World Cup 2010 Draw Preview

The seeding formula and pots have been released by FIFA. They've decided to use only the October 2009 FIFA ranking and nothing else to determine the seven seeded teams. I'm a bit disappointed, if only because the work of people like Edgar and myself has been for nothing this cycle. The big news is that the change means that the Netherlands will be seeded instead of France. You have to wonder exactly when this decision was made. It's convenient from a PR standpoint that France is left out after the Thierry Henry handball. I'm sure if they had any doubts about changing it, that made the decision clearer. Looking back, it's obvious that FIFA was a lot higher on using FIFA rankings since the formula for them was changed after the 2006 World Cup. They've been used heavily for seeding in World Cup qualifying. However, even if they were going to only use one month's ranking, it wasn't announced that they would the October rankings instead of November until November 20th, when the November ranking came out. That's also two days after World Cup qualifying (and France vs Ireland) ended. If they had used the November ranking instead of the October one, then France would have been seeded with England missing out. The reason given for using October over November was that "...using the November 2009 edition would create an uneven situation, specifically for the European Zone, where the play-offs involving the eight best runners-up led to an imbalance in the number of qualification matches played between the teams." Fair enough, but four years ago (as part of the more complex formula) they used the November rankings which did take into account the playoffs. Just like the seeding of the UEFA playoffs, it looks shady. Why not decide these things before the competition starts? Even if there's no conspiracy, FIFA's behavior gives people reason to believe that there might be. Because unlike the small changes to the formula in 2002 and 2006, this time the makeup of the seeded teams is affected by them. EDIT: Apparently the seeds were chosen by "feeling." What a joke. In other words, they decided which teams they wanted to seed and then picked a format based on that. The other big announcement is that just like four years ago, Africa and South America will be grouped together in one pot, with Asia and North America in the other (plus New Zealand). It would've been much better for the USA's chances to have been grouped with Africa rather than Asia. In that scenario, there was a 33% chance of drawing South Africa and a good chance of an easy Asia/Oceania team from the fourth pot. Now, we're guaranteed to draw an African or South American team, and the chance of drawing the hosts is only 1/8. As an American fan, here's what I would most and least like to see happen in Friday's draw. Oh, and if you decide to watch it live (noon Eastern, ESPN), remember that they have a ton of ceremonial stuff before they actually get down to business. Pot 1 - Seeded Teams Argentina Brazil England Germany Italy Netherlands South Africa Spain We want South Africa, it's as simple as that. They're the weakest team by far, even with the advantage of hosting. Besides, we already beat them in South Africa in a friendly this cycle, and we also got a point against South Korea in 2002. As for the others, I don't think it matters too much. We have gotten results against Spain and Italy in competitