MLS: Number of Meaningless Games per Season (Updated)

(Edited 2010-12-21 with final numbers, and a list of the games) The 2010 playoff berths are pretty much decided at this point. Seven of the eight teams are known, and it would take another collapse by the Colorado Rapids for them to miss out (and let Kansas City sneak in). It's unusual to see things nearly wrapped up with a few weekends left. There's less parity this season, and we're now in a situation where only half the teams in the league make the playoffs, the smallest percentage in league history (I'm not complaining, I wish it was even less). How many games will actually be meaningless? The answer is very few. I've defined meaningless as any game which has no impact on the playoffs or the Supporters' Shield. So even though the playoff teams are almost decided, seeding still comes into play which makes plenty of games meaningful. There are only five games this season which will definitely lack any meaning. Two of them occurred this past weekend: CHV vs TOR and HOU vs NE. Only three of the remaining 18 are in that category as well. We could possibly see a couple more added on the final weekend, but I doubt more than eight total. That's still a high for the seasons I've looked at. Here's some numbers for recent seasons: Number of Meaningless Games per Season Games Total PCT 2010 6 240 2.50% 2009 0 225 0.00% 2008 3 210 1.43% 2007 2 195 1.03% 2006 3 192 1.56% 2005 3 192 1.56% 2004 0 150 0.00% 2003 2 150 1.33% 2002 0 140 0.00% Total 19 1,694 1.12% Of course, this can't measure exactly how meaningful a game is. In my opinion, having fewer teams make the playoffs means that the games which are meaningful are worth more. List of Games 2010-10-09 CHV vs TOR 2010-10-10 HOU vs NE 2010-10-16 CHI vs DC 2010-10-23 DC vs TOR 2010-10-23 CHV vs CHI 2010-10-24 CLB vs PHI 2008-10-25 SJ vs TOR 2008-10-25 CHV vs HOU 2008-10-26 LA vs DAL 2007-10-20 TOR vs NE 2007-10-20 DC vs CLB 2006-10-14 LA vs DAL 2006-10-15 DC vs CHI 2006-10-15 CHV vs RSL 2005-10-08 SJ vs RSL 2005-10-15 NE vs CHI 2005-10-15 DC vs CLB 2003-10-25 SJ vs LA 2003-10-26 CLB vs CHI

Rapids 10th Best MLS Champions

I can't say that they're deserving champions (no team that finishes 7th can be, IMO). But they certainly don't belong in the same category as last year's RSL team. In fact, they rank as the third best champions of the past seven years: GP W L D Pts PPG GF GA GD GFA GAA GDA OFF DEF GD 1 2008 Columbus 30 17 7 6 57 1.900 50 36 14 1.667 1.200 0.467 6 8 7 2 1999 DC United 32 17 6 9 60 1.875 65 43 22 2.031 1.344 0.688 2 10 2 3 1997 DC United 32 17 7 8 59 1.844 70 53 17 2.188 1.656 0.531 1 14 5 4 2002 Los Angeles 28 16 9 3 51 1.821 44 33 11 1.571 1.179 0.393 7 7 9 5 2000 Kansas City 32 16 7 9 57 1.781 47 29 18 1.469 0.906 0.563 9 2 4 6 1998 Chicago 32 18 11 3 57 1.781 62 45 17 1.938 1.406 0.531 3 12 5 7 2007 Houston 30 15 8 7 52 1.733 43 23 20 1.433 0.767 0.667 11 1 3 8 2001 San Jose 26 13 7 6 45 1.731 47 29 18 1.808 1.115 0.692 5 4 1 9 2003 San Jose 30 14 7 9 51 1.700 45 35 10 1.500 1.167 0.333 8 5 10 10 2010 Colorado 30 12 8 10 46 1.533 44 32 12 1.467 1.067 0.400 10 3 8 11 1996 DC United 32 15 13 4 49 1.531 62 56 6 1.938 1.750 0.188 3 15 12 12 2006 Houston 32 11 8 13 46 1.438 44 40 4 1.375 1.250 0.125 14 9 13 13 2005 Los Angeles 32 13 13 6 45 1.406 44 45 -1 1.375 1.406 -0.031 14 12 15 14 2004 DC United 30 11 10 9 42 1.400 43 42 1 1.433 1.400 0.033 11 11 14 15 2009 Real Salt Lake 30 11 12 7 40 1.333 43 35 8 1.433 1.167 0.267 11 5 11

