Voros has posted odds for every team on his web site (along with an analysis), which are based on his national team rankings. He's had a pretty decent track record with these things; I believe his 2006 World Cup simulations had France as the top team and his EURO 2008 simulations had Spain second.
It's great stuff, because he's taking into account the strengths of the team which is hard to quantify. I love to see people put together simulations like that, but I wanted to see how the teams broke down by group rather than just in a big list like he has it. So I've done that here:
Africa
Cameroon | 32.73% | Gabon | 26.25% | Morocco | 24.20% | Togo | 16.82% |
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| Tunisia | 51.97% | Nigeria | 44.34% | Mozambique | 2.60% | Kenya | 1.09% |
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| Egypt | 56.38% | Zambia | 23.29% | Algeria | 15.72% | Rwanda | 4.61% |
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| Ghana | 72.35% | Mali | 23.33% | Benin | 3.17% | Sudan | 1.15% |
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| Côte d'Ivoire | 89.06% | Burkina Faso | 5.44% | Guinea | 5.27% | Malawi | 0.23% |
Asia/Oceania
Australia | 99.98% | Japan | 99.94% | Bahrain | 18.98% | Uzbekistan | 7.81% | Qatar | 0.12% |
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| Korea Republic | 98.37% | Saudi Arabia | 66.16% | Iran | 44.78% | Korea DPR | 43.20% | UAE | out |
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| New Zealand | 20.66% |
Europe
Denmark | 84.38% | Sweden | 45.81% | Portugal | 15.51% | Hungary | 6.80% | Albania | 0.00% | Malta | out |
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| Greece | 78.36% | Switzerland | 59.58% | Israel | 10.73% | Latvia | 0.16% | Luxembourg | 0.00% | Moldova | 0.00% |
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| Slovakia | 69.14% | Czech Republic | 37.08% | Poland | 22.62% | Slovenia | 6.75% | Northern Ireland | 5.49% | San Marino | out |
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| Germany | 96.31% | Russia | 50.87% | Finland | 5.96% | Wales | 0.04% | Azerbaijan | 0.00% | Liechtenstein | 0.00% |
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| Spain | 99.99% | Bosnia-Herzegovina | 18.11% | Turkey | 15.47% | Belgium | 0.08% | Armenia | 0.00% | Estonia | 0.00% |
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| England | 98.89% | Croatia | 33.64% | Ukraine | 22.47% | Belarus | 1.19% | Andorra | 0.00% | Kazakhstan | 0.00% |
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| France | 84.19% | Serbia | 71.04% | Lithuania | 1.37% | Austria | 1.03% | Romania | 0.63% | Faroe Islands | 0.00% |
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| Italy | 95.00% | Ireland Republic | 29.75% | Bulgaria | 18.50% | Montenegro | 0.37% | Cyprus | 0.02% | Georgia | 0.00% |
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| Netherlands | 99.89% | Scotland | 12.68% | Norway | 0.10% | Iceland | 0.00% | Macedonia FYR | 0.00% | North America
USA | 96.86% | Mexico | 93.99% | Costa Rica | 71.59% | Honduras | 66.42% | Trinidad & Tobago | 2.20% | El Salvador | 1.13% |
South America
Brazil | 99.87% | Paraguay | 99.16% | Argentina | 94.64% | Chile | 79.85% | Uruguay | 72.30% | Colombia | 12.96% | Ecuador | 6.32% | Venezuela | 1.74% | Bolivia | 0.97% | Peru | 0.00% | Labels: 2010 world cup |
Comments on "Voros' 2010 World Cup Qualification Odds"
It's surprising to me that Netherlands % is smaller than Spain. I mean, they're both pretty much mortal locks, but Netherlands have already clinched 2nd, and can clinch first next game. Spain hasn't, and can only assure themselves 2nd next time.