2011 PPG for Every Margin, Every Minute

This week's MLSsoccer column: Climbing the Ladder: Who scores the most important goals? I've seen several people do this for other leagues (for example, Soccermetrics), but I've yet to see it for MLS. Using the data below, I determined how many points each goal was worth by comparing the PPG from teams in each situation in each minute. Using that, it's then possible to figure out who's goals have been the most important this year (like WPA in baseball). This is the 2011 data (through 9/17), which is what I used for the article. The next step is to do this for every single year, because one year can cause some issues with small sample size. There's a couple scenarios below where scoring a goal causes the PPG to go down. For instance, the only time this season an away team has had a 3 goal lead in the 25th minute was the PHI-NE game where the Union came back to draw (at least, until last night). There's also the issue of what to do when multiple goals are scored during stoppage time. If one team scores in the 93rd and the other scores in the 94th, what to do then? I've always treated it statistically like MLS does, counting all of it as one minute so that a full game equals 90. It could be treated separately, but then it's impossible to know exactly how long the stoppage time was for each match (that is, you can't assume all games even had a 93rd minute). So here's the PPG for every margin after each minute (2011, through 9/17): Home Teams 5 4 3 2 1 0 -1 -2 -3 -4 -5 1 1.68 2.00 2 2.71 1.67 1.00 3 2.50 1.67 1.29 4 2.50 1.66 1.20 5 2.50 1.69 1.00 6 2.50 1.69 0.94 7 2.57 1.68 1.05 8 3.00 2.50 1.67 1.05 9 3.00 2.36 1.66 1.14 10 3.00 2.36 1.65 1.25 0.00 11 3.00 2.39 1.66 1.19 0.00 12 3.00 2.42 1.67 1.00 0.00 13 3.00 2.28 1.69 0.92 0.00 14 3.00 2.30 1.69 0.96 0.00 15 3.00 2.29 1.69 0.96 0.00 16 3.00 2.26 1.69 0.96 0.20 17 3.00 2.28 1.68 0.96 0.20 18 3.00 2.29 1.68 0.93 0.20 19 3.00 2.27 1.68 0.93 0.17 20 3.00 2.19 1.70 0.93 0.17 21 3.00 3.00 2.21 1.69 0.92 0.29 22 3.00 3.00 2.14 1.71 0.86 0.29 23 3.00 3.00 2.07 1.73 0.90 0.25 24 3.00 3.00 2.04 1.74 0.94 0.13 25 3.00 3.00 2.06 1.76 0.89 0.00 1.00 26 3.00 3.00 2.08 1.75 0.87 0.00 1.00 27 3.00 3.00 2.06 1.77 0.86 0.00 1.00 28 3.00 3.00 2.08 1.76 0.93 0.13 29 3.00 3.00 2.11 1.74 0.89 0.13 30 3.00 3.00 