What Best Predicts a First Round MLS Playoff Winner?

Can you name one thing that all four MLS playoff quarterfinal winners had in common this past season? They all played fewer games than the teams that they defeated: SJ 31 vs 34 NY COL 32 vs 42 CLB LA 34 vs 42 SEA DAL 31 vs 38 RSL Once again, the curse of the CONCACAF Champions League comes into play. Only one MLS team which has made the group stage has won a playoff series (Houston 2009) in six tries. This year, Columbus, Real Salt Lake, and Seattle all are now included in that 1-5 record. I want to talk a bit more about what are the best predictors of a team advancing. I looked at all 32 quarterfinal matchups since the current two-leg aggregate format has been in place (2003), and I compared each team in a variety of statistics. It turns out that the best predictor of the ones I looked at is actually fewer games played, just beating out goal difference. Won Lost Even PCT 18 7 7 0.672 fewer games 21 11 0.656 goal difference 19 12 1 0.609 less experienced coach 19 13 0.594 momentum 19 13 0.594 higher seed 17 11 4 0.594 top goalscorer 18 13 1 0.578 goals for 18 14 0.563 home record 18 14 0.563 older team 17 15 0.531 away record 17 15 0.531 younger coach 12 10 10 0.531 won season series 16 13 3 0.547 goals against 16 16 0.500 2 year record 14 18 0.438 3 year record 13 19 0.406 coach has better all time record All records used were regular season only, and teams who didn't have a 2 or 3 year record, I used the years they had. For results from 1996-9 (such as with the coach records), shootouts were counted as draws. PPG was used for all comparisons. Momentum was a comparison of the final 5 regular season games. For this table, each "even" listing is counted like it's usually done in sports: half a win and half a loss. If you have any other ideas to look at, please comment below.

MLS Playoffs First Leg Results - Who Advances?

From 2003-09, a total of 18/28 higher seeded teams have advanced in the MLS playoff quarterfinals. Here's how each series ended up based on the first leg result: upper lower lower win by 2 2 1 lower win by 1 6 5 draw 6 3 upper win by 1 1 1 upper win by 2 3 18 10 This year, Colorado & Dallas are in the "lower win by 1" category, while Los Angeles & New York are in the "upper win by 1" group. There have only been 5 away wins by higher seeded teams in 28 opportunities, so those were rare results. The only lower seeded team to advance after losing the opener was 2006 Colorado. Even though the Rapids and FCD won, the history shows that a slight majority of the teams in their position (6/11) ended up losing the series. So the odds seem pretty good that at least one of the two will fail to hold their advantage.

"Playoff Teams Only" Table

The records of each playoff team in 2010, only considering games against one another: GP W L D Pts GF GA GD 1 Los Angeles 14 9 4 1 28 22 13 9 2 Real Salt Lake 14 5 3 6 21 15 10 5 3 New York 14 5 6 3 18 14 17 -3 4 Colorado 14 4 5 5 17 16 18 -2 5 Seattle 14 4 5 5 17 15 17 -2 6 San Jose 14 4 5 5 17 11 13 -2 7 Columbus 14 4 5 5 17 15 19 -4 8 Dallas 14 2 4 8 14 16 17 -1 Makes LA look really good, no? Due to their recent lack of outstanding play, they seem to be getting less respect than RSL in playoff predictions. Bruce Arena really has done quite a good job with the Galaxy; they have the 7th best record over two seasons for 2009-2010. Meanwhile, all those draws don't keep FC Dallas out of the bottom spot. Only 2 wins in 14 tries against their playoff competition. SJ seems to have problems scoring against the top teams. They were shut out 8 times in these 14 games.

