Wednesday, May 05, 2010

MLS Home Field Advantage - Updated

Updated through the 2009 season. To make this more interesting, I've compiled the data for the English Premiership over the same years so we have something to compare the MLS data with. Below, you'll see how many points on average home and away teams receive in both leagues, as well as the number of goals.

Performance of Home Teams in Major League Soccer

Year Games W L D H-PPG A-PPG Diff
1996 160 84 42 34 1.79 1.00 0.79
1997 160 81 46 33 1.73 1.07 0.66
1998 192 101 58 33 1.75 1.08 0.67
1999 192 80 55 57 1.55 1.16 0.39
2000 192 105 53 34 1.82 1.01 0.81
2001 158 83 47 28 1.75 1.07 0.68
2002 140 77 41 22 1.81 1.04 0.77
2003 150 71 38 41 1.69 1.03 0.66
2004 150 72 32 46 1.75 0.95 0.80
2005 192 92 56 44 1.67 1.10 0.56
2006 192 92 44 56 1.73 0.98 0.75
2007 195 91 54 50 1.66 1.09 0.57
2008 210 106 47 57 1.79 0.94 0.84
2009 225 107 49 69 1.73 0.96 0.77








Total 2508 1242 662 604 1.73 1.03 0.69

The column furthest to the right is the key here, that's the home field advantage. Over 14 seasons and 2,508 games, home teams on average gain 0.69 more points than away teams. With the current 30 game season, that means that a team that played all its games at home would expect to gain an average of 21 points over a team that played an even schedule.

So far in 2010, the advantage has been 1.20 PPG, which is sure to come down.


Performance of Home Teams in the English Premier League

Year Games W L D H-PPG A-PPG Diff
1995/6 380 186 96 98 1.73 1.02 0.71
1996/7 380 162 99 119 1.59 1.09 0.50
1997/8 380 184 101 95 1.70 1.05 0.66
1998/9 380 169 96 115 1.64 1.06 0.58
1999/0 380 187 101 92 1.72 1.04 0.68
2000/1 380 184 95 101 1.72 1.02 0.70
2001/2 380 165 114 101 1.57 1.17 0.40
2002/3 380 187 103 90 1.71 1.05 0.66
2003/4 380 167 105 108 1.60 1.11 0.49
2004/5 380 173 97 110 1.66 1.06 0.60
2005/6 380 192 111 77 1.72 1.08 0.64
2006/7 380 182 100 98 1.69 1.05 0.65
2007/8 380 176 104 100 1.65 1.08 0.57
2008/9 380 173 110 97 1.62 1.12 0.50








Total 5320 2487 1432 1401 1.67 1.07 0.59

The EPL ends up with a slightly different number: a 0.59 PPG home field advantage. It makes sense for MLS to have a higher HFA due to having a more balanced league. Comparing the two leagues percentage wise, the home teams' W-L-D results are 50-26-24 for MLS and 47-27-26 for the EPL. Home teams win 62% of the points in MLS vs 58% in the EPL.


Number of Home & Away Goals in Major League Soccer

Year Games Gol GPG HG AG HGPG AGPG Diff
1996 160 539 3.37 321 218 2.01 1.36 0.64
1997 160 522 3.26 302 220 1.89 1.38 0.51
1998 192 685 3.57 391 294 2.04 1.53 0.51
1999 192 549 2.86 305 244 1.59 1.27 0.32
2000 192 612 3.19 351 261 1.83 1.36 0.47
2001 158 519 3.28 297 222 1.88 1.41 0.47
2002 140 421 3.01 246 175 1.76 1.25 0.51
2003 150 433 2.89 248 185 1.65 1.23 0.42
2004 150 392 2.61 234 158 1.56 1.05 0.51
2005 192 551 2.87 306 245 1.59 1.28 0.32
2006 192 503 2.62 293 210 1.53 1.09 0.43
2007 195 518 2.66 297 221 1.52 1.13 0.39
2008 210 591 2.81 355 236 1.69 1.12 0.57
2009 225 571 2.54 340 231 1.51 1.03 0.48









Total 2508 7406 2.95 4286 3120 1.71 1.24 0.46

Again, the far right number is the most important one. So in MLS, the home teams score an average of 0.46 more goals per game than the away teams.


Number of Home & Away Goals in the English Premier League

Year Games Gol GPG HG AG HGPG AGPG Diff
1995/6 380 988 2.60 580 408 1.53 1.07 0.45
1996/7 380 970 2.55 559 411 1.47 1.08 0.39
1997/8 380 1019 2.68 592 427 1.56 1.12 0.43
1998/9 380 959 2.52 553 406 1.46 1.07 0.39
1999/0 380 1060 2.79 635 425 1.67 1.12 0.55
2000/1 380 992 2.61 587 405 1.54 1.07 0.48
2001/2 380 1001 2.63 557 444 1.47 1.17 0.30
2002/3 380 1000 2.63 570 430 1.50 1.13 0.37
2003/4 380 1012 2.66 572 440 1.51 1.16 0.35
2004/5 380 975 2.57 570 405 1.50 1.07 0.43
2005/6 380 944 2.48 555 389 1.46 1.02 0.44
2006/7 380 931 2.45 552 379 1.45 1.00 0.46
2007/8 380 1002 2.64 581 421 1.53 1.11 0.42
2008/9 380 942 2.48 532 410 1.40 1.08 0.32









Total 5320 13795 2.59 7995 5800 1.50 1.09 0.41

A similar difference in the EPL at 0.41, despite a much lower goals per game average. Home teams have scored 57.9% of the goals in MLS vs 58.0% in the EPL.

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Comments on "MLS Home Field Advantage - Updated"

 

Blogger jim said ... (11:04 AM, April 09, 2008) : 

This is an interesting write up you have. The MLS is growing, with a new team this year, and probably more to come, I can see the MLS growing to be larger than the EPL. Granted everyone says that the MLS sucks compared to the EPL, that is usually just a "culture" thing. Lots of people wish they had the english "culture" from London and the area.

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Blogger Alex Larsen said ... (6:36 AM, May 05, 2010) : 

It also makes more sense that the home teams have more of an advantage in the MLS considering how much further the teams have to travel in the United States than England.

 

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