2.13 1.75 0.89 0.13 31 3.00 3.00 2.17 1.77 0.83 0.13 32 3.00 3.00 2.16 1.77 0.77 0.13 33 3.00 3.00 2.16 1.73 0.76 0.00 1.00 34 3.00 3.00 2.16 1.73 0.73 0.00 1.00 35 3.00 3.00 2.16 1.72 0.73 0.00 1.00 36 3.00 3.00 2.20 1.71 0.71 0.00 1.00 37 3.00 2.86 2.24 1.68 0.71 0.00 1.00 38 3.00 2.88 2.20 1.69 0.73 0.00 1.00 39 3.00 2.88 2.23 1.66 0.78 0.00 1.00 40 3.00 3.00 2.90 2.22 1.62 0.83 0.00 1.00 41 3.00 3.00 2.89 2.23 1.62 0.81 0.00 1.00 42 3.00 3.00 2.90 2.24 1.62 0.88 0.00 1.00 43 3.00 3.00 2.90 2.23 1.62 0.88 0.00 1.00 44 3.00 3.00 2.91 2.21 1.63 0.83 0.00 0.50 45 3.00 3.00 2.92 2.26 1.56 0.92 0.00 0.50 46 3.00 3.00 2.91 2.23 1.55 0.92 0.00 0.50 47 3.00 3.00 2.83 2.25 1.54 0.89 0.00 0.50 48 3.00 3.00 2.85 2.23 1.58 0.71 0.00 0.50 49 3.00 3.00 2.85 2.27 1.59 0.69 0.00 0.50 50 3.00 3.00 2.86 2.32 1.53 0.68 0.00 1.00 51 3.00 3.00 2.85 2.37 1.51 0.68 0.00 1.00 52 3.00 3.00 2.86 2.35 1.49 0.67 0.00 1.00 53 3.00 3.00 2.93 2.40 1.45 0.67 0.00 1.00 54 3.00 3.00 2.92 2.42 1.42 0.60 0.08 55 3.00 3.00 2.92 2.43 1.41 0.62 0.07 56 3.00 3.00 2.92 2.42 1.42 0.56 0.08 57 3.00 3.00 2.83 2.47 1.42 0.55 0.08 58 3.00 3.00 2.83 2.46 1.42 0.51 0.14 59 3.00 2.85 2.41 1.42 0.51 0.14 60 3.00 2.84 2.40 1.41 0.59 0.13 61 3.00 3.00 2.83 2.43 1.43 0.56 0.13 62 3.00 3.00 2.82 2.43 1.42 0.55 0.07 1.00 63 3.00 3.00 2.91 2.36 1.46 0.54 0.07 1.00 64 3.00 3.00 2.92 2.33 1.42 0.50 0.07 1.00 65 3.00 3.00 2.92 2.36 1.40 0.49 0.07 1.00 66 3.00 3.00 2.92 2.38 1.39 0.50 0.07 0.50 67 3.00 3.00 2.92 2.39 1.35 0.47 0.08 0.50 68 3.00 3.00 2.74 2.44 1.35 0.46 0.08 0.50 69 3.00 3.00 2.75 2.42 1.33 0.43 0.08 0.50 70 3.00 3.00 2.85 2.41 1.29 0.45 0.08 0.50 71 3.00 3.00 2.92 2.37 1.27 0.45 0.08 0.50 72 3.00 3.00 2.91 2.39 1.28 0.36 0.08 0.33 73 3.00 3.00 3.00 2.39 1.28 0.35 0.17 0.00 74 3.00 3.00 3.00 2.43 1.25 0.39 0.15 0.00 75 3.00 3.00 3.00 2.46 1.24 0.39 0.14 0.00 76 3.00 3.00 3.00 2.44 1.26 0.32 0.15 0.00 77 3.00 3.00 3.00 2.47 1.22 0.33 0.14 0.00 78 3.00 3.00 3.00 2.46 1.23 0.35 0.15 0.00 79 3.00 3.00 3.00 2.45 1.20 0.37 0.08 0.00 80 3.00 3.00 3.00 2.47 1.18 0.35 0.08 0.00 81 3.00 3.00 3.00 2.45 1.17 0.33 0.08 0.00 82 3.00 3.00 3.00 2.43 1.11 0.33 0.08 0.00 83 3.00 3.00 3.00 2.45 1.11 0.28 0.07 0.00 84 3.00 3.00 3.00 2.44 1.12 0.25 0.07 0.00 85 3.00 3.00 3.00 2.52 1.12 0.22 0.07 0.00 86 3.00 3.00 3.00 2.59 1.07 0.24 0.07 0.00 87 3.00 3.00 3.00 2.65 1.05 0.21 0.08 0.00 88 3.00 3.00 3.00 2.66 1.02 0.17 0.09 0.00 89 3.00 3.00 3.00 3.00 2.72 1.01 0.14 0.10 0.00 0.00 90 3.00 3.00 3.00 3.00 3.00 1.