Historic Playoff Hypotheticals

There have been countless arguments over the MLS playoff system and I'm not going to revisit that today. Rather, I thought I would take a look at MLS history and see just how things would've changed if the league's playoffs were a bit more exclusive. How much change would there actually be if the number of playoff teams was reduced by half? Here's what I did. I reduced the number of teams in the playoffs to 4 instead of 8 for every season. I used the rules for each year (so top 2 in each conference except 2000-02), and I assumed that the team which advanced the furthest in the playoffs in real life would win each series. If two teams both exited in the same round, then I assumed the one with a better regular season record would advance. I also did this for the NBA and NHL, which can be seen below for comparison. Here's how the MLS Cups look in real life, and hypothetically with half the playoff teams (champions are listed first). Only changed years are listed under hypothetical: Real Life Hypothetical 1996 DC vs LA 1997 DC vs COL DC vs KC 1998 CHI vs DC 1999 DC vs LA 2000 KC vs CHI 2001 SJ vs LA LA vs MIA 2002 LA vs NE 2003 SJ vs CHI 2004 DC vs KC 2005 LA vs NE NE vs SJ 2006 HOU vs NE 2007 HOU vs NE 2008 CLB vs NY CLB vs HOU 2009 RSL vs LA LA vs CHI 5/14 years would be different, and 3/14 champions: 1997 - Runner up Colorado wouldn't have qualified, so Kansas City replaces them. KC/LA were the top two West seeds, and both lost their first round series. 2001 - Champion San Jose finished 5th overall, losing a tiebreaker with Columbus. As the furthest advancing team, Los Angeles are picked over Miami. 2005 - Champion LA would've missed the playoffs. San Jose vs Dallas would've been a playoff matchup, so SJ replaces LA in the title game with NE picked to win. 2008 - Runner up New York out of the playoffs. Houston over Chivas (both first round losers) for an MLS Cup spot. 2009 - Champion Real Salt Lake misses the playoffs. Chicago over CLB to advance and lose in the final. Ultimately, LA/NE end up with an extra championship, while RSL/SJ lose one. What about playoff berths? Amazingly, with the number of spots halved, the Rapids would still be looking for their first ever playoff appearance. Meanwhile, NY would only have one (2000): Real Hyp CHI 11 6 CHV 4 2 CLB 9 6 COL 9 0 DAL 10 5 DC 9 8 HOU 4 4 KC 9 4 LA 11 8 MIA 3 1 NE 10 5 NY 10 1 PHI 0 0 RSL 2 0 SEA 1 0 SJ 6 3 TB 4 3 TOR 0 0 How does this compare with other leagues? I originally investigated this subject because of the divisional realignment in MLB. There was talk before the season about the AL East and how three of the league's strongest teams (Rays, Red Sox, Yankees) were only competing for two playoff spots due to playing in the same division. A few weeks ago, Jeff Passan of Yahoo Sports had a great article where he pushed for something I've long thought to be a better system: Just get rid of divisions altogether and take the top four teams by record. That means geography would have