Wednesday, April 27, 2011

CTL on How bad a red card hurts

This week's column:

Climbing the Ladder: How bad a red card hurts

How many goals per 90 will it cost your team to go down a man?

And I already realized that I missed the RSL-Columbus series for the article's second point, about drawing the away leg of the CCL first. Doh.

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Comments on "CTL on How bad a red card hurts"


Anonymous Anonymous said ... (8:24 PM, April 27, 2011) : 

I really enjoy your columns. Definitely my favorites on mlssoccer.

One thought on the red card issue: Is it more likely for the away team to get a red card than the home team? If so, then part of the advantage you attribute to being up a man could be due to home field advantage. That is, if teams that go up a man also tend to be playing at home, then this it's not clear how much of the 1.4 GD is because of the man advantage and how much because of playing at home.

You could easily decompose the effect by running a simple regression. Or, even simpler, you could simply look at what the average home field advantage is in terms of goal differential and subtract that from the GD for teams that go up a man at home, while adding it on for teams that go up a man away.

Thanks for the great articles!


Blogger scaryice said ... (3:54 AM, April 28, 2011) : 

Thanks for the kind words.

I examined the home/away splits before, if you want to take a closer look. However the stats are only through 2008:

Home teams have more of an advantage, but away teams who are a man up still have a goal advantage per 90.

And as it turns out, there was no difference between the goals scored home and away in those situations, just the goals allowed. Teams who were up a man while away were just much more likely to concede.


Anonymous Anonymous said ... (12:31 PM, April 30, 2011) : 

Perfect. I'd forgotten about your earlier post on this topic.


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