MLS: The Impact of a Red Card (part two)
|Part 1: MLS: The Impact of a Red Card|
Back with more details on the history of red cards in MLS. Be sure to check out part one too. This data is through 2008, and includes only regular season games.
Better or Worse?
Exactly how did the scoreline of the game change when one team was a man up? How many goals did each team score after that? The GD in the table below refers to the team that was a man up, and also only includes the time in the game while that team was a man up.
So for example, let's say a team was losing 0:3 and went a man up. If the game ended up with a final score of 1:3 (and no more reds were shown), it would be listed below as +1.
The -4 game was in 1999. Chicago was up 1:0 on Colorado in Soldier Field when Jerzy Podbrozny was ejected in the 25th minute. The Fire scored four more times in the second half and it finished 5:0.
Simplifying it a bit:
So MLS teams have only outscored their opponent about one out of every eight times after going a man down.
This holds even when accounting for the location of the team going a man up:
The last table concerned only the number of goals scored versus conceded. What about how the actual outcomes of games? To make things easier, I only looked at games with a single sending off. The only exception was if a second red was given to someone on the bench or otherwise not in the match. There were 389 such games:
Interesting that most of the time the result stayed the same in the end. Of course, many of these red cards were given at the end of matches.
The 2009 MLS Fact & Record Book lists 6 games where a team scored a tying and winning goal while a man down. Those games are:
The first, third, and sixth matches were all tied when the red card was shown. The team a man up then scored, followed by the team a man down scoring twice to win. They were included in the "D to L" category above.
The second match was 1:0 Rapids, a red card was shown, and then the Fusion scored twice to win. It's not in the above stats because a second red (to Colorado) was shown in the dying minutes.
The other two make up the 2 in the "W to L" column above.
Once again, let's see how it breaks down into home/away:
Away teams are more than twice as likely to end up with a worse result. No surprise if you saw part one where I detailed the average number of goals scored for home and away teams.
Coming up next:
In part three, I'll look at how each MLS team has done while up and down a man. Have certain teams done better than the rest
Labels: red cards