nothing to do with a team's playoff chances. By the way, that's a great reason for MLS to go to a single table besides the tradition argument. Anyway, I was curious how different the World Series would look each year if the strange divisions of the pre-wild card era (Atlanta/Cincinnati in the West, really?) were still in existence. I started looking into it, but it gets a bit messy since you have to deal with the 1998 expansion and assume some things. I decided to leave it out of this post as a result, and also the NFL because I don't know how you could halve the teams there (division winners only?). Also, both of those leagues don't have a lot of complaints about too many teams involved, unlike the NBA/NHL. Those two are much more comparable to MLS, so let's get to that. How would their champions/runners up look with only half the playoffs? I started with the first years both went to the current 16 team fields. First, the NHL: Real Life Hypothetical 1980 NYI vs PHI 1981 NYI vs MIN NYI vs BUF 1982 NYI vs VAN 1983 NYI vs EDM 1984 EDM vs NYI 1985 EDM vs PHI 1986 MON vs CAL 1987 EDM vs PHI 1988 EDM vs BOS 1989 CAL vs MON 1990 EDM vs BOS 1991 PIT vs MIN PIT vs LA 1992 PIT vs CHI CHI vs BOS 1993 MON vs LA PIT vs VAN 1994 NYR vs VAN NYR vs TOR 1995 NJ vs DET DET vs PHI 1996 COL vs FLO 1997 DET vs PHI 1998 DET vs WAS 1999 DAL vs BUF DAL vs TOR 2000 NJ vs DAL 2001 COL vs NJ 2002 DET vs CAR 2003 NJ vs ANA NJ vs DAL 2004 TB vs CAL TB vs SJ 2006 CAR vs EDM CAR vs DET 2007 ANA vs OTT 2008 DET vs PIT 2009 PIT vs DET 10/29 years with a different game, 3/29 with a different champion (1992, 1993, 1995). Chicago/Detroit get an extra title, while Montreal/New Jersey each lose one. The NBA: Real Life Hypothetical 1984 BOS vs LAL 1985 LAL vs BOS 1986 BOS vs HOU 1987 LAL vs BOS 1988 LAL vs DET 1989 DET vs LAL 1990 DET vs POR 1991 CHI vs LAL 1992 CHI vs POR 1993 CHI vs PHO 1994 HOU vs NY 1995 HOU vs ORL ORL vs SA 1996 CHI vs SEA 1997 CHI vs UTA 1998 CHI vs UTA 1999 SA vs NY SA vs IND 2000 LAL vs IND 2001 LAL vs PHI 2002 LAL vs NJ 2003 SA vs NJ 2004 DET vs LAL 2005 SA vs DET 2006 MIA vs DAL 2007 SA vs CLE 2008 BOS vs LAL 2009 LAL vs ORL 2/26 years were changed, that's it. Only one champion is different. It makes you wonder why they insist on keeping the playoffs so large. Orlando takes the 1995 title away from Houston (the only non-top 4 seed to win in these years). At first, I thought that MLS didn't have much change. But it turns out that compared to the NHL and especially the NBA, it is quite a bit. Diff Champs MLS 36% 21% NHL 34% 10% NBA 8% 4% First column = number of years with a difference in the title game if the league had half the playoff teams. Second column = number of years with a different champion. I don't think this post covers new ground, because we all know that the MLS playoff system doesn't do enough to reward strong regular seasons. We also know that best of 7 series lead to better teams winning more often. My main goal here was just to see what exactly would've changed.

