Thursday, September 17, 2009

2009 MLS Expansion Draft Preview #2

Time to revisit my projections of who will be protected and who will be left available. What's changed in the past month? For last month's review, click here.

A few days ago I posted about when players graduate from Generation Adidas status, which is highly relevant to this topic. Check out that post for further info. As of right now, I'm projecting nine players to graduate after the season: Alston, Beltran, Frei, Gonzalez, Hall, Nyarko, Wallace, Zakuani, and Zayner.


Protected Available Exempt
Mike Banner C.J. Brown Baggio Husidic
Cuauhtemoc Blanco Calen Carr
Jon Busch Stefan Dimitrov
Wilman Conde Andrew Dykstra
Patrick Nyarko Peter Lowry
Marco Pappa Justin Mapp
Logan Pause Brian McBride
Dasan Robinson David Myrie
Gonzalo Segares Brandon Prideaux
John Thorrington Chris Rolfe
Tim Ward Austin Washington

Daniel Woolard

Changes: Blanco in, Rolfe out.

It now appears that Blanco will be returning to the team. With Rolfe leaving, it makes sense for Blanco to be protected and Rolfe not to be. McBride is still uncertain about his plans for next year. The only possible change I can see at this point would be Mapp, but his high salary is a factor. He could be on there instead of say, Thorrington.


Protected Available Exempt
Jonathan Bornstein Chukwudi Chijindu
Justin Braun Jon Conway
Maykel Galindo Yamith Cuesta
Sacha Kljestan Jim Curtin
Michael Lahoud Maicon Santos
Eduardo Lillingston Jorge Flores
Jesse Marsch Kevin Harmse
Paulo Nagamura Ante Jazic
Shavar Thomas Dan Kennedy
Zach Thornton Gerson Mayen
Mariano Trujillo Jesus Padilla

Lance Parker

Ante Razov

Marcelo Saragosa

Bojan Stepanovic

Claudio Suarez

Carey Talley

Sasha Victorine

Cesar Zamora

Changes: Lillingston in, Burling out.

Still the most difficult team to project. Burling was traded to SJ, so I guess Preki was no longer high on him. This after being protected last season. Makes me wonder about Braun's status, who was also protected last year.

Also, I read that Trujillo holds a green card, so he doesn't count as an international player. That means last month I only had two internationals on my projection, so that has to change. Hence the inclusion of Lillingston. Santos seems like he could take that place, but he's here on loan.

You'd think that U20 players Flores and Mayen would be likely candidates. However, the former wasn't protected last year, and they've both got little playing time. Let's see if the U20 World Cup raises their profiles.


Protected Available Exempt
Mehdi Ballouchy Julien Baudet Ciaran O'Brien
Conor Casey Preston Burpo Rob Valentino
Colin Clark Steward Ceus
Omar Cummings Greg Dalby
Cory Gibbs Facundo Diz
Jordan Harvey Ty Harden
Nick LaBrocca Michael Holody
Pablo Mastroeni Kosuke Kimura
Drew Moor Pat Noonan
Matt Pickens Scott Palguta
Jamie Smith Jacob Peterson

Ross Schunk

Changes: Moor in, Ihemelu out.

Smith is out for the year and could be overtaken by fellow international players Baudet or Kimura. The other guy on shaky ground is Gibbs. He's also hurt, and depending on how the team plays without him he might fall off the list (perhaps in favor of Peterson).


Protected Available Exempt
G. Barros Schelotto Kevin Burns
Eric Brunner Cory Elenio
Brian Carroll Jason Garey
Emmanuel Ekpo Eddie Gaven
Frankie Hejduk Alex Grendi
William Hesmer Andy Gruenebaum
Chad Marshall Andy Iro
Alejandro Moreno
Steven Lenhart
Danny O'Rourke
Adam Moffat
Gino Padula
Stanley Nyazamba
Robbie Rogers Duncan Oughton

Emilio Renteria

Jed Zayner

Changes: Moreno in, Zayner out.

Will both Hejduk and Zayner be protected, or just one? I think putting Zayner on the list may have been a little too clever on my part. I still don't think Moreno is a lock, but he seems more likely to be there than Zayner. I think it might be smart to protect Zayner instead of Hejduk, but I don't know if they'll take that chance.


Protected Available Exempt
Jair Benitez
Ray Burse
Eric Avila
Jeff Cunningham Marvin Chavez
Bruno Guarda
Kyle Davies Daniel Hernandez Josh Lambo
David Ferreira Steve Purdy Peri Marosevic
Atiba Harris Andre Rocha Brek Shea
Ugo Ihemelu Dario Sala Anthony Wallace
George John Daniel Torres
Dax McCarty Blake Wagner
Heath Pearce

Pablo Ricchetti

Dave van den Bergh

Changes: Ihemelu/Pearce in, Moor/Sala out.

