2011 PPG for Every Margin, Every Minute

This week's MLSsoccer column: Climbing the Ladder: Who scores the most important goals? I've seen several people do this for other leagues (for example, Soccermetrics), but I've yet to see it for MLS. Using the data below, I determined how many points each goal was worth by comparing the PPG from teams in each situation in each minute. Using that, it's then possible to figure out who's goals have been the most important this year (like WPA in baseball). This is the 2011 data (through 9/17), which is what I used for the article. The next step is to do this for every single year, because one year can cause some issues with small sample size. There's a couple scenarios below where scoring a goal causes the PPG to go down. For instance, the only time this season an away team has had a 3 goal lead in the 25th minute was the PHI-NE game where the Union came back to draw (at least, until last night). There's also the issue of what to do when multiple goals are scored during stoppage time. If one team scores in the 93rd and the other scores in the 94th, what to do then? I've always treated it statistically like MLS does, counting all of it as one minute so that a full game equals 90. It could be treated separately, but then it's impossible to know exactly how long the stoppage time was for each match (that is, you can't assume all games even had a 93rd minute). So here's the PPG for every margin after each minute (2011, through 9/17): Home Teams 5 4 3 2 1 0 -1 -2 -3 -4 -5 1 1.68 2.00 2 2.71 1.67 1.00 3 2.50 1.67 1.29 4 2.50 1.66 1.20 5 2.50 1.69 1.00 6 2.50 1.69 0.94 7 2.57 1.68 1.05 8 3.00 2.50 1.67 1.05 9 3.00 2.36 1.66 1.14 10 3.00 2.36 1.65 1.25 0.00 11 3.00 2.39 1.66 1.19 0.00 12 3.00 2.42 1.67 1.00 0.00 13 3.00 2.28 1.69 0.92 0.00 14 3.00 2.30 1.69 0.96 0.00 15 3.00 2.29 1.69 0.96 0.00 16 3.00 2.26 1.69 0.96 0.20 17 3.00 2.28 1.68 0.96 0.20 18 3.00 2.29 1.68 0.93 0.20 19 3.00 2.27 1.68 0.93 0.17 20 3.00 2.19 1.70 0.93 0.17 21 3.00 3.00 2.21 1.69 0.92 0.29 22 3.00 3.00 2.14 1.71 0.86 0.29 23 3.00 3.00 2.07 1.73 0.90 0.25 24 3.00 3.00 2.04 1.74 0.94 0.13 25 3.00 3.00 2.06 1.76 0.89 0.00 1.00 26 3.00 3.00 2.08 1.75 0.87 0.00 1.00 27 3.00 3.00 2.06 1.77 0.86 0.00 1.00 28 3.00 3.00 2.08 1.76 0.93 0.13 29 3.00 3.00 2.11 1.74 0.89 0.13 30 3.00 3.00 2.13 1.75 0.89 0.13 31 3.00 3.00 2.17 1.77 0.83 0.13 32 3.00 3.00 2.16 1.77 0.77 0.13 33 3.00 3.00 2.16 1.73 0.76 0.00 1.00 34 3.00 3.00 2.16 1.73 0.73 0.00 1.00 35 3.00 3.00 2.16 1.72 0.73 0.00 1.00 36 3.00 3.00 2.20 1.71 0.71 0.00 1.00 37 3.00 2.86 2.24 1.68 0.71 0.00 1.00 38 3.00 2.88 2.20 1.69 0.73 0.00 1.00 39 3.00 2.88 2.23 1.66 0.78 0.00 1.00 40 3.00 3.00 2.90 2.22 1.62 0.83 0.00 1.00 41 3.00 3.00 2.89 2.23 1.62 0.81 0.00 1.00 