0.57 0.41 0.16
2008 42 20 9 0.48 0.21 0.26







Total 475 345 170 0.73 0.36 0.37

Once again, let's separate this data into pre and post contraction periods just to emphasize the difference:


Times GF GA GF per Time GA per Time
1996-01 227 222 103 0.98 0.45
2002-08 248 123 67 0.50 0.27

It appears that now you can only expect a goal for your team every other time they're a man up. Although many of those times are in the dying minutes of the match, so I guess your expectations would depend on when it happened.

One more stat: 11,997 minutes divided by 475 situations = just over 25 minutes each.


2 Men Up

Much less to talk about here simply because it's such a rare occurrence. So little data means that we can't really take these numbers too seriously. Obviously it's very good to be two men up, but other than that...

Per 90 Minutes:



Min GF GA GF per 90 GA per 90 GD per 90
1996 9 1 0 10.00 0.00 10.00
1997 0 0 0


1998 16 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
1999 0 0 0


2000 1 1 0 90.00 0.00 90.00
2001 51 1 1 1.76 1.76 0.00
2002 3 1 0 30.00 0.00 30.00
2003 0 0 0


2004 18 0 1 0.00 5.00 -5.00
2005 30 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
2006 2 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
2007 10 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
2008 61 3 1 4.43 1.48 2.95







Total 201 7 3 3.13 1.34 1.79


Per two man up situation:


Times GF GA GF per Time GA per Time GD per Time
1996 1 1 0 1.00 0.00 1.00
1997 0 0 0


1998 2 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
1999 0 0 0


2000 1 1 0 1.00 0.00 1.00
2001 4 1 1 0.25 0.25 0.00
2002 3 1 0 0.33 0.00 0.33
2003 0 0 0


2004 1 0 1 0.00 1.00 -1.00
2005 1 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
2006 1 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
2007 2 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
2008 4 3 1 0.75 0.25 0.50







Total 20 7 3 0.35 0.15 0.20

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