Alternate History: If the NFL had Promotion & Relegation

The year is 1970. The Kansas City Chiefs have just defeated the Minnesota Vikings in Super Bowl IV, evening the score at two wins each for the NFL and the AFL. It's now time for the merger between the two leagues to take place. But instead of the Baltimore Colts, Cleveland Browns, and Pittsburgh Steelers jumping to the new American Football Conference and making one 26 team league, the owners instead decide to take a cue from European soccer and institute pro/rel in a major American sport for the first time. It's decided that the 10 AFL teams will be joined by the three worst NFL teams from 1969: the Chicago Bears, Pittsburgh Steelers, and Saint Louis Cardinals. Together, they would from a second division, the NFL-2. Meanwhile, the playoffs and Super Bowl would continue to settle the NFL league champion, but now there was drama at the bottom of the standings as well. Thus, a new era began for professional football. How did everything turn out? Many, many details after the jump. RULES Three teams were promoted and relegated in each season, using the real life win-loss records. There was an exception for most of the expansion years (1976, 1995, 1999): in the year before, only two teams were relegated to keep the leagues equal. All expansion teams would automatically enter in the second division, with the exception of Baltimore (though it turned out not to matter). In 1999 when Cleveland joined, this meant that the leagues were uneven (16-15). Therefore, in 2002 when Houston joined, there was no need to relegate fewer teams. Each year has the same number of playoff teams as one conference did in real life. So that's four from 1970-77, five from 1978-89, and six from 1990-present. The playoff teams would be determined by the top teams based on the overall records (not on who actually qualified). The Super Bowl winner and runner up were then determined by looking at the qualified playoff teams, then taking the top two which advanced furthest in the real life playoffs (then using the season records if still tied). I didn't go to the trouble of actually seeding teams for every year, since it's not like the records would be exactly the same anyway. Tiebreakers were broken by head-to-head record, followed by point differential. SUPER BOWL CHANGES As it turns out, only 6/41 had different winners than in real life using this system. However, an additional 18 runners up were different than in real life. Here's the list, with champions first. Differences from real life are in red text. 1966 1 Green Bay vs Kansas City 1967 2 Green Bay vs Oakland 1968 3 NY Jets vs BAL Colts 1969 4 Kansas City vs Minnesota 1970 5 BAL Colts vs San Francisco 1971 6 Dallas vs Miami 1972 7 Miami vs Washington 1973 8 Miami vs Minnesota 1974 9 Pittsburgh vs Oakland 1975 10 Pittsburgh vs LA Rams 1976 11 Oakland vs Minnesota 1977 12 Dallas vs Denver 1978 13 Pittsburgh vs Dallas 1979 14 Pittsburgh vs Houston 1980 15 Oakland vs Philadelphia 1981 16 Dallas vs San Diego 1982 17 Miami vs Dallas 1983 18 LA Raiders vs Washington 1984 19 San Francisco vs Miami 1985 20 Chicago vs New England 1986 21 NY Giants vs Denver 1987 22 Washington vs Denver 1988 23 San Francisco vs Chicago 1989 24 San Francisco vs LA Rams 1990 25 NY Giants vs Buffalo 1991 26 Washington vs Buffalo 1992 27 Dallas vs Buffalo 1993 28 Dallas vs Buffalo 1994 29 San Francisco vs San Diego 1995 30 Dallas vs Pittsburgh 1996 31 Green Bay vs San Francisco 1997 32 Denver vs Green Bay 1998 33 Denver vs Minnesota 1999 34 Jacksonville vs Tampa Bay 2000 35 NY Giants vs Minnesota 2001 36 Saint Louis vs Pittsburgh 2002 37 Tampa Bay vs Oakland 2003 38 New England vs Indianapolis 2004 39 New England vs Philadelphia 2005 40 Pittsburgh vs Denver 2006 41 Indianapolis vs New England 2007 42 New England vs San Diego 2008 43 Pittsburgh vs Baltimore 2009 44 New Orleans vs Indianapolis 2010 45 Green Bay vs Pittsburgh Here's why the teams who made it in real life didn't here: 1) Didn't qualify for the playoffs: 1970 - Dallas 1974 - Minnesota 1975 - Dallas 1979 - Los Angeles Rams (actually relegated during this season, tough year) 2007 - New York Giants 2) In second division at the time: 1981 - Cincinnati 1981 - San Francisco 1982 - Washington 1988 - Cincinnati 1989 - Denver 1996 - New England 1998 - Atlanta 1999 - Saint Louis 1999 - Tennessee 2000 - Baltimore 2001 - New England 2003 - Carolina 2005 - Seattle 2006 - Chicago 2008 - Arizona Overall, no team gained or lost more than one title. Baltimore lost its only win, while Jacksonville is the only non-winner that became one. Cincinnati lost both of their appearances, while San Diego gained two. YEARS IN EACH DIVISON Which teams spent the most years in the first or second divisions? Ranked by the percentage of time in the first division. 2011 season is included, though it hasn't taken place yet. PCT 1st 2nd Playoffs 1 Miami Dolphins 76.19% 32 10 14 1 Pittsburgh Steelers 76.19% 32 10 16 3 Denver Broncos 73.81% 31 11 9 4 Dallas Cowboys 71.43% 30 12 18 5 Baltimore Ravens 68.75% 11 5 4 6 New England Patriots 66.67% 28 14 10 7 Minnesota Vikings 64.29% 27 15 11 8 Philadelphia Eagles 61.90% 26 16 12 8 San Francisco 49ers 61.90% 26 16 15 10 Oakland Raiders 59.52% 25 17 12 10 Saint Louis Rams 59.52% 25 17 7 12 Indianapolis Colts 54.76% 23 19 10 12 New York Giants 54.76% 23 19 6 14 Carolina Panthers 52.94% 9 8 2 15 Buffalo Bills 52.38% 22 20 7 16 Green Bay Packers 50.00% 21 21 9 16 Washington Redskins 50.00% 21 21 8 18 Tennessee Titans 47.62% 20 22 7 19 Jacksonville Jaguars 47.06% 8 9 3 20 Cleveland Browns 46.15% 18 21 3 21 Kansas City Chiefs 45.24% 19 23 7 22 San Diego Chargers 42.86% 18 24 7 23 Chicago Bears 40.48% 17 25 4 23 New York Jets 40.48% 17 25 3 25 Atlanta Falcons 35.71% 15 27 1 25 Cincinnati Bengals 35.71% 15 27 1 27 New Orleans Saints 30.95% 13 29 4 28 Seattle Seahawks 30.56% 11 25 2 29 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 27.78% 10 26 4 30 Detroit Lions 26.19% 11 31 2 31 Arizona Cardinals 19.05% 8 34 0 32 Houston Texans 0.00% 0 10 0 Yes, that's a total of zero playoff appearances for the Cardinals. I didn't increase the number of playoff spots for the strike-shortened 1982 season (which happened in real life). MOST CONSECUTIVE YEARS IN D1/D2 The longest lengths of time spent in division one (bold means a current streak): Years First Last Pittsburgh Steelers 19 1993 2011 San Francisco 49ers 18 1982 1999 Dallas Cowboys 17 1970 1986 Oakland Raiders 17 1971 1987 Denver Broncos 14 1997 2010 Miami Dolphins 14 1991 2004 Buffalo Bills 13 1989 2001 Minnesota Vikings 13 1989 2001 Pittsburgh Steelers 13 1973 1985 Baltimore Ravens 11 2001 2011 Miami Dolphins 11 1978 1988 Philadelphia Eagles 11 2001 2011 Washington Redskins 11 1970 1980 Kansas City Chiefs 10 1991 2000 Minnesota Vikings 10 1970 1979 New England Patriots 10 2002 2011 The longest lengths of time spent in division two: Years First Last Arizona Cardinals 20 1979 1998 Cincinnati Bengals 18 1992 2009 Washington Redskins 18 1994 2011 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 17 1981 1997 Detroit Lions 15 1997 2011 New York Giants 14 1972 1985 Seattle Seahawks 14 1992 2005 New Orleans Saints 13 1994 2006 Atlanta Falcons 12 1984 1995 Green Bay Packers 12 1974 1985 Kansas City Chiefs 12 1975 1986 New York Jets 12 1970 1981 Arizona Cardinals 10 2000 2009 Houston Texans 10 2002 2011 2011 DIVISION ALIGNMENTS Here's how two divisions would look for 2011. The number represents the current consecutive number of years in the division. NFL-1 Arizona 2 Atlanta 3 Baltimore 11 Chicago 1 Dallas 4 Green Bay 4 Indianapolis 9 Kansas City 1 Minnesota 2 New England 10 New Orleans 5 NY Giants 6 NY Jets 1 Philadelphia 11 Pittsburgh 19 San Diego 7 NFL-2 Buffalo 5 Carolina 1 Cincinnati 1 Cleveland 3 Denver 1 Detroit 15 Houston 10 Jacksonville 3 Miami 2 Oakland 8 San Francisco 7 Seattle 3 St. Louis 4 Tampa Bay 5 Tennessee 2 Washington 18 As you can see, in 2010 the promoted teams were Chicago, KC, and the Jets. Relegated were Carolina, Cincinnati, and Denver. The playoff teams were ATL-BAL-GB-NE-NO-PIT. YEAR BY YEAR CHART Orange = promoted Blue = relegated Green = playoffs The number above the year is the number of playoff teams. I know that teams from each conference play 75% of the games against one another, which makes it hard for this to work completely. But I still thought it was interesting to look at. Feel free to post or email any questions or comments.