Tuesday, May 12, 2009

MLS: Pace After 10 Games

I looked at this before a couple games into the season, but now that several teams will hit the one-third mark this coming weekend I think it's time to revisit it. Historically, how have teams done for the year after starting the season a certain way?. I've taken a look at all 149 previous MLS seasons to produce these tables (of course, MLS hasn't always played a 30 game season so this isn't the 1/3rd mark for many teams):

Points Times Year End PPG
28 1 1.66
26 1 1.78
25 2 2.11
22 2 1.88
21 3 1.61
20 6 1.54
19 8 1.64
18 8 1.70
17 11 1.57
16 8 1.49
15 14 1.32
14 12 1.33
13 11 1.43
12 10 1.46
11 16 1.24
10 14 1.21
9 7 1.02
8 4 1.18
7 7 1.11
6 3 0.99
4 1 0.56

Year end PPG is an average of all the teams with that many points through 10 games. Now let's break it down into categories:


Broken Down

Points Times Year End PPG
19-28 23 1.68
16-18 27 1.59
13-15 37 1.36
10-12 40 1.28
4-9 22 1.05

An average PPG is considered about 1.38. That's my rational for the point categories in the second table. 13-15 should be about average (close to within 0.1), while 10 and 18 are both about 0.2-0.4 away from it. So how many teams in each category finished above or below average?


Finished Above or Below Average?

Points Above Below
19-28 22 1
16-18 23 4
13-15 13 24
10-12 11 29
4-9 2 20

Eight fewer teams have finished above average compared to below (71-79). There's not a huge difference between the third and fourth categories. Now how about making the playoffs? Admittedly a pretty easy thing to do in many years.


Made Playoffs?

Points Yes No
19-28 23 0
16-18 24 3
13-15 25 12
10-12 26 14
4-9 6 16

It should be a little harder this year to feel safe.


Notes
  • Shootouts (1996-99) are counted as draws, both in the tables and in any sentence below.
  • The only one team with 18+ points through 10 games finished below average was KC 2007.
  • The only two teams with 10 or fewer points to finish above average were COL 1998 & COL 2005.
  • No team has ever had more than 17 points through 10 games and missed the playoffs. Last year's Toronto FC team had exactly 17 and missed out, the highest total to do so.
  • Even if they beat DC on Saturday, Chivas USA will not be able to have the best 10 game start ever. The best they could do is tied for 3rd. The top two are 1996 LA (9-0-1, 28 pts) and 2000 KC (8-0-2, 26 pts).
  • Chivas already holds the record for the worst 10 game start in 2005 (1-8-1, 4 pts). FC Dallas can match it with two more losses.
  • The record for most draws in the opening 10 games is held by Mo Johnston's 2006 New York Red Bulls (1-2-7, 10 pts). Chicago and Los Angeles could both match or break this record.
  • Several teams could still set or match their 10 game highs or lows. Chivas has already set a high (previously 17 - 2007), and could be joined by Colorado (19 - 1999, 2002), Houston (16 - 2007), and Real Salt Lake (11 - 2005, 2006, 2008).
  • Teams that could set or match 10 game lows are Columbus (8 - 2007), Dallas (9 - 2003), Houston (11 - 2008), New England (9 - 2001, 2004), New York (8 - 1996), and San Jose (6 -1999).
  • After 10 games, no Supporters' Shield winner had fewer than 13 points. No MLS Cup winner had fewer than 11 points. 7/13 Shield winners had the best first 10 game record in the league or were tied for it. Only one shield winner wasn't in the top four in the league (2005 SJ).

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