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 Away Teams away 5 4 3 2 1 0 -1 -2 -3 -4 -5 1 0.50 0.96 2 1.60 0.97 0.14 3 1.29 0.97 0.25 4 1.20 0.98 0.25 5 1.56 0.95 0.25 6 1.65 0.94 0.25 7 1.50 0.96 0.21 8 1.50 0.96 0.25 0.00 9 1.41 0.98 0.32 0.00 10 3.00 1.25 0.99 0.32 0.00 11 3.00 1.33 0.97 0.30 0.00 12 3.00 1.55 0.96 0.29 0.00 13 3.00 1.67 0.93 0.41 0.00 14 3.00 1.61 0.94 0.40 0.00 15 3.00 1.65 0.94 0.35 0.00 16 2.60 1.65 0.93 0.42 0.00 17 2.60 1.63 0.94 0.41 0.00 18 2.60 1.68 0.94 0.40 0.00 19 2.67 1.70 0.93 0.41 0.00 20 2.67 1.70 0.92 0.49 0.00 21 2.43 1.73 0.92 0.47 0.00 0.00 22 2.43 1.82 0.89 0.57 0.00 0.00 23 2.50 1.70 0.88 0.60 0.00 0.00 24 2.75 1.59 0.88 0.61 0.00 0.00 25 1.00 3.00 1.64 0.86 0.62 0.00 0.00 26 1.00 3.00 1.66 0.87 0.61 0.00 0.00 27 1.00 3.00 1.64 0.85 0.62 0.00 0.00 28 2.75 1.60 0.85 0.61 0.00 0.00 29 2.75 1.64 0.86 0.58 0.00 0.00 30 2.75 1.62 0.86 0.57 0.00 0.00 31 2.75 1.71 0.83 0.54 0.00 0.00 32 2.75 1.72 0.85 0.54 0.00 0.00 33 1.00 3.00 1.76 0.87 0.54 0.00 0.00 34 1.00 3.00 1.73 0.88 0.54 0.00 0.00 35 1.00 3.00 1.73 0.89 0.54 0.00 0.00 36 1.00 3.00 1.78 0.88 0.52 0.00 0.00 37 1.00 3.00 1.78 0.90 0.50 0.07 0.00 38 1.00 3.00 1.75 0.90 0.53 0.06 0.00 39 1.00 3.00 1.71 0.93 0.48 0.06 0.00 40 1.00 3.00 1.66 0.96 0.49 0.05 0.00 0.00 41 1.00 3.00 1.70 0.95 0.48 0.05 0.00 0.00 42 1.00 3.00 1.63 0.94 0.48 0.05 0.00 0.00 43 1.00 3.00 1.61 0.94 0.49 0.05 0.00 0.00 44 2.00 3.00 1.65 0.94 0.50 0.05 0.00 0.00 45 2.00 3.00 1.53 1.01 0.45 0.04 0.00 0.00 46 2.00 3.00 1.54 1.01 0.48 0.04 0.00 0.00 47 2.00 3.00 1.54 1.02 0.47 0.09 0.00 0.00 48 2.00 3.00 1.71 0.97 0.48 0.08 0.00 0.00 49 2.00 3.00 1.76 0.94 0.47 0.08 0.00 0.00 50 1.00 3.00 1.77 0.98 0.44 0.07 0.00 0.00 51 1.00 3.00 1.77 0.99 0.41 0.07 0.00 0.00 52 1.00 3.00 1.81 1.00 0.42 0.07 0.00 0.00 53 1.00 3.00 1.81 1.03 0.37 0.04 0.00 0.00 54 2.85 1.88 1.05 0.36 0.04 0.00 0.00 55 2.86 1.85 1.06 0.35 0.04 0.00 0.00 56 2.85 1.95 1.03 0.35 0.04 0.00 0.00 57 2.85 1.98 1.03 0.31 0.08 0.00 0.00 58 2.71 2.05 1.02 0.31 0.09 0.00 0.00 59 2.71 2.05 1.02 0.34 0.08 0.00 60 2.73 1.98 1.03 0.34 0.08 0.00 61 2.73 2.02 0.99 0.33 0.08 0.00 0.00 62 1.00 2.87 