Saturday, July 21, 2007

2010 Seeding Formula: July 2007 update

The new FIFA rankings are out for July, so it's once again time to look ahead to the next World Cup.

Top 7 teams seeded

(South Africa automatically seeded as hosts)



Total WC FIFA
1 Brazil 61.3 29.3 32
2 Germany 58.3 30.3 28
3 Italy 57.3 27.3 30
4 France 52.3 23.3 29
5 Argentina 52.0 21.0 31
6 Spain 49.3 25.3 24
7 England 47.3 26.3 21
7 Portugal 47.3 22.3 25





9 Mexico 42.3 19.3 23
10 Netherlands 41.7 14.7 27
11 Croatia 35.0 9.0 26
12 USA 32.7 13.7 19
13 Ukraine 32.2 16.7 15.5
14 Czech 28.0 6.0 22
15 Paraguay 23.7 11.7 12
16 Japan 21.3 13.3 8
17 Cameroon 21.0 3.0 18
18 Serbia 20.8 5.3 15.5
19 Ghana 20.3 13.3 7
20 Romania 20.0 0.0 20
21 Korea 17.7 15.7 2
22 Greece 17.0 0.0 17
23 Cote d'Ivoire 17.0 6.0 11
24 Uruguay 16.7 2.7 14
25 Australia 16.3 11.3 5
26 Nigeria 15.7 2.7 13
27 Costa Rica 12.3 8.3 4
28 Iran 11.3 5.3 6
29 Colombia 10.0 0.0 10
30 Morocco 9.0 0.0 9
31 South Africa 4.0 3.0 1
32 Uzbekistan 3.0 0.0 3


England and Portugal are exactly tied for the last spot as of now. I dunno how a tie would be broken, but it's unlikely we would have one when the draw is made, and also I'm sure FIFA would alter the formula somehow so it couldn't happen, thus making speculating over tiebreakers pointless.

Mexico's jump shows that if they can stay in the top ten in the FIFA rankings, they have a decent shot at a seed. Still a longshot, but they're a more likely seed than the Netherlands. Sweden's ranking decreased this month and they are replaced by Serbia, the only change.

For an FAQ on these rankings and links to previous editions, see this link.


Mock Draw

Pot 1: Argentina, Brazil, England, France, Germany, Italy, South Africa, Spain
Pot 2: Croatia, Czech Republic, Greece, Netherlands, Portugal, Romania, Serbia, Ukraine
Pot 3: Australia, Costa Rica, Iran, Japan, Korea Republic, Mexico, USA, Uzbekistan
Pot 4: Cameroon, Colombia, Cote d'Ivoire, Ghana, Morocco, Nigeria, Paraguay, Uruguay

Group A: South Africa, Romania, Iran, Colombia
Group B: Spain, Ukraine, Mexico, Paraguay
Group C: Brazil, Czech, Costa Rica, Nigeria
Group D: England, Croatia, Uzbekistan, Ghana
Group E: France, Portugal, Japan, Cameroon
Group F: Italy, Greece, South Korea, Uruguay
Group G: Argentina, Netherlands, Australia, Morocco
Group H: Germany, Serbia, USA, Cote d'Ivoire

South Africa and Italy automatically put in their groups. I picked England as a seed for this cuz they're more likely to get it in the end.

Comments on "2010 Seeding Formula: July 2007 update"

 

Blogger RobinFiveWords said ... (10:24 PM, July 22, 2007) : 

I agree that FIFA would alter the formula rather than admit a tie for the 7th seed. They don't have to admit to changing the formula, though. [Self promotion warning.]

 

Blogger Phillip said ... (8:47 AM, July 23, 2007) : 

I would be curious to see if playing in Africa will significantly help the African teams advance.

Still seems like it would be a tough group for the US though.

 

Blogger ERic said ... (2:49 PM, July 24, 2007) : 

That looks disturbingly like 2006 for the US.

 

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