Monday, February 12, 2007

MLS Transaction Analysis - 2/12/2007

This idea is taken from Baseball Prospectus, where they regularly go over the latest MLB moves and discuss how the teams will be impacted. I thought I would do the same for MLS, starting today with all of the offseason stuff. Today I'll do the Eastern conference, followed the by the West tomorrow. In addition, I plan on doing this once every week or two from now on.

Thanks goes to PhantomTollbooth for his great Bigsoccer thread detailing all the moves. Only moves and signings officially announced are listed, and only players officially on the roster are used in the possible starting lineups. Some dates may be wrong.

CHICAGO FIRE

Lost M/F-Nate Jaqua to Toronto in the expansion draft. [11/17]

Announced M-John Thorrington's option will not be picked up. [1/12]

Acquired 2007 first round Superdraft pick (Bakary Soumare) and F-Ryan Coiner from Columbus for F-Andy Herron. [1/12]

Drafted D-Bakary Soumare, F-Jerson Monteiro, M-Nate Norman, M-Mike Banner, and F-Simon Omekanda in the 2007 Superdraft. [1/12]

Re-signed M-Chris Armas. [1/18]
Drafted GK-Nick Noble, M-Mark Totten, D-Osei Telesford, F-Asmir Pervan, and D-Daniel Woolard in the 2007 supplemental draft. [1/18]

Announced F-Ryan Coiner has retired. [2/5]

Thoughts: The Fire have added little in the offseason, sticking with their core of young stars. They'll have to overcome the losses of Nate Jaqua and Andy Herron, so hopefully Calen Carr is ready to step up. Jaqua's loss was a bad move, as they gave him away for nothing and Toronto was able to use him for an allocation. I know he was a free agent and considering Europe, but I don't think that justifies protecting Logan Pause over him.

Tony Sanneh and Zach Thornton are unlikely to return. Soumare could see plenty of time at center back, considering how Dave Sarachan wasn't shy about using Dasan Robinson last year. He was the top defensive prospect in the draft, although he's supposed to be raw. So they needed somebody to replace Sanneh, but I hope they know what they're doing since Herron was the team MVP last year. A bigger need is the right side of midfield, which is where an SI could make a real difference. They could also use another quality forward.

The Fire's young players should continue to improve, but they'll be counting on a draft pick or two to make a real difference (again).

Possible Starting Lineup:

.................Rolfe.........Barrett.................
...Segares...........Thiago.........Mapp......
...............Guerrero......Armas...............
.........Robinson....Curtin....Brown.........
.........................Pickens..........................


COLUMBUS CREW

Waived M-Eric Vasquez and F-Knox Cameron. [11/17]

Lost D-Ritchie Kotschau to Toronto in the expansion draft. [11/17]

Acquired GK-Will Hesmer and M-Danny O'Rourke from Toronto for a partial allocation. [11/17]

Lost M-Sebastian Rozental after his contract was not renewed. [1/1]

Waived GK-Noah Palmer. [1/11]

Re-signed M-Ricardo Virtuoso to a multi-year deal using a partial allocation. [1/11]

Acquired F-Andy Herron from Chicago for a 2007 first round Superdraft pick (Bakary Soumare) and F-Ryan Coiner. [1/12]

Drafted F-Brad Evans, F-Aaron Chandler, and F-Ben Hunter in the 2007 Superdraft. [1/12]

Drafted D-Ryan Junge, M-Tonci Skroce, M-Ted Niziolek, and M-Kevin Burns in the 2007 supplemental draft. [1/18]

Acquired M-Stefani Miglioranzi from Los Angeles for a conditional 2008 Superdraft third round pick. [1/19]

Re-signed D/M-Frankie Hejduk to a two year deal. [1/25]

Announced GK-Jonny Walker has retired. [1/26]

Thoughts: They need to make the playoffs after two bad years, and they certainly are making moves. But will any of these guys make a difference? It was a good move to get Herron, as they needed somebody to score goals. But he isn't that big of an impact player. I know that they have a number of injured guys coming back (Gaven, Szetela, Hejduk, Busch), but it still seems like they're a couple of players away from being a good team. And no, Rozental wouldn't have got the job done. He was nothing special.

Speaking of Busch, as one Bigsoccer poster humorously put it, he's one big injury away from a real estate career. Hesmer's arrival probably means goodbye for Bill Gaudette, while I don't think anyone expects much out of Miglioranzi. What I want to know is, is Virtuoso the real deal? He looked good in the last couple games, but can he be an above-average MLS starter?