Most League Games, No Playoff Appearances

I've already looked into the list of players who've played the most games without appearing in an MLS Cup (link). But what about those who have never even played in a single playoff game? There have been 1,369 players in MLS history (who have played a competitive game for an MLS team). Of those, 677 have appeared in a playoff game, while 692 have not. I haven't figured this out, but I'd be willing to bet that this is the first time that first number is lower than the second. Most Regular Season Games Played Without Playing in an Playoff Game (includes games through 2009 season) 1 Ballouchy, Mehdi 102 2 Brennan, Jim 83 3 Akwari, Nelson 78 4 Pitchkolan, Aaron 77 5 Robinson, Carl 74 6 Sawatzky, Darren 69 7 Johnson, Ryan 68 8 Glinton, Gavin 67 9 Cummings, Omar 65 9 Curtis, Ali 65 11 Miglioranzi, Stefani 63 12 Casey, Conor 62 13 LaBrocca, Nick 61 13 Conteh, Abdul Thompson 61 13 Roberts, Troy 61 16 Coundoul, Bouna 60 17 Dichio, Danny 59 18 Jair 57 19 Countess, D.J. 54 20 Wondolowski, Chris 53 21 Gibbs, Cory 50 21 Bliss, Brian 50 21 Figueroa, Vicente 50 24 Ward, Tim 49 24 Bartlett, Shaun 49 24 Rocha, Andre 49 Finally, something Mehdi Ballouchy can succeed at. The Rapids are currently in a three year playoff drought, so it's understandable why they make up a good part of the list. Speaking of no playoffss, there's also several Toronto FC players here. It's a shame Tim Ward and for the Fire that he was hurt this past postseason. They could've used him. Ward also was dropped late in the season by the 2005 Metrostars. That's when Bob Bradley was fired and Mo Johnston took over with three games left in the regular season, and Mo apparently favored Jason Hernandez. So he's probably been the most unlucky player in the top 25. Yes, Chris Wondolowski never got into a playoff match with the Dynamo despite winning two titles. Stefani Miglioranzi also is a former champion with the 2008 Crew. And I almost forgot, Troy Roberts won a title on the 2005 Galaxy.

Least Deserving Champions in 60 Years

Real Salt Lake is the first American sports team to win a championship with a losing record in 60 years. In the history of the major four leagues (MLB, NBA, NFL, NHL), and also MLS and the NASL, only two teams have accomplished that. Both were in the NHL: 1949 Toronto Maple Leafs (22-25-13) 1938 Chicago Black Hawks (14-25-9)

MLS Playoffs: Yellow Card Rule Change

This was brought to my attention in the play-by-play thread on Bigsoccer: Did you notice that MLS has changed its rules for playoff yellow card suspensions? I'm not sure if this was put into place this year or last year, but it definitely was not the case as of 2007. Two yellow cards in consecutive games mean a suspension. That's not the change. The change is that a player cannot be suspended for the MLS Cup for yellow cards. So if Jamison Olave, who got a yellow at Crew Stadium, gets another yellow in Chicago and RSL wins, then he would be eligible for the title game. If you remember, Ricardo Clark missed the 2006 MLS Cup final because of the old rule. I think the change must be new, because that link above to the MLSnet discipline page has conflicting language on the subject - look at "playoff caution accumulation" and then the 5th paragraph under "2009 MLS Cup Playoffs Guidelines." However, when you check out the 2009 Playoff Guide (PDF), it confirms the change. Also, about last night's game: Pat Phelan came close to equalizing for the Revolution, but it shouldn't be a surprise that NE couldn't break the aggregate tie or come back once they went behind. Their attacking depth was non-existent, especially once Mauricio Castro went down. They started the game with zero forwards on the bench; the six field player subs were Igwe, Tierney, Phelan, Thompson, Castro, and Colaluca. I know Stephane Assengue is a player for the future, but surely they might've named him to the bench in case they needed a goal. It's not good to be relying on Phelan as your last ditch sub in that situation. Of course, even if the Revs had attacking depth, that doesn't mean Nicol would use it - remember Ricardo Phillips and Jose Manuel Abundis?