Pearce is obviously going to be protected, the question is who does he bump off? I picked Sala. There are various reasons to remove other players, such as the fact that they almost traded McCarty before the season. I just feel like Sala would be the least likely to be taken. Too bad he has a green card, or he could take one of the international places (Benitez/Ferreira/Ricchetti).


Protected Available Exempt
Fred Ely Allen
Dejan Jakovic Brandon Barklage
Julius James Marc Burch
Jaime Moreno John DiRaimondo
Bryan Namoff Luciano Emilio

Chris Pontius Christian Gomez
Santino Quaranta David Habarugira
Clyde Simms Andrew Jacobson
Danny Szetela Greg Janicki
Rodney Wallace Avery John
Josh Wicks Thabiso Khumalo

Milos Kocic

Devon McTavish

Ange N'Silu

Ben Olsen

Tiyiselani Shipalane

Lawson Vaughn

Changes: Fred in, Emilio out.

Emilio received his green card, which means that they need another international besides James and Jakovic. I know Fred's not playing well, but it's hard to see one of Habarugira/John/Khumalo/N'Silu/Shipalane ahead of him at this point. Unless Emilio has a no-trade clause, it doesn't make sense to protect him at that salary. I could also see Burch instead of Moreno, but I don't know if they would leave him unprotected despite his age and salary.


Protected Available Exempt
Corey Ashe Wade Barrett Danny Cruz
Bobby Boswell Mike Chabala
Geoff Cameron Ryan Cochrane
Brian Ching Tyler Deric
Ricardo Clark Tally Hall
Brad Davis John Michael Hayden
Andrew Hainault Richard Mulrooney
Stuart Holden Pat Onstad
Luis Angel Landin Eddie Robinson
Brian Mullan Abe Thompson
Dominic Oduro Erik Ustruck

Craig Waibel

Cam Weaver

Changes: Ashe in, Kamara out.

The trade opened up a spot. Robinson or Weaver would be the other main candidates to fill it.


Protected Available Exempt
Davy Arnaud Adam Cristman Roger Espinoza
Matt Besler Herculez Gomez Chance Myers
Jimmy Conrad Kevin Hartman

Michael Harrington
Aaron Hohlbein

Zoltan Hercegfalvi
Michael Kraus

Santiago Hirsig
Eric Kronberg

Jack Jewsbury
Jonathan Leaters

Kei Kamara
Matt Marquess

Claudio Lopez
Rauwshan McKenzie

Lance Watson
Kurt Morsink

Josh Wolff Boris Pardo

Kevin Souter

Graham Zusi

Changes: Kamara/Zoltan in, Espinoza/Souter out.

I no longer expect Espinoza to graduate from GA status. That's extremely unlikely now, and good news for KC. Even though he's out of contract, Kamara might still be protected in the hopes of working out a deal. Meanwhile, Zoltan and Souter are competing for the final international spot.


Protected Available Exempt
David Beckham Gregg Berhalter Tristan Bowen
Chris Birchall Alan Gordon
Edson Buddle Leonard Griffin
A.J. DeLaGarza Bryan Jordan
Landon Donovan Jovan Kirovski
Todd Dunivant Chris Klein
Alecko Eskandarian Dema Kovalenko
Sean Franklin Eddie Lewis
Omar Gonzalez Yohance Marshall
Mike Magee Stefani Miglioranzi
Donovan Ricketts Kyle Patterson

Tony Sanneh

Josh Saunders

Julian Valentin

Changes: none.

Nothing to suggest anything different in the past month.


Protected Available Exempt
Kevin Alston Chris Albright Nico Colaluca
Darrius Barnes Stephane Assengue Amaechi Igwe
Jay Heaps Gabriel Badilla
Shalrie Joseph Mauricio Castro
Jeff Larentowicz Kheli Dube
Kenny Mansally Edgaras Jankauskas
Sainey Nyassi Brad Knighton
Emmanuel Osei Pat Phelan
Steve Ralston Bobby Shuttleworth
Matt Reis Wells Thompson
Taylor Twellman Chris Tierney

Michael Videira

Changes: None.

I know Larentowicz is out of contract, but that didn't stop them from protecting Parkhurst a year ago. Dube could find a spot on the list, but who would he replace?


Protected Available Exempt
Juan Pablo Angel Danleigh Borman
Albert Celades Andrew Boyens
Danny Cepero Bouna Coundoul
Kevin Goldthwaite Walter Garcia
Jeremy Hall Carlos Johnson
Macoumba Kandji Leo Krupnik
Ernst Oebster Carlos Mendes
Dane Richards Matthew Mbuta
Luke Sassano Mike Petke
Seth Stammler Jorge Rojas
Sinisa Ubiparipovic John Wolyniec

Nick Zimmerman

Changes: Ubiparipovic in, Zimmerman out.

Hall should graduate, but if they didn't play him any more for the last few games, there's a chance he wouldn't. Not that they're going to lose anyone good, but they could have an extra senior roster spot next year.