Sigi Schmid is a coach whose teams have been good on defensive and bad on offense. They were certainly better on defense last season. But there was no real improvement from 2005. They were tied for 7th both years in goals allowed, and went from 10th in goals scored in 2005 to last in 2006. At least the defense seems somewhat solid this year. But in the midfield and up top, you have a bunch of guys who are either unproven or inconsistent in this league. The Crew's lineup certainly has the potential to be good, at least.

Possible Starting Lineup:

................Herron........Ngwenya...............
....Virtuoso.............................Gaven..........
..............O'Rourke.......Szetela...................
...Ward...Gonzalez...Marshall...Hejduk...
............................Busch..............................


DC UNITED

Lost M-Rod Dyachenko to Toronto in the expansion draft. [11/17]

Waived M-Andy Metcalf, F-Matt Nickell, and F-Robert Ssejjemba. [11/21]

Acquired GK-Jay Nolly, a major allocation, and cash from Salt Lake for M-Freddy Adu, GK-Nick Rimando, and future considerations. [12/11]

Acquired a 2007 second round (Jay Needham) and 2008 third round Superdraft picks from Colorado for D-Brandon Prideaux. [12/12]

Acquired partial allocation from Toronto for F-Alecko Eskandarian. [12/22]

Lost M-Matias Donnet after his contract was not renewed. [1/1]

Drafted D/M-Bryan Arguez, F-Brad North, D/M-Jay Needham, F-Ricky Schramm, and GK-Luis Robles in the 2007 Superdraft. [1/12]

Signed F-Luciano Emilio. [1/16]

Drafted GK-Shawn Crowe and F-Guy-Roland Kpene in the 2007 supplemental draft. [1/18]

Re-signed M-Brian Carroll. [1/23]

Acquired M-Rod Dyachenko from Toronto for a 2008 first round Superdraft pick. [2/1]

Lost GK-Luis Robles when he signed with a foreign team. [2/2]

Thoughts: Lots of talent gone here, but nothing they can't replace. It all depends on the foreign signings. Emilio should be a capable replacement for Eskandarian. A scoring champion in Honduras probably means that he's an improvement. However, that doesn't excuse letting him go for virtually nothing. Donnet won't really be missed, while Adu would be playing out of position again thanks to Christian Gomez. That trade seems like a good deal for both teams. They just need a foreign right sided player, after the failure to sign the Brazilian Ruy.

I'm also surprised they got two decent picks from Colorado for Prideaux. Seems like a lot considering how certain guys are basically given away (Arvizu, van den Bergh). Dyachenko is worth a first round pick, as he seems like a decent prospect. They'll need a new backup goalkeeper because Nolly doesn't look likely to sign.

The biggest news of all for DC was the re-signing of Carroll. That was one guy they didn't want to lose. Now they have a the luxury of a talented Clyde Simms coming off the bench.

Possible Starting Lineup:

............Moreno........Emilio...............
........................Gomez.......................
....Gros.................................Olsen.....
...............Carroll......Simms...............
.........Namoff...Boswell...Erpen........
........................Perkins......................

KANSAS CITY WIZARDS

Lost GK-Will Hessmer to Toronto in the expansion draft. [11/17]

Waived GK-Bo Oshoniyi, M-Ryan McMahen, M-Sergei Raad, D/M-Stephen Shirley. [11/27]

Lost F-Josh Wolff as a free agent to 1860 Munich. [12/6]

Announced D-Brian Roberts would retire to become the Wizards' Youth Soccer Account Executive. [12/12]

Acquired GK-Kevin Hartman from Los Angeles for second round Superdraft picks in 2007 (Robbie Findlay) and 2008. [12/15]

Acquired 2007 third round supplemental draft pick (A.J. Godbolt) from New York for M-Dave van den Bergh. [1/11]

Drafted D-Michael Harrington, M/F-Edson Elcock, and F-Kurt Morsink in the 2007 Superdraft. [1/12]

Drafted D/M-Aaron Hohlbein, F-Michael Todd, GK-Chris Konopka, M-Eric Frimpong, M-A.J. Godbolt, M/F-Michael Kraus, and F-Willy Guadarrama in the 2007 supplemental draft. [1/18]

Thoughts: They've done less than the Crew, although they had more talent to begin with. With the loss of Wolff, the onus is directly on Johnson this season to score goals. They definitely need more firepower. I hate to think who they'll be starting up top during the Gold Cup.

