Thursday, September 03, 2009

SOS Update

Time to check in on the remaining strength of schedule for each MLS team. Listed below is the average PPG of the team's remaining opponents, and the second column is the home/away breakdown of their remaining games.



PPG H-A
1 COL 1.19 3-5
2 DC 1.22 5-2
3
CHV 1.27 5-3
4
NY 1.28 3-3
5 RSL 1.29 3-3
6 TOR 1.30 3-4
7 SJ 1.32 3-5
8 KC 1.34 4-5
9 DAL 1.34 4-4
10 NE 1.34 4-5
11 LA 1.36 4-2
12 SEA 1.37 2-4
13 HOU 1.43 3-2
14 CHI 1.51 3-3
15 CLB 1.53 4-3

KC, DAL, and NE are not tied, the difference is just very small.

Colorado and DC have the easiest schedules, while Chicago and Columbus have the hardest. DC should really kick themselves if they can't make the playoffs with this schedule. Like I said last time, the home/away split probably matters way more than how good the opponents are. That's why Seattle's fall wasn't unexpected to anyone paying attention, since at one point they had only 4 home games out of 12 matches remaining.

I wouldn't write them off completely, since six games is not a lot and anything can happen. Like with Colorado, who's schedule is the easiest. They have a two game home and away series with Toronto coming up. If they get only 1 point out of it, then things are suddenly dicey for them and looking good for TFC. That's parity for you.

UPDATE:

On Bigsoccer, poster T-Bo wanted to know what the SOS would look like using the home and away PPGs of each opponent rather than just the overall PPG. Here's the results:



PPG H-A
1 DC 0.99 5-2
2 CHV 1.08 5-3
3 TOR 1.11 3-4
4 DAL 1.19 4-4
5 LA 1.29 4-2
6 COL 1.30 3-5
7 SJ 1.36 3-5
8 RSL 1.38 3-3
9 CHI 1.41 3-3
10 KC 1.41 4-5
11 SEA 1.44 2-4
12 NY 1.47 3-3
13 CLB 1.47 4-3
14 HOU 1.55 3-2
15 NE 1.58 4-5

This definitely takes into account the home/away factor, as DC easily gets the top spot. The teams from 2-4 also had big decreases in the PPG. Maybe Toronto's playoff chances are better than previously thought? They do play Chicago and LA away, who both do worse at home than away. That has a lot to do with their improvement.

NE had the biggest increase, moving from 10th to 15th. NY was second. Here's a list of the differences in PPG between the two methods:

1 DC -0.24
2 TOR -0.19
3 CHV -0.19
4 DAL -0.16
5 CHI -0.11
6 LA -0.07
7 CLB -0.06
8 SJ 0.04
9 KC 0.07
10 SEA 0.07
11 RSL 0.09
12 COL 0.11
13 HOU 0.12
14 NY 0.18
51 NE 0.24

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