2010 Seeding Formula: June 2007 Update

The latest FIFA rankings are out. Assuming all the highest ranked teams qualify, here's how the race for the 2010 seeds looks as of now. South Africa is guaranteed a seed as hosts. For more details on how the formula works, please see here. Top Seven Teams Seeded Total WC FIFA 1 Italy 59.3 27.3 32 1 Brazil 59.3 29.3 30 1 Germany 59.3 30.3 29 4 France 54.3 23.3 31 5 England 51.3 26.3 25 5 Spain 51.3 25.3 26 7 Portugal 49.3 22.3 27 8 Argentina 49.0 21.0 28 9 Netherlands 38.7 14.7 24 10 Ukraine 36.7 16.7 20 11 Sweden 35.3 19.3 16 12 Mexico 32.3 19.3 13 13 Croatia 31.0 9.0 22 14 USA 30.7 13.7 17 15 Czech 29.0 6.0 23 16 Ghana 28.3 13.3 15 17 Cameroon 22.0 3.0 19 18 Romania 21.0 0.0 21 19 Japan 20.3 13.3 7 20 Cote d'Ivoire 20.0 6.0 14 21 Paraguay 19.7 11.7 8 22 Korea 18.7 15.7 3 23 Greece 18.0 0.0 18 24 Australia 15.3 11.3 4 25 Uruguay 14.7 2.7 12 26 Costa Rica 14.3 8.3 6 27 Nigeria 12.7 2.7 10 28 Colombia 11.0 0.0 11 29 Iran 10.3 5.3 5 30 Morocco 9.0 0.0 9 31 South Africa 5.0 3.0 2 32 Uzbekistan 1.0 0.0 1 As you can see, there are basically 8 teams fighting for the 7 seeds. Little has changed since the new cycle began, but things will be getting very exciting shortly. In November, the World Cup qualifying draws will be made. That will have an impact on these rankings, especially when it comes to the Euro teams. In addition, this December is the first of the three months (12/08, 11/09) that make up the final ranking. With all the tournaments going on this summer, we'll see lots of changes in the FIFA rankings before then. That's especially good news for the USA, because the Gold Cup gives us a chance to move up. We moved up to 16th just based on the China, Guatemala, and Trinidad games. If we win the tournament, and get out of the group stage at the Copa America, we should definitely crack the top ten again. It's extremely unlikely for us to end up being seeded in 2010, but with a top ten ranking and some luck with the other teams, it could happen. It would probably require 2 of the top 8 failing to qualify. Mock Draw Pot 1: Brazil, England, France, Germany, Italy, Portugal, South Africa, Spain Pot 2: Croatia, Czech Republic, Greece, Netherlands, Romania, Sweden, Ukraine Pot 3: Australia, Costa Rica, Iran, Japan, Korea Republic, Mexico, USA, Uzbekistan Pot 4: Argentina, Cameroon, Colombia, Cote d'Ivoire, Ghana, Morocco, Nigeria, Paraguay, Uruguay Group A: South Africa, Czech Republic, USA, Paraguay Group B: Spain, Ukraine, Mexico, Nigeria Group C: France, Iran, Cote d'Ivoire, Colombia Group D: England, Croatia, Japan, Ghana Group E: Brazil, Sweden, Uzbekistan, Morocco Group F: Italy, Netherlands, Costa Rica, Argentina Group G: Portugal, Romania, Korea Republic, Uruguay Group H: Germany, Greece, Australia, Cameroon Argentina not being seeded would certainly create the possibility of a monster group like shown here, much more than a top Euro team not being seeded. Of course I'm doubtful something like this would happen.