Expansion Draft Lists Out
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The MLS press release has some errors on the Generation Adidas graduates. However, it appears that all of the following players have graduated:
I've confirmed this based on protected lists and team press releases (all except for Zayner, who's certainly not gonna get a 5th year).
EDIT: MLS has issued an updated press release which confirms the above list, except for Zayner. Really, they've going to give him a 5th year? Surely that's another mistake. I know he was injured, but...
How does that differ from the list I was predicting? Well, it seems that Stefan Frei has been given another year, which is very surprising. I know Nick Rimando started all year in 2000 and didn't graduate, but Brad Guzan did and he's the only comparable player since then. At least I'm pretty sure Guzan did, I have him listed as doing so but I can't find the source. Frei really should've graduated, since he clearly established himself as the starter and played 90% of the season.
MLS did graduate Chris Seitz, I guess due to the fact that he is a lock to make the roster and also that he's had three years. How you graduate Seitz and not Frei mystifies me. Also graduating are 2007 draftees Amaechi Igwe and Anthony Wallace, which is another surprise. Apparently due to the larger senior roster (or smaller developmental roster), they're going to get these guys out earlier. But tell me how this makes sense: Igwe and Wallace have played 1,196 and 826 minutes in three seasons respectively. They graduated, yet Roger Espinoza has played 1,169 and 635 minutes in his two years and didn't. So I have to believe that the third year is what did it.
Overall, I missed 26 out of 165 protected players from my final preview the other day. Two of those were due to Seitz and Frei.
Here's my predictions on who Philadelphia will take. These things are always really tough to analyze; who would've guessed Jarrod Smith last year for example? If I can get more than three right, I'd be ecstatic.
I expect Philadelphia will take more veteran and expensive players this year because they haven't signed anyone yet. At this point last year Seattle already had committed to $800,000 against the cap with Keller, Ljungberg, and Le Toux.
So I don't think it's too unrealistic that they could take somebody like Luciano Emilio or Amado Guevara (who SBI and Goal.com both seem to expect will be taken).
(2010 age in parentheses)
CHI - Gonzalo Segares (27) - Even if there's only a 25% of him staying, it's worth the risk. It's not like all ten picks will end up on the roster anyway. Why not take the chance?
CHV - Shavar Thomas (29) - Solid defender.
CLB - Alejandro Moreno (30) - Won't score a lot, but it's not just about the goals. Every year his team ends up being good.
COL - Greg Dalby (24) - Cheap player who was very highly regarded coming out of college. Hasn't gotten a real opportunity to show his potential.
DC - Devon McTavish (25) - Versatile player can fill in at several positions.
HOU - Eddie Robinson (31) - Former Best XI player coming off a big injury.
KC - Herculez Gomez (28) - Cheap attacking player. Maybe him and Convey on the left and right side of midfield?
LA - Josh Saunders (29) - A better choice to start than Jon Conway. Also the most popular expansion draft prediction by every fan out there since Sunday.
NE - Amaechi Igwe (22) - Another young player who hasn't gotten much time. Assistant coach John Hackworth is familiar with him from the U17s. 100k salary might be a turn off, but they could negotiate it.
SJ - Bobby Convey (27) - Almost too perfect of a story, right? Surely must improve in 2010.
Total salaries: ~ $974,000