42 3.00 3.00 2.90 2.24 1.62 0.88 0.00 1.00 43 3.00 3.00 2.90 2.23 1.62 0.88 0.00 1.00 44 3.00 3.00 2.91 2.21 1.63 0.83 0.00 0.50 45 3.00 3.00 2.92 2.26 1.56 0.92 0.00 0.50 46 3.00 3.00 2.91 2.23 1.55 0.92 0.00 0.50 47 3.00 3.00 2.83 2.25 1.54 0.89 0.00 0.50 48 3.00 3.00 2.85 2.23 1.58 0.71 0.00 0.50 49 3.00 3.00 2.85 2.27 1.59 0.69 0.00 0.50 50 3.00 3.00 2.86 2.32 1.53 0.68 0.00 1.00 51 3.00 3.00 2.85 2.37 1.51 0.68 0.00 1.00 52 3.00 3.00 2.86 2.35 1.49 0.67 0.00 1.00 53 3.00 3.00 2.93 2.40 1.45 0.67 0.00 1.00 54 3.00 3.00 2.92 2.42 1.42 0.60 0.08 55 3.00 3.00 2.92 2.43 1.41 0.62 0.07 56 3.00 3.00 2.92 2.42 1.42 0.56 0.08 57 3.00 3.00 2.83 2.47 1.42 0.55 0.08 58 3.00 3.00 2.83 2.46 1.42 0.51 0.14 59 3.00 2.85 2.41 1.42 0.51 0.14 60 3.00 2.84 2.40 1.41 0.59 0.13 61 3.00 3.00 2.83 2.43 1.43 0.56 0.13 62 3.00 3.00 2.82 2.43 1.42 0.55 0.07 1.00 63 3.00 3.00 2.91 2.36 1.46 0.54 0.07 1.00 64 3.00 3.00 2.92 2.33 1.42 0.50 0.07 1.00 65 3.00 3.00 2.92 2.36 1.40 0.49 0.07 1.00 66 3.00 3.00 2.92 2.38 1.39 0.50 0.07 0.50 67 3.00 3.00 2.92 2.39 1.35 0.47 0.08 0.50 68 3.00 3.00 2.74 2.44 1.35 0.46 0.08 0.50 69 3.00 3.00 2.75 2.42 1.33 0.43 0.08 0.50 70 3.00 3.00 2.85 2.41 1.29 0.45 0.08 0.50 71 3.00 3.00 2.92 2.37 1.27 0.45 0.08 0.50 72 3.00 3.00 2.91 2.39 1.28 0.36 0.08 0.33 73 3.00 3.00 3.00 2.39 1.28 0.35 0.17 0.00 74 3.00 3.00 3.00 2.43 1.25 0.39 0.15 0.00 75 3.00 3.00 3.00 2.46 1.24 0.39 0.14 0.00 76 3.00 3.00 3.00 2.44 1.26 0.32 0.15 0.00 77 3.00 3.00 3.00 2.47 1.22 0.33 0.14 0.00 78 3.00 3.00 3.00 2.46 1.23 0.35 0.15 0.00 79 3.00 3.00 3.00 2.45 1.20 0.37 0.08 0.00 80 3.00 3.00 3.00 2.47 1.18 0.35 0.08 0.00 81 3.00 3.00 3.00 2.45 1.17 0.33 0.08 0.00 82 3.00 3.00 3.00 2.43 1.11 0.33 0.08 0.00 83 3.00 3.00 3.00 2.45 1.11 0.28 0.07 0.00 84 3.00 3.00 3.00 2.44 1.12 0.25 0.07 0.00 85 3.00 3.00 3.00 2.52 1.12 0.22 0.07 0.00 86 3.00 3.00 3.00 2.59 1.07 0.24 0.07 0.00 87 3.00 3.00 3.00 2.65 1.05 0.21 0.08 0.00 88 3.00 3.00 3.00 2.66 1.02 0.17 0.09 0.00 89 3.00 3.00 3.00 3.00 2.72 1.01 0.14 0.10 0.00 0.00 90 3.00 3.00 3.00 3.00 3.00 1.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 Away Teams away 5 4 3 2 1 0 -1 -2 -3 -4 -5 1 0.50 0.96 2 1.60 0.97 0.14 3 1.29 0.97 0.25 4 1.20 0.98 0.25 5 1.56 0.95 0.25 6 1.65 0.94 0.25 7 1.50 0.96 0.21 8 1.50 0.96 0.25 0.00 9 1.41 0.98 0.32 0.00 10 3.00 1.25 0.99 0.32 0.00 11 3.00 1.33 0.97 0.30 0.00 12 3.00 1.55 0.96 0.29 0.00 13 3.00 1.67 0.93 0.41 0.00 14 3.00 1.61 0.94 0.40 0.00 15 3.00 1.65 0.94 0.35 0.00 16 2.60 1.65 0.93 0.42 0.00 17 2.60 1.63 0.94 0.41 0.00 18 2.60 1.68 0.94 0.40 0.00 19 2.67 1.70 0.93 0.41 0.00 20 2.67 1.70 0.92 0.49 0.00 21 2.43 1.73 0.92 0.47 0.00 0.00 22 2.43 1.82 0.89 0.57 0.00 0.00 23 2.50 1.70 0.88 0.60 0.00 0.00 24 2.75 1.59 0.88 0.61 0.00 0.00 25 1.00 