2.05 0.99 0.33 0.09 0.00 0.00 63 1.00 2.87 2.07 0.96 0.36 0.04 0.00 0.00 64 1.00 2.86 2.15 0.98 0.38 0.04 0.00 0.00 65 1.00 2.86 2.18 0.99 0.36 0.04 0.00 0.00 66 2.00 2.86 2.16 0.99 0.35 0.04 0.00 0.00 67 2.00 2.85 2.22 1.02 0.35 0.04 0.00 0.00 68 2.00 2.85 2.26 1.02 0.30 0.19 0.00 0.00 69 2.00 2.83 2.30 1.01 0.33 0.18 0.00 0.00 70 2.00 2.83 2.26 1.03 0.36 0.08 0.00 0.00 71 2.00 2.83 2.26 1.03 0.40 0.04 0.00 0.00 72 2.33 2.83 2.36 1.01 0.39 0.05 0.00 0.00 73 3.00 2.67 2.38 1.01 0.36 0.00 0.00 0.00 74 3.00 2.69 2.29 1.05 0.32 0.00 0.00 0.00 75 3.00 2.71 2.29 1.03 0.31 0.00 0.00 0.00 76 3.00 2.69 2.35 1.02 0.32 0.00 0.00 0.00 77 3.00 2.71 2.33 1.05 0.31 0.00 0.00 0.00 78 3.00 2.69 2.30 1.05 0.31 0.00 0.00 0.00 79 3.00 2.83 2.26 1.06 0.32 0.00 0.00 0.00 80 3.00 2.85 2.29 1.07 0.31 0.00 0.00 0.00 81 3.00 2.85 2.33 1.07 0.32 0.00 0.00 0.00 82 3.00 2.85 2.33 1.11 0.32 0.00 0.00 0.00 83 3.00 2.86 2.44 1.07 0.32 0.00 0.00 0.00 84 3.00 2.86 2.50 1.05 0.32 0.00 0.00 0.00 85 3.00 2.87 2.56 1.01 0.29 0.00 0.00 0.00 86 3.00 2.86 2.53 1.04 0.25 0.00 0.00 0.00 87 3.00 2.85 2.59 1.05 0.22 0.00 0.00 0.00 88 3.00 2.82 2.66 1.06 0.21 0.00 0.00 0.00 89 3.00 3.00 2.80 2.71 1.08 0.16 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 90 3.00 3.00 3.00 3.00 1.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

Juan Pablo Angel - Best Ever Age 34 Goal Haul

I've updated the Top Goalscorers by Season Age post to include 2010. That's the page where I look at the top 10 single season goalscorers for each age, based on the age each player is on July 1st of that year (basically the mid-point). This year, we have one new leader: Juan Pablo Angel's 13 goals were the most ever for an age 34 season, replacing Preki's 12 goals in 1997 for first place. Angel already shares the top spot for age 31 based on his 2007 exploits, and he's 4th for age 32 and 2nd for age 33. I'm sure New York won't miss him at all. The only other players to be first in more than one age are Roy Lassiter (27, 29, 30) and Preki (33, 38, 39, 40, 42). The following players all entered the top ten for their age: 17-McInerney/Najar, 18-Mwanga, 19-Bowen, 20-Bunbury/Shea, 22-Montero/Zakuani, 25-Kamara, 26-Le Toux/Wondolowski, 27-Cummings, 28-Casey, 29-Buddle, 32-De Rosario, 33-Cunningham, 34-Angel, 35-Nkufo, 37-Barros Schelotto, 38-McBride.