Home/Away Records, Rookies, and CLB/RSL

1) I've updated the home/away records for each MLS team in each season through 2009: Check them out here. 2) If Omar Gonzalez wins the Rookie of the Year award, he'll be the youngest winner ever. He was 20.72 years of age as of July 1st. The current record-holder is Carlos Bocanegra in 2000, at 21.10 years old. All three of this year's nominees (Gonzalez, Frei, Pontius) started and played 90 minutes on opening day. That means it is now 10/14 seasons where the winner got time in his team's opening game, and 28/42 nominees. 3) Tonight is the conclusion of the CLB-RSL series. If you clicked the link above, you saw the RSL had the league's best home record and second worst away record this season. That's one reason why so many people still feel like the Crew should still win this series. It's interesting how little these teams have changed from a year ago. Of the 27 players who saw action in game one, only Crew starters Eric Brunner and Emilio Renteria weren't with the same team in last year's playoffs. This is the moment for Robert Warzycha. The season long rotation of Guillermo Barros Schelotto all comes to a head tonight. There's been injuries, concerns about playing on turf, balancing league and CONCACAF play, and most notably the benching Saturday for defensive reasons. Schelotto definitely should be fully healthy and ready to go. The balancing act has worked out well so far, so it's kind of unfair to base it all on one game. But that's the way the MLS playoff system works, and you can imagine the reaction if the Crew are eliminated tonight. If it works, Warzycha could come out looking like Alex Ferguson. If not, it's more like when Greg Andrulis started Dante Washington over Edson Buddle and Jeff Cunningham. Remember that?

Home Field Dis-Advantage

A lot has been made this year over the home struggles of the Chicago Fire and the Los Angeles Galaxy. The Fire are doing much better away (1.64 PPG) than at home (1.29 PPG). The Galaxy were in that same boat, but they've won their last two home games and are now sporting equal marks (1.57 PPG) home and away. The Wizards are also close to being equal (home = 4-5-4, away = 4-6-4). What the Fire and Galaxy are doing is rare historically in Major League Soccer. I've covered home field advantage before; the number is around 0.67 PPG for all of MLS history. So for the Fire to have a -0.35, that's on pace for the second lowest mark in league history. In fact, only nine of the 149 team seasons from 1996-2008 have seen a team's away record be equal to or better than their home record. Those teams are: Home Away Diff 1999 New York 0.625 0.625 0.000 1998 Tampa Bay 1.188 1.250 -0.063 2003 San Jose 1.667 1.733 -0.067 1997 San Jose 1.063 1.188 -0.125 1999 Tampa Bay 1.125 1.313 -0.188 1998 Los Angeles 2.063 2.313 -0.250 1999 DC United 1.750 2.000 -0.250 2003 New York 1.267 1.533 -0.267 2002 New York 1.000 1.500 -0.500 A mix of teams good and bad. There are two MLS Cup winners in the group, though both excelled in both categories (like 2009 LA) rather than being poor at home (2009 CHI). As always, I'm counting shootouts as draws. How have these nine teams done in the playoffs? Would you expect them to do better on the road there as well? First, four of them failed to qualify. Of the other five, the results are as follows: LA 1998. Easily disposed of the Dallas Burn in round one, winning home and away. They lost to Chicago after a 0:1 home loss and a 1:1 away draw (shootout loss). So they did slightly better away. TB 1999. Swept out of the playoffs after equal 0:2 results away and home against Columbus. DC 1999. Won the MLS Cup after winning the Supporters' Shield. They played much better at home in those playoffs. Started off by sweeping Miami in two games after a home win and an away draw (shootout win). Defeated Columbus by winning both home games in between a 1:5 shellacking in Crew Stadium. NY 2003. Lost the opener vs NE at home 0:2, then drew 1:1 away to lose by two on aggregate. SJ 2003. Won the MLS Cup after famously coming back from four goals down on aggregate in the quarterfinals (at home). Won both home games and lost the only away game. It's interesting that neither of the MLS Cup winners in this group got there by getting an away result in the playoffs. They both played much better at home. Of course, as I mentioned earlier both were excellent in both categories in the regular season (so basically, they were good wherever they played). Anyway, expecting home and/or away form to carry over into the small sample size that is the MLS playoffs isn't very realistic. One of the top ten disparities on the other side (that is, playing much, much better at home) was last year's New York Red Bulls, and they ended up winning two straight away games to make the final. I don't expect the home/away records of Chicago and LA to have an impact on this year's playoffs. I certainly don't think Fire fans should want their team to get a lower seed so they can play more away games. That's not going to help.