3.00 1.64 0.86 0.62 0.00 0.00 26 1.00 3.00 1.66 0.87 0.61 0.00 0.00 27 1.00 3.00 1.64 0.85 0.62 0.00 0.00 28 2.75 1.60 0.85 0.61 0.00 0.00 29 2.75 1.64 0.86 0.58 0.00 0.00 30 2.75 1.62 0.86 0.57 0.00 0.00 31 2.75 1.71 0.83 0.54 0.00 0.00 32 2.75 1.72 0.85 0.54 0.00 0.00 33 1.00 3.00 1.76 0.87 0.54 0.00 0.00 34 1.00 3.00 1.73 0.88 0.54 0.00 0.00 35 1.00 3.00 1.73 0.89 0.54 0.00 0.00 36 1.00 3.00 1.78 0.88 0.52 0.00 0.00 37 1.00 3.00 1.78 0.90 0.50 0.07 0.00 38 1.00 3.00 1.75 0.90 0.53 0.06 0.00 39 1.00 3.00 1.71 0.93 0.48 0.06 0.00 40 1.00 3.00 1.66 0.96 0.49 0.05 0.00 0.00 41 1.00 3.00 1.70 0.95 0.48 0.05 0.00 0.00 42 1.00 3.00 1.63 0.94 0.48 0.05 0.00 0.00 43 1.00 3.00 1.61 0.94 0.49 0.05 0.00 0.00 44 2.00 3.00 1.65 0.94 0.50 0.05 0.00 0.00 45 2.00 3.00 1.53 1.01 0.45 0.04 0.00 0.00 46 2.00 3.00 1.54 1.01 0.48 0.04 0.00 0.00 47 2.00 3.00 1.54 1.02 0.47 0.09 0.00 0.00 48 2.00 3.00 1.71 0.97 0.48 0.08 0.00 0.00 49 2.00 3.00 1.76 0.94 0.47 0.08 0.00 0.00 50 1.00 3.00 1.77 0.98 0.44 0.07 0.00 0.00 51 1.00 3.00 1.77 0.99 0.41 0.07 0.00 0.00 52 1.00 3.00 1.81 1.00 0.42 0.07 0.00 0.00 53 1.00 3.00 1.81 1.03 0.37 0.04 0.00 0.00 54 2.85 1.88 1.05 0.36 0.04 0.00 0.00 55 2.86 1.85 1.06 0.35 0.04 0.00 0.00 56 2.85 1.95 1.03 0.35 0.04 0.00 0.00 57 2.85 1.98 1.03 0.31 0.08 0.00 0.00 58 2.71 2.05 1.02 0.31 0.09 0.00 0.00 59 2.71 2.05 1.02 0.34 0.08 0.00 60 2.73 1.98 1.03 0.34 0.08 0.00 61 2.73 2.02 0.99 0.33 0.08 0.00 0.00 62 1.00 2.87 2.05 0.99 0.33 0.09 0.00 0.00 63 1.00 2.87 2.07 0.96 0.36 0.04 0.00 0.00 64 1.00 2.86 2.15 0.98 0.38 0.04 0.00 0.00 65 1.00 2.86 2.18 0.99 0.36 0.04 0.00 0.00 66 2.00 2.86 2.16 0.99 0.35 0.04 0.00 0.00 67 2.00 2.85 2.22 1.02 0.35 0.04 0.00 0.00 68 2.00 2.85 2.26 1.02 0.30 0.19 0.00 0.00 69 2.00 2.83 2.30 1.01 0.33 0.18 0.00 0.00 70 2.00 2.83 2.26 1.03 0.36 0.08 0.00 0.00 71 2.00 2.83 2.26 1.03 0.40 0.04 0.00 0.00 72 2.33 2.83 2.36 1.01 0.39 0.05 0.00 0.00 73 3.00 2.67 2.38 1.01 0.36 0.00 0.00 0.00 74 3.00 2.69 2.29 1.05 0.32 0.00 0.00 0.00 75 3.00 2.71 2.29 1.03 0.31 0.00 0.00 0.00 76 3.00 2.69 2.35 1.02 0.32 0.00 0.00 0.00 77 3.00 2.71 2.33 1.05 0.31 0.00 0.00 0.00 78 3.00 2.69 2.30 1.05 0.31 0.00 0.00 0.00 79 3.00 2.83 2.26 1.06 0.32 0.00 0.00 0.00 80 3.00 2.85 2.29 1.07 0.31 0.00 0.00 0.00 81 3.00 2.85 2.33 1.07 0.32 0.00 0.00 0.00 82 3.00 2.85 2.33 1.11 0.32 0.00 0.00 0.00 83 3.00 2.86 2.44 1.07 0.32 0.00 0.00 0.00 84 3.00 2.86 2.50 1.05 0.32 0.00 0.00 0.00 85 3.00 2.87 2.56 1.01 0.29 0.00 0.00 0.00 86 3.00 2.86 2.53 1.04 0.25 0.00 0.00 0.00 87 3.00 2.85 2.59 1.05 0.22 0.00 0.00 0.00 88 3.00 2.82 2.66 1.06 0.21 0.00 0.00 0.00 89 3.00 3.00 2.80 2.71 1.08 0.16 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 90 3.00 3.00 3.00 3.00 1.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00