The Hartman trade addressed one of their biggest weaknesses, so it was a good deal. But they negated that by giving away van den Bergh for nothing. It's not like they needed to free the SI spot. Onalfo needs to come through with some decent foreigners. With the parity of MLS, they could easily make the playoffs by standing pat. But it's hard to see a championship in their future with the current team.

Possible Starting Lineup:

.................Johnson........Sealy...................
............................Arnaud...........................
..Victorine..............................Jewsbury...
..........................Zavagnin..........................
...Burciaga...Conrad...Thomas...Garcia...
...........................Hartman..........................


NEW ENGLAND REVOLUTION

Waived D-Pat Haggerty, D/M-Danny Wynn, M-Jani Galik, and M-Adam Williamson. [11/16]

Lost M-Jose Cancela to Toronto in the expansion draft. [11/17]

Lost F-Jose Manuel Abundis after his contract was not renewed. [11/27]

Re-signed D-Joe Franchino, D/M-Daniel Hernandez, and M/F-Pat Noonan. [12/28]

Sold M/F-Clint Dempsey on a transfer (Fulham). [1/10]

Acquired 2007 fourth round Superdraft pick (Adam Christman) from Salt Lake for F-Kyle Brown. [1/12]

Drafted M-Wells Thompson, D-Amaechi Igwe, M-Ryan Solle, M-Bryan Byrne, F-Adam Cristman, and D-Kyle Helton in the 2007 Superdraft. [1/12]

Drafted GK-Phil Marfuggi, D-Gary Flood, and F-Chris Loftus in the 2007 supplemental draft. [1/18]

Re-signed GK-Doug Warren and M-Marshall Leonard. [1/23]

Waived GK-T.J. Tomasso. [1/23]

Thoughts: No major moves here. Dempsey's gone, but they return every other major contributer. That includes Avery John, who apparently did not catch on in Europe. Cancela's loss was no big deal, as he didn't seem to be in Steve Nicol's plans (much to Paul Gardner's dismay).

Drafting Igwe and Thompson means that Nicol is serious about finding a better option on the left side of midfield. Franchino ain't gonna cut it. They also have Leonard returning from injury, as well as Khano Smith. So one of those guys should step up and claim the job.

The biggest move of the offseason was MLS rejecting Celtic's $2 million offer for Joseph. Looks like he won't be moving until after the 2007 season.

Possible Starting Lineup:

.................Twellman........Noonan.................
.....Franchino.........Dorman...........Ralston...
.................Joseph..........Hernandez...............
.............John.....Parkhurst.....Heaps.............
................................Reis.................................


RED BULL NEW YORK

Announced M-Youri Djorkaeff and F-Jordan Cila have retired [11/14].

Lost M-Danny O'Rourke to Toronto in the expansion draft. [11/17]

Acquired D-Tim Regan from Toronto for F-Edson Buddle. [11/22]

Waived GK-Tony Meola, D-Steve Jolley, M-Chris Henderson, and M-Peter Canero. [11/22]

Drafted D-Eric Denton in waiver draft. [11/22]

Acquired a designated player slot and a 2007 third round Superdraft pick (Sinisa Ubiparipovic) from Chivas for M-Amado Guevara. [1/27]

Announced M-Mark Lisi has retired. [11/29]

Acquired M-Dave van den Bergh from Kansas City for 2007 third round supplemental draft pick (A.J. Godbolt). [1/11]

Acquired 2007 fourth round supplemental draft pick (Danny Cepero) from Chivas USA for F-David Arvizu. [1/12]

Drafted M/F-Dane Richards and M/F-Sinisa Ubiparipovic in the 2007 Superdraft. [1/12]

Drafted F-Randi Patterson, Sal Cacavale and GK-Danny Cepero in the 2007 supplemental draft. [1/18]

Signed M-Claudio Reyna. [1/24]

Acquired 2008 fourth round Superdraft pick and allocation from Toronto for F-Abbe Ibrahim and allocation. [1/25]

Signed GK-Ronald Waterreus. [1/29]

Acquired GK-Nick Rimando from Real Salt Lake for future considerations. [2/9]

Thoughts: Waterreus/Rimando is much better than Meola/Conway. With Denton and Regan, they'll have more depth on defense. Good moves to get cheap help, although you would think Buddle is worth more than just Regan. The Guevara deal was essentially for Reyna, and that should be an improvement. Guevara is very good, but Reyna is better when healthy and they haven't won anything with Amado.