MLS Week 28: Mid-week notes

1) The Columbus Crew's home unbeaten streak in all competitions is over with the CONCACAF Champions League loss to Cruz Azul. You may have heard that they broke the record for the regular season with 19 straight games back in July. However, they also managed to just do enough to break the overall streak as well. They were at 24 games before last night, one better than the 2000-01 Chicago Fire. That included 21 regular season games, plus the two playoff games last year and the Puerto Rico game last month. 2) Let's revisit this post: Top MLS Goalscorers by Season Age. How's 2009 going to change these lists? Well, Guillermo Barros Schelotto has already set a record for an age 36 season, easily eclipsing Preki's season for the awful 1999 Kansas City Wizards. Brian McBride has scored 6 goals, but due to the injury he's probably not going to beat Youri Djorkaeff's 10 for age 37. Meanwhile, Jeff Cunningham is 3 goals away from tying Adolfo Valencia's age 32 record haul of 16 in 2000. Unfortunately, there haven't been any teenage goalscoring sensations this year to light up the younger age records. 3) Recommended reading (neither are MLS, but...): If you're not reading Jonathan Wilson's articles for the Guardian's football web site, you really should be. He has the best articles on tactics that I've come across. His current one deals with the possible return of the sweeper, and there's several links to some of his other ones in that story. Another great read is Pro Player Pipeline, which deals with college soccer and features detailed reviews of matches seen by the author. 4) The Los Angeles Galaxy may be doing well in the league table, but they're coming dangerously close to fielding the league's oldest ever starting lineup. The record is currently held (as far as I can tell) by the Chicago Fire's lineup on 8/28/1998 with an average age of 31.48 years old. This past Saturday, the Galaxy's lineup was on average 29.59 years old. That may not seem too close, but they're only two players away from setting a new mark. Against Toronto, If you had replaced Gonzalez with Sanneh and then switched out either Franklin for Klein or Kirovski for Buddle, they would've set a new mark. The best chance may come if Omar Gonzalez has to sit out a match. He's still shy of his 21st birthday, so replacing him would make things a lot closer. Unfortunately, Tony Sanneh may be just too old to even consider in the lineup anymore, especially alongside Gregg Berhalter. A more likely path to the record would see Franklin move to CB instead of Gonzalez, who's place in the lineup would be taken by Klein (at RB). Klein's younger than Sanneh, so then you would need another big age increase. How about Jovan Kirovski? Him (33.51) replacing Buddle (28.33) wouldn't be enough, but what if Donovan moved back and Birchall came off instead (25.37)? Those two moves (Klein/Kirovski for Birchall/Gonzalez) to this past Saturday's lineup would be enough to set a new record.

MLS: Top Ten American Goalscorers by Year

