CONCACAF Hex Statistics

The hexagonal or "hex" has been in its current form for four cycles: 1998/2002/2006/2010. The fourth edition has just been completed. The USA and Mexico are now tied with identical all time records of 22-8-10, though Mexico is ahead with a better goal differential. What else is new statistically? Carlos Pavon of Honduras won the golden boot for the second time (2002, 2010), and also became the hex's all time leading scorer. His 7 goals also tied for the most in one hex with Mexico's Carlos Hermosillo in 1998. This was also the highest scoring edition, as well as the one with the largest home field advantage. Home teams combined for a 20-5-5 record. The top team in hex history is still 2002 Costa Rica with 23 points. They're immediately followed in the rankings by all 8 Mexico and USA teams. See below for the full list. Some hex statistics: Goals per Game & Draw Percentage Goals Draws 1998 2.53 43.3% 2002 2.43 20.0% 2006 2.77 13.3% 2010 2.93 16.7% OVR 2.67 23.3% Home Field Advantage HFA Home Away 1998 1.30 1.93 0.63 2002 0.40 1.60 1.20 2006 1.40 2.13 0.73 2010 1.50 2.17 0.67 OVR 1.15 1.96 0.81 Measured as home PPG minus away PPG. For comparison, the all time home field advantage in MLS is around 0.67 PPG. Golden Boot Winners 1998 Carlos Hermosillo 7 MEX 2002 Rolando Fonseca 5 CR Carlos Pavon 5 HON Cuauhtemoc Blanco 5 MEX Earnie Stewart 5 USA 2006 Francisco Fonseca 6 MEX Stern John 6 TRI 2010 Carlos Pavon 7 HON Pavon becomes the first two-time winner, and who would've guessed it a year ago? Team Ranking GP W L D Pts PPG GF GA GD 1 2002 Costa Rica 10 7 1 2 23 2.30 17 7 10 2 2006 Mexico 10 7 2 1 22 2.20 22 9 13 3 2006 United States 10 7 2 1 22 2.20 16 6 10 4 2010 United States 10 6 2 2 20 2.00 19 13 6 5 2010 Mexico 10 6 3 1 19 1.90 18 12 6 6 1998 Mexico 10 4 0 6 18 1.80 23 7 16 7 1998 United States 10 4 1 5 17 1.70 17 9 8 8 2002 Mexico 10 5 3 2 17 1.70 16 9 7 9 2002 United States 10 5 3 2 17 1.70 11 8 3 10 2010 Honduras 10 5 4 1 16 1.60 17 11 6 11 2006 Costa Rica 10 5 4 1 16 1.60 15 14 1 12 2010 Costa Rica 10 5 4 1 16 1.60 15 15 0 13 2002 Honduras 10 4 4 2 14 1.40 17 17 0 14 1998 Jamaica 10 3 2 5 14 1.40 7 12 -5 15 2006 Trinidad 10 4 5 1 13 1.30 10 15 -5 16 1998 Costa Rica 10 3 4 3 12 1.20 13 12 1 17 2006 Guatemala 10 3 5 2 11 1.10 16 18 -2 18 1998 El Salvador 10 2 4 4 10 1.00 11 16 -5 19 2010 El Salvador 10 2 6 2 8 0.80 9 15 -6 20 2002 Jamaica 10 2 6 2 8 0.80 7 14 -7 21 2010 Trinidad 10 1 6 3 6 0.60 10 22 -12 22 1998 Canada 10 1 6 3 6 0.60 5 20 -15 23 2002 Trinidad 10 1 7 2 5 0.50 5 18 -13 24 2006 Panama 10 0 8 2 2 0.20 4 21 -17 Overall Performance (1998-2010) GP W L D Pts PPG GF GA GD 1 Mexico 40 22 8 10 76 1.90 79 37 42 2 United States 40 22 8 10 76 1.90 63 36 27 3 Costa Rica 40 20 13 7 67 1.68 60 48 12 4 Honduras 20 9 8 3 30 1.50 34 28 6 5 Trinidad 30 6 18 6 24 0.80 25 55 -30 6 Jamaica 20 5 8 7 22 1.10 14 26 -12 7 El Salvador 20 4 10 6 18 0.90 20 31 -11 8 Guatemala 10 3 5 2 11 1.10 16 18 -2 9 Canada 10 1 6 3 6 0.60 5 20 -15 10 Panama 10 0 8 2 2 0.20 4 21 -17 Leading Goalscorers Total 1998 2002 2006 2010 HON Carlos Pavon 12 5 7 CR Paulo Wanchope 10 3 4 3 TRI Stern John 9 3 6 MEX Cuauhtemoc Blanco 8 5 3 MEX Carlos Hermosillo 7 7 MEX Jared Borgetti 7 3 4 CR Alvaro Saborio 6 2 4 MEX Francisco Fonseca 6 6 USA Earnie Stewart 6 1 5 USA Landon Donovan 6 3 3 Pavon passed Wanchope on September 5th, 2009, with his second goal in the 4-1 win over Trinidad & Tobago. No player has scored in all four hexes. Three have scored in 3/4: Ronald Gomez, Pavel Pardo, and Wanchope.

