Monday, December 17, 2007

2010 Seeding Formula: December 2007 update

The new FIFA rankings are out for December. This is the big month that we've been waiting for. The rankings this month get locked into place, giving us 1/3rd of the rankings half of the formula. So now we know 4/6ths of the total formula (which is of course, half World Cup performance and half FIFA rankings: 12/07, 12/08, and 11/09).

The actual rankings themselves were a bore though, as there was only a tiny change due to Japan falling out of a tie with Guinea. So currently England and Portugal are still tied for the last seed.

To discuss this on Bigsoccer, and for an FAQ on these rankings and links to previous editions, see this link.

Top 7 teams seeded

(South Africa automatically seeded as hosts)



Total WC FIFA Change
1 Brazil 60.3 29.3 31 0.0
2 Germany 58.3 30.3 28 0.0
3 Italy 57.3 27.3 30 0.0
4 Spain 54.3 25.3 29 0.0
5 Argentina 53.0 21.0 32 0.0
6 France 49.3 23.3 26 0.0
7 England 47.3 26.3 21 0.0
7 Portugal 47.3 22.3 25 0.0






9 Netherlands 38.7 14.7 24 0.0
10 Mexico 37.3 19.3 18 0.0
11 Czech 33.0 6.0 27 0.0
12 Croatia 32.0 9.0 23 0.0
13 USA 28.7 13.7 15 0.0
14 Turkey 27.0 10.0 17 0.0
15 Paraguay 24.7 11.7 13 0.0
16 Japan 22.3 13.3 9 -0.5
17 Greece 22.0 0.0 22 0.0
18 South Korea 20.7 15.7 5 0.0
19 Romania 20.0 0.0 20 0.0
20 Scotland 19.0 0.0 19 0.0
21 Nigeria 16.7 2.7 14 0.0
22 Colombia 16.0 0.0 16 0.0
23 Senegal 15.7 8.7 7 0.0
24 Australia 15.3 11.3 4 0.0
25 Cameroon 15.0 3.0 12 0.0
26 Cote d'Ivoire 14.0 6.0 8 0.0
27 Uruguay 13.7 2.7 11 0.0
28 Iran 11.3 5.3 6 0.0
29 Guinea 10.0 0.0 10 0.5
29 Saudi Arabia 10.0 8.0 2 0.0
31 South Africa 4.0 3.0 1 0.0
32 Honduras 3.0 0.0 3 0.0


Mock Draw

(England and Portugal are currently tied for the final seed. I decided to use England because their World Cup performance, aka the half of the formula that is fully set in stone, is higher)

Pot 1: Argentina, Brazil, England, France, Germany, Italy, South Africa, Spain
Pot 2: Croatia, Czech, Greece, Netherlands, Portugal, Romania, Scotland, Turkey
Pot 3: Cameroon, Colombia, Cote d'Ivoire, Guinea, Nigeria, Paraguay, Senegal, Uruguay
Pot 4: Australia, Honduras, Iran, Japan, Korea Republic, Mexico, Saudi Arabia, USA

Group A: South Africa, Turkey, Uruguay, Japan
Group B: Germany, Croatia, Paraguay, Australia
Group C: France, Portugal, Cameroon, Mexico
Group D: England, Netherlands, Guinea, Iran
Group E: Brazil, Czech, Cote d'Ivoire, USA
Group F: Italy, Scotland, Colombia, Saudi Arabia
Group G: Spain, Greece, Nigeria, Korea Republic
Group H: Argentina, Romania, Senegal, Honduras

Comments on "2010 Seeding Formula: December 2007 update"

 

Blogger ERic said ... (5:50 PM, December 17, 2007) : 

Holy crap. If we got that, I would consider the Asia Minnows approach and consider skipping the tournament.

 

Blogger Craig said ... (11:04 AM, December 18, 2007) : 

As long as CONCACAF is drawn from the same pot as AFC, we're going to get a challenging draw. We'll have a marginal chance at drawing a weak Euro side (probably no better than 25%), the seed is always good, and if we assume that the CONMEBOL 5th beats the CONCACAF 4th, we'd have a 12.5% chance at drawing the weakest CONMEBOL team from that pot.

If there is a group that is identified as the "Group of Death", it will almost certainly have either us or Mexico in it.

 

Anonymous Eric B said ... (11:36 AM, December 19, 2007) : 

Of course, South Africa could be the weakest host nation since, well, us. So that could be make for a little easier draw.

 

Blogger D.H. Pang said ... (9:21 PM, December 23, 2007) : 

I hope two years form now we don't send Reyna. Don't get me wrong, he was great in his time, but his time has passed.

DeRosario should apply for US residency.

 

Blogger Craig said ... (1:09 PM, December 31, 2007) : 

Eric, you're right of course, there's a 12.5% chance of drawing South Africa.

Let's put the percentages to work:
Pot A: 87.5% chance of a non-SA seed
Pot B: 75% chance of a strong Euro
Pot C: 25% chance of 5th-place CONMEBOL or 5th-place CAF

Net: 49% chance of landing in the Group of Death. Yay.

d.h., DeRo is cap-tied to Canada, I don't see what U.S. residency has to do with anything. And Reyna is finished at the NT level (and pretty close to finished at the club level, he can't stay healthy).

 

Blogger Craig said ... (1:13 PM, December 31, 2007) : 

Note that I inverted my pot C probability so that you could see where it's coming from, you multiply it in as a 75% probability.

That's also the weakest-reasoned of the bunch, pot C may wind up being closer to 50% "easy" teams as I think we can handle anybody not named Brazil or Argentina from CONMEBOL and there are likely to be two manageable CAF teams instead of just one.

 

Blogger martincruz88 said ... (5:54 PM, June 04, 2008) : 

haha wow have you seen the group c?? that would probably be the toughest group of death in the history of the world cup.


France
Cameroon
Mexico
Portugal.

are you kidding me?? WOW

 

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