Somebody posted a comment to the Age of MLS Golden Boot Winners post which inspired this post. Man, 2001 was really pathetic wasn't it? Moreso if you look at the full leaderboard. Wynalda was the only American in the top ten. Jeff Cunningham was counted from 2002 on, as he received his citizenship after the 2001 season. In 14 seasons, only 57 different players have made one of these top tens. How many of those guys have never played for the USMNT? A total of ten: Burciaga, Carrieri, Elliott, Magee, Marino, Paule, Rammel, Rhine, Rooney, Wood. 2009 1 Jeff Cunningham 17 2 Conor Casey 16 3 Landon Donovan 12 4 Robbie Findley 12 5 Josh Wolff 11 6 Nate Jaqua 9 7 Brian Ching 8 8 Kenny Cooper 7 9 Steve Ralston 7 10 Chris Rolfe 6 10 Eddie Gaven 6 10 Stuart Holden 6 2008 1 Landon Donovan 20 2 Kenny Cooper 18 3 Edson Buddle 15 4 Brian Ching 13 5 Conor Casey 11 6 Chad Barrett 9 6 Chris Rolfe 9 8 Jeff Cunningham 8 8 Steve Ralston 8 8 Taylor Twellman 8 2007 1 Taylor Twellman 16 2 Eddie Johnson 15 3 Ante Razov 11 4 Jozy Altidore 9 5 Landon Donovan 8 5 Robbie Findley 8 7 Chad Barrett 7 7 Brian Ching 7 7 Nate Jaqua 7 7 Pat Noonan 7 7 Ben Olsen 7 2006 1 Jeff Cunningham 16 2 Ante Razov 14 3 Landon Donovan 12 4 Brian Ching 11 4 Kenny Cooper 11 4 Taylor Twellman 11 7 Jose Burciaga 8 7 Clint Dempsey 8 7 Nate Jaqua 8 7 Jason Kreis 8 2005 1 Taylor Twellman 17 2 Jeff Cunningham 12 2 Landon Donovan 12 4 Herculez Gomez 11 5 Clint Dempsey 10 5 Josh Wolff 10 7 Edson Buddle 9 7 Jason Kreis 9 9 Eddie Gaven 8 9 Pat Noonan 8 9 Chris Rolfe 8 2004 1 Brian Ching 12 2 Eddie Johnson 12 3 Edson Buddle 11 4 Pat Noonan 11 5 Alecko Eskandarian 10 6 Josh Wolff 10 7 John Wolyniec 10 8 Davy Arnaud 9 9 Jeff Cunningham 9 10 Taylor Twellman 9 2003 1 Taylor Twellman 15 2 Ante Razov 14 3 Landon Donovan 12 3 Brian McBride 12 3 Preki 12 6 Mark Chung 11 7 Edson Buddle 10 7 Pat Noonan 10 9 Clint Mathis 9 10 DaMarcus Beasley 7 10 Jason Kreis 7 10 Mike Magee 7 2002 1 Taylor Twellman 23 2 Jeff Cunningham 16 3 Ante Razov 14 4 Jason Kreis 13 5 Chris Carrieri 11 5 Mark Chung 11 5 Chris Henderson 11 8 Edson Buddle 9 9 Landon Donovan 7 9 Chris Klein 7 9 Preki 7 9 Bobby Rhine 7 2001 1 Eric Wynalda 10 2 Preki 8 2 Brian Maisonneuve 8 2 Manny Lagos 8 5 Clint Mathis 7 5 Dante Washington 7 5 Landon Donovan 7 5 Roy Lassiter 7 5 Sasha Victorine 7 5 Steve Ralston 7 5 Jason Kreis 7 2000 1 Ante Razov 18 2 Clint Mathis 16 3 Dante Washington 15 4 Jason Kreis 11 5 Imad Baba 9 5 Chris Henderson 9 7 Roy Lassiter 8 7 Manny Lagos 8 9 Paul Bravo 7 9 Cobi Jones 7 9 Josh Wolff 7 1999 1 Jason Kreis 18 1 Roy Lassiter 18 3 Joe-Max Moore 15 4 Ante Razov 14 5 Josh Wolff 10 6 Cobi Jones 8 6 A.J. Wood 8 8 Paul Bravo 7 8 Clint Mathis 7 8 Preki 7 1998 1 Cobi Jones 19 2 Roy Lassiter 18 3 Paul Bravo 11 4 Brian McBride 10 4 Ross Paule 10 4 Preki 10 4 Ante Razov 10 8 Jason Kreis 9 9 Jim Rooney 8 9 Josh Wolff 8 1997 1 Preki 12 2 Dante Washington 12 3 Jeff Baicher 10 3 Mark Chung 10 3 Roy Lassiter 10 3 Lawrence Lozzano 10 7 Paul Bravo 8 7 Jason Kreis 8 7 Pete Marino 8 10 Imad Baba 7 10 Gerell Elliott 7 10 Chris Henderson 7 10 Cobi Jones 7 10 Alan Prampin 7 1996 1 Roy Lassiter 27 2 Preki 18 3 Brian McBride 17 4 Steve Rammel 14 5 Paul Bravo 13 5 Jason Kreis 13 7 Jean Harbor 11 7 Pete Marino 11 7 Joe-Max Moore 11 10 Eric Wynalda 10