Getting van den Bergh was an absolute steal, and even more so if he gets his green card. Now they should have him and Schopp on the wings, which is much better than Stammler and Henderson.

If the rumored moves for Austin Delgado and Alecko Eskandarian (for Conway, what a steal) happen as expected, they will easily be the league's most improved team, and one of the best overall. With Arena at the helm, it would be hard to bet against them. They could use another center back, but they look pretty solid otherwise.

Possible Starting Lineup:

...................Wolyniec....Altidore...............
...v.d.Bergh...............................Schopp.....
................Reyna.....Kovalenko..................
...Dunivant...Mendes...Parke...Wynne....
..........................Waterreus.........................


TORONTO FC

Signed M-Jim Brennan. [9/8]

Drafted M-Paulo Nagamura, M-Danny O'Rourke, M-Jose Cancela, D/M-Adrian Serioux, F-Nate Jaqua, M-Rod Dyachenko, F-Jason Kreis, D-Tim Regan, D-Ritchie Kotschau, and GK-Will Hesmer in the expansion draft. [11/17]

Acquired a partial allocation from Salt Lake for F-Jason Kreis. [11/17]

Acquired a partial allocation from Columbus for GK-Will Hesmer and M-Danny O'Rourke. [11/17]

Acquired M-Ronnie O'Brien from Dallas for D/M-Adrian Serioux and a 2007 second round Superdraft pick (Abdus Ibrahim). [11/17]

Acquired F-Edson Buddle from New York for D-Tim Regan. [11/22]

Signed D-Adam Braz, D-Chris Pozniak, and D-Marco Reza. [11/22]

Signed GK-Greg Sutton. [12/1]

Acquired a partial allocation from Los Angeles for F-Nate Jaqua. [12/15]

Acquired F-Alecko Eskandarian from DC United for a partial allocation. [12/22]

Drafted M-Maurice Edu, D-Andrew Boyens, M-Rich Asante, and F-Jeff Gonsalves in the 2007 Superdraft. [1/12]

Drafted F-Jarrod Smith, F-Daryl Roberts, F-Hunter West, and M-Tyler Hemming in the 2007 supplemental draft. [1/18]

Acquired F-Abbe Ibrahim and allocation from New York for 2008 fourth round Superdraft pick and allocation. [1/25]

Acquired a 2008 first round Superdraft pick from DC United for M-Rod Dyachenko. [2/1]

Waived D-Ritchie Kotschau. [2/1]

Signed M-Carl Robinson. [2/1]

Thoughts: Johnston and Toronto have done a good job with their trades. The expansion draft and the moves after it were nothing short of brilliant. Afterwards, they had gotten O'Brien, Buddle and lots of allocation money. Taking Kreis and Jaqua was very smart. Now they have a first round pick next year for Dyachenko as well. That's the advantage of having a coach that understands the league and how it works.

The hard part will be the Canadian players. Are there enough quality guys out there to fill up a senior roster on MLS salaries? Besides the 4 SIs, Toronto will be allowed 3 additional American "SIs." As it stands now, they have Robinson/O'Brien/Cancela/Buddle/Eskandarian, which takes up 5/7 spots. Conor Casey, when that is officially announced, leaves only one spot. They're rumored to trade Esky for Jon Conway, which would still leave them with one. Johnston just stated that he has about $1 million in allocation money, so he should be able to buy a decent Canadian star or two with that.

I'm not familiar with the Canadian defenders they've signed, who will make up the defense. They're all national team members though, and Sutton is a quality keeper as well. Superdraft number one pick Edu might have to open the season playing behind Nagamura. Overall, Toronto certainly looks much better than the last two expansion teams.

Possible Starting Lineup:

.........Buddle...........Eskandarian.......
........................Cancela........................
...Robinson.........................O'Brien....
......................Nagamura.....................
...Brennan...Braz...Reda...Pozniak....
..........................Sutton........................

Comments on "MLS Transaction Analysis - 2/12/2007"

 

Anonymous jw said ... (11:19 AM, February 13, 2007) : 

Nice work!
Just a note on Avery John. Crystal Palace came to MLS asking about him in January, but they, (MLS), rejected any offer and picked up his option for this upcoming season.

 

Anonymous Anonymous said ... (7:12 PM, February 14, 2007) : 

FYI: DC United is signing 19 year old left sided winger from Fulham named Kasili Yinka Casal who many Fulham supporters are pretty sad to see go.

He is currently practicing with United in Florida.

 

post a comment