Friday, September 21, 2007

Estimated 2008 MLS Superdraft Order

EDITED 9/27 - To reflect DC's picks received for Quaranta and Adu.

I was looking at the trades that have been made involving next year's draft (this site has a nice list of transactions) and I've come up with a list of picks that have changed hands. Using that and the current standings, we can come up with an order for next year's draft.

Things to keep in mind:

1) The final order of the eight playoff teams will be determined by where they are eliminated. For example, last year Houston drafted #13 and runner up New England drafted #12. The two semifinalists were next followed by the four quarterfinalists. DC drafted below Colorado due to regular season performance which is the tiebreaker, same thing for the quarterfinalists.

For this ranking, I'm just using the current playoff matchups and assuming the better teams advance.

2) Six picks on this list are conditional. What's interesting is that for a couple of them, they mention a specific round. I'm guessing that means that it's going to be at least that good? I did a little guessing for that part, usually assuming the worst pick would be traded.

3) If a trade is missing from this list, or there are any errors, please post in the comments. Thanks.

Estimated 2008 Superdraft Order

Round One

1 San Jose Earthquakes
2 Los Angeles Galaxy
3 Real Salt Lake
4 FC Dallas
5 Columbus Crew
6 Colorado Rapids
7 Chicago Fire
8 Kansas City Wizards
9 Red Bull New York
10 FC Dallas
11 Toronto FC
12 New England Revolution
13 Real Salt Lake
14 Toronto FC

Round Two

15 San Jose Earthquakes
16 Kansas City Wizards
17 Real Salt Lake
18 Red Bull New York
19 Columbus Crew
20 FC Dallas
21 Chicago Fire
22 Los Angeles Galaxy
23 Los Angeles Galaxy
24 FC Dallas
25 Los Angeles Galaxy
26 DC United
27 Kansas City Wizards
28 DC United

Round Three

29 San Jose Earthquakes
30 Los Angeles Galaxy
31 DC United
32 Toronto FC
33 Los Angeles Galaxy
34 DC United
35 Chicago Fire
36 Kansas City Wizards
37 Colorado Rapids
38 Toronto FC
39 Houston Dynamo
40 New England Revolution
41 CD Chivas USA
42 DC United

Round Four

43 San Jose Earthquakes
44 Los Angeles Galaxy
45 FC Dallas
46 Red Bull New York
47 Columbus Crew
48 Colorado Rapids
49 Chicago Fire
50 Kansas City Wizards
51 Los Angeles Galaxy
52 FC Dallas
53 Houston Dynamo
54 New England Revolution
55 CD Chivas USA
56 Chicago Fire

DAL, RSL, and TOR all have two first-rounders, while CHV, DC, and HOU have none. The Galaxy have 7 of the first 33 picks and should be in a good position to improve their team. Meanwhile, Chivas and Houston both only have two picks, each having only third and fourth rounders. You can't really argue with their decisions though, as they both got quality players for their first and second rounders. Chivas got Paulo Nagamura and Alex Zotinca, while Houston got Richard Mulrooney and Nate Jaqua. It almost seems like teams should ask for more and better draft picks for their players, although a lot of the trades are due to roster and salary cap limits.

Total picks & Positions

LA 8 picks 2, 22, 23, 25, 30, 33, 44, 51
DAL 6 picks 4, 10, 20, 24, 45, 52
CHI 5 picks 7, 21, 35, 49, 56
DC 5 picks 26, 28, 31, 34, 42
KC 5 picks 8, 16, 27, 36, 50
RSL 3 picks 3, 13, 17
SJ 4 picks 1, 15, 29, 43
TOR 4 picks 11, 14, 32, 38
CLB 3 picks 5, 19, 47
COL 3 picks 6, 37, 48
NE 3 picks 12, 40, 54
NY 3 picks 9, 18, 46
CHV 2 picks 41, 55
HOU 2 picks 39, 53

Trade/Pick Movement List

Round 1

DAL has TOR's pick (Mulrooney trade)
TOR has HOU's pick (Mulrooney trade)
TOR has CHV's pick (Nagamura trade)
RSL has 2nd highest of TOR's 3 picks (Cunningham trade)
TOR has DC's pick (Dyachenko trade)

Round 2

NY has TOR's pick (Wynne trade)
LA has HOU's pick (Jaqua trade)
KC has LA's pick (Thomas trade, conditional)
DAL has COL's pick (Vanney trade)
LA has KC's pick (Hartman trade)
LA has NY's pick (Wolyniec trade)
LA has NE's pick (allocation/1st rounder trade)

Round 3

DC has COL's natural pick (Prideaux trade)
TOR has COL's pick, presumably one of the two listed next (Casey trade)
COL has NY's pick (Freeman trade)
COL has DAL's pick (Vanney trade)
LA has CLB's pick (Miglioranzi trade, conditional)
DC has RSL's pick (Adu trade, see Goff's comment here)

Round 4

LA has NY's pick (Quaranta trade, conditional)
DAL has RSL's pick (4th rounder trade)
NY has TOR's pick (Ibrahim trade)


CHI has DC's pick (Monteiro trade, conditional)
KC has CHV's pick (Zotinca trade, conditional: 2nd or 3rd round)
DC has LA's pick (Quaranta trade, conditional: 1st or 2nd round)

Supplemental Trades

COL has RSL's 1st round pick (Wingert trade)
NE has DAL's 1st round pick (salary cap considerations trade)
CHI has CLB's 4th round pick (Griffin trade)

Comments on "Estimated 2008 MLS Superdraft Order"


Blogger jason said ... (4:40 PM, September 24, 2007) : 

DC should have LA's 2nd round pick (Quaranta trade) and RSL's (Adu trade).


Blogger scaryice said ... (3:06 AM, September 25, 2007) : 

Do have any links for those? I know about the Quaranta pick, I have it up there, but it's listed as conditional. I just considered it a 4th rounder until further notice.

Where do you get the Adu pick from? Is that the future considerations mentioned at the time of the deal?


Blogger jason said ... (4:12 PM, September 26, 2007) : 

Goff mentioned the pick in his posting when Adu was about to transfer. If Adu had stayed the entire season, the pick would have been a first rounder (that was the conditional pick mentioned in the deal).

The same is true of the Quaranta trade. It was supposed to be a first rounder if Quaranta did well, but became a second rounder once he left the team.

Both were mentioned months ago by Goff, but I don't have the exact dates the respective posts were made.


Blogger scaryice said ... (3:12 AM, September 27, 2007) : 

Thanks, I found them and edited the post to reflect the changes. The Adu pick is a 3rd rounder.


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