Monday, July 21, 2008

List of MLS Weighted Lotteries

Previous Weighted Lotteries

2000-Mario Longo, CLB
2001-Paul Grafer, SJ (says it was a "lottery draft")
2001-Gus Kartes, COL
2001-Hamisi Amani-Dove, DAL
2002-Nelson Akwari, NY
2002-D.J. Countess, NY
2002-Winston Griffiths, DAL
2003-Joey DiGiamarino, NY
2004-Danny Szetela, CLB
2005-Alex Yi, DAL
2006-David Arvizu, NY
2007-Robbie Rogers, CLB
2007-Israel Sesay, LA
2008-Bruno Guarda, COL
2009-Paulo Campos, SJ
2009-Kyle Davies, RSL
2010-Luis Gil, KC
2010-Sal Zizzo, CHV
2011-David Bingham, SJ
2011-Cody Arnoux, RSL
2011-Chris Agorsor, PHI
2011-Korey Veeder, CLB
2011-Sonny Saad, KC

To refresh your memory, weighted lotteries are to be used for the following reasons:

1. Generation adidas players signed after the MLS SuperDraft
2. Draft eligible players to whom an MLS contract was offered but who failed to sign with the League prior to the Draft.

The following was written at the time of the Bruno Guarda lottery:

He's the latest player to be the subject of the dreaded weighted lottery. Played for SMU under Schellas Hyndman, so I'm sure if Dallas wins there will be a lot of complaining. I don't really know anything about him, but Buzz at apparently thinks that he would've been a first rounder in this year's draft.

Based on this 2004 article from the Szetela signing, I can put together a little preview of who is most likely to get him. Basically, you take the total points over the past 30 regular season games (one season's worth) and give bonuses to teams who did well in the playoffs. I'm assuming that it's still the same four years later. Read the link for more details.

Several things to consider when looking at this. First of all, SJ would have to go back to their 2005 season to get a full 30 games. They could do that, or perhaps more likely, just take the current PPG and expand it to 30 games worth of points. They would then be the #1 team. I've included the 2005 results below. Second, not all of these teams may participate. Third, the amount of points between the positions should not matter. So even though Toronto is ahead of Dallas by 8 points, the chances for each team would be the same if the gap was only 1 point. However, it seems like that may not be the case anymore based on the Arvizu percentages.

Total Points Bonus
1 TOR 28 28 0
2 DAL 36 34 2
3 COL 39 39 0
3 NY 39 37 2
3 RSL 39 39 0
6 KC 40 36 4
7 CLB 43 43 0
7 LA 43 43 0
9 SJ 47 47 0
10 CHV 50 48 2
11 HOU 51 43 8
12 CHI 53 49 4
13 DC 55 53 2
14 NE 59 53 6

Obviously, it seems that Guarda probably wants to go to Dallas. I bet they (Dallas and him) analyzed this and probably tried to do schedule this at a time when Dallas would be most likely to get him. Toronto may not even want him since I believe they don't have any open international slots I (thought they could always use him as trade bait).


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