WCQ Notes

1) First of all, Voros has posted his latest qualifying odds which are always extremely fascinating. Anyone who enjoys this blog would enjoy that post. According to him, the teams on course to qualify are: (italics = already qualified) AFC Australia, Japan, South Korea, Saudi Arabia, North Korea CAF South Africa, Cote d'Ivoire, Ghana, Tunisia, Gabon, Algeria CONCACAF USA, Costa Rica, Mexico, Honduras CONMEBOL Brazil, Paraguay, Argentina, Chile UEFA Netherlands, Spain, England, Germany, Denmark, Italy, France, Greece, Serbia, Slovakia, Switzerland, Russia, Czech Republic 2) As those odds show (and most people still believe), Mexico really doesn't have too much to worry about. Nobody expects them to miss out on the top three, and even if they do they would certainly be the favorite in the CONCACAF-CONMEBOL playoff. The key thing to remember about Mexico is that they've only played one home game versus three away. They can pretty much count on at least 10 points from the remaining four home matches, which would get them to 13 in total and on the brink of qualification (see next item, #3). El Salvador has the opposite problem having already played 3/4 at home. 3) How many points does it take to qualify out of the hex? In the previous three cycles, no team with more than 14 points has missed out on the top three. Honduras finished fourth in 2002 with 14, which was also the total of the worst third place finisher, Jamaica in 1998. So 15 points appears to be the magic number. That means Costa Rica is basically one win away from qualification. 4) Speaking of Costa Rica, guess what? Saturday's games saw them leapfrog Mexico for second place on the all time hex table (1998-present)! Costa Rica now has 63 points from 35 games, while Mexico has a game in hand with 60 from 34. Mexico has a better goal differential, so they would jump back to second with a win versus Trinidad & Tobago on Wednesday. The USA is in first with 66 points, taking over the lead after trailing Mexico by a point going into this cycle. It's amazing how close the three teams are in the table: GP W L D Pts GF GA GD 1 United States 35 19 7 9 66 54 29 25 2 Costa Rica 35 19 10 6 63 54 38 16 3 Mexico 34 17 8 9 60 65 32 33 5) Every World Cup since 1982 has seen at least three teams qualify for the first time. That seemed like a long shot this time around, but there are plenty of good candidates emerging. Here's a list of the best bets for 2010: Bahrain, Bosnia, Burkina Faso, Gabon, Slovakia, Venezuela, Zambia. As usual, Africa is the best bet. 6) I'm sure you're all wondering the same thing I am: Why is Gabon playing so well? They've started the final round of African qualifying by beating Morocco 2-1 away and Togo 3-0 home. FIFA.com describes them as "composed largely of footballers from small clubs around Europe," similar to Angola and Togo last cycle. Their captain and most well known player is Daniel Cousin (Hull, England), but he was injured for the latest match. Roguy Meye (Ankaraspor, Turkey) has scored in the last two matches. Many of their players are based in France, though most are in Ligue 2. Much of their success may be due to their coach (FIFA interview), who is a member of one of the greatest midfields ever. That helps just a bit. 7) It's become increasingly clear that the key moment in Asian qualifying this cycle didn't come on the field. It came on June 27, 2008, when the draw for the final round was made. The ten teams were separated into five spots of two teams each. Australia and South Korea were top seeds, followed by Iran in the second pot. For some reason, Japan and Saudi Arabia were tied for the 4th and 5th positions in the ranking, and therefore also tied for the last spot in the second pot. Japan won a coin flip, and were then placed into the second pot with Iran. Saudi Arabia was placed with Bahrain in pot three. So that one coin flip meant that the loser would face an extremely tough group no matter what, with two other 2006 World Cup teams in it. Had the Saudis won it, they probably would've qualified automatically a few days ago instead of Japan. Instead, they could be facing at least a playoff. But that's not all. The other major part of this was when the actual draw took place. That third pot consisting of Bahrain and Saudi Arabia meant that one group would be incredibly tougher than the other. Indeed, Australia/Japan got lucky while South Korea/Iran didn't. South Korea has done well, but Iran has struggled. Drawing the hard team from that pot may have cost Iran a place in the 2010 World Cup. 8) This isn't a piece of analysis or anything, but as someone obsessed with stats and that sort of thing I need to mention this: Sporcle.com is an amazing web site. They have quizzes for every topic, including plenty on soccer. For example, can you name the top overall World Cup goalscorers (link)? How about all the teams who have played in the Premier League since its inception (link)? I waste so much time there.