Protected Available Exempt
Kyle Beckerman Jean Alexandre Alex Nimo
Tony Beltran Raphael Cox Chris Seitz
Nat Borchers Rachid El Khalifi
Pablo Campos Nelson Gonzalez
Fabian Espindola Ned Grabavoy
Robbie Findley David Horst
Will Johnson Clint Mathis
Javier Morales Yura Movsisyan
Jamison Olave Tino Nunez
Nick Rimando Kyle Reynish
Chris Wingert Robbie Russell

Andy Williams

Changes: Espindola in, Gonzalez out.

It just seems more likely that Espindola would be protected. I don't see either player being taken so it doesn't matter much. The other ten seem set in stone.


Protected Available Exempt
Arturo Alvarez Bobby Burling
Quincy Amarikwa Ramiro Corrales
Joe Cannon Simon Elliott
Bobby Convey Mike Graczyk
Cornell Glen Darren Huckerby
Jason Hernandez Chris Leitch
Ryan Johnson Aaron Pitchkolan
Andre Luiz Antonio Ribeiro
Brandon McDonald Jamil Roberts
Shea Salinas Andrew Weber
Ramon Sanchez Chris Wondolowski

Michael Zaher

Changes: none.

Not much to see here. There's a chance Burling or Wondo could play their way on the list.


Protected Available Exempt
Osvaldo Alonso Terry Boss
Brad Evans Evan Brown
Leo Gonzalez Chris Eylander
Jhon Kennedy Hurtado Michael Fucito
Patrick Ianni
Taylor Graham
Nate Jaqua
Stephen King
Kasey Keller
Roger Levesque

Freddie Ljungberg
Sebastien Le Toux

Fredy Montero
Tyrone Marshall

James Riley Lamar Neagle

Steve Zakuani Sanna Nyassi

Zach Scott

Nathan Sturgis

Peter Vagenas

Tyson Wahl

Changes: Ianni/Keller in, Le Toux/Nyassi out.

I guess I don't see them risking Keller despite his age and salary; they don't want another Jason Kreis situation. I'm now thinking that there's a good chance he would have a no-trade clause which would prevent him from being exposed in the first place.

I also decided that Ianni is a much more important player to the team than Nyassi (who now seems unlikely to be protected), even if he's not that great. Le Toux may be the odd man out, though some Seattle fans have suggested that Jaqua will be unprotected instead. You see, Jaqua makes about 200k, or twice as much as Le Toux. We'll see.


Protected Available Exempt
Nana Attakora Jim Brennan Fuad Ibrahim
Chad Barrett Brian Edwards
Sam Cronin Lesly Fellinga
Julian de Guzman Gabe Gala
Dwayne De Rosario Nick Garcia
Stefan Frei Ali Gerba
Emmanuel Gomez Amado Guevara
Amadou Sanyang Carl Robinson
Adrian Serioux Pablo Vitti
O'Brian White

Marvell Wynne

Changes: Attakora/de Guzman/Gomez/Sanyang in, Brennan/Garcia/Gerba/Robinson out.

I just can't see Robinson protected with the signing of DeGuzman. The youth are simply more valuable and desirable than the older players.


Comments on "2009 MLS Expansion Draft Preview #2"


Anonymous Frank said ... (11:34 AM, September 18, 2009) : 

I though the Crew got rid of Nyazamba? Doesn't matter I guess. I'm not sure that Ekpo and Padula will be protected (but based on foreign player rules we might not have a choice). Also, Hejduk might not be protected as he is getting old and it might be more important to keep some of the younger players that did get more minutes (Zayner).


Anonymous Anonymous said ... (9:50 PM, September 18, 2009) : 

Great work on all this for the scary one.

Nyazamba was released a month or two ago.

We just re-signed for Dev. GK Kenny Schoeni to fill his roster spot.

For me, Zayner will be protected for sure. I'd leave Moreno available. And if Eddie Gaven keeps scoring big goals (2 game winners the last two weeks) I think he is protected.

I also might take a chance on leaving the Dude available, and hope his age and salary would ensure he doesn't get picked. Man, I'd hate to lose the Dude.


Blogger Michael W. said ... (3:29 AM, October 27, 2009) : 

Great, great post. Impeccable research on this, Scary.

I've started a secondary debate over on my blog about how the 2009 draft might affect the Sounders, who benefited greatly from the 2008 draft:

Philadelphia Union 2009 Expansion Draft

I'd love to get your thoughts on it!


Mike from Rally Blues


Anonymous Anonymous said ... (3:23 PM, November 13, 2009) : 

Nice research. A question: in all cases it looks like you are protecting the DP. I thought the DP didn't have to be protected. Is this not so?


Blogger scaryice said ... (4:58 AM, November 14, 2009) : 

You're correct, DPs don't have to be protected (only if they hav a no trade clause). When I wrote this, I assumed they all would be. I'll revisit my projections after the MLS Cup.


post a comment