Monday, November 01, 2010

MLS Playoffs First Leg Results - Who Advances?

From 2003-09, a total of 18/28 higher seeded teams have advanced in the MLS playoff quarterfinals. Here's how each series ended up based on the first leg result:

upper lower
lower win by 2 2 1
lower win by 1 6 5
draw 6 3
upper win by 1 1 1
upper win by 2 3

18 10

This year, Colorado & Dallas are in the "lower win by 1" category, while Los Angeles & New York are in the "upper win by 1" group. There have only been 5 away wins by higher seeded teams in 28 opportunities, so those were rare results. The only lower seeded team to advance after losing the opener was 2006 Colorado.

Even though the Rapids and FCD won, the history shows that a slight majority of the teams in their position (6/11) ended up losing the series. So the odds seem pretty good that at least one of the two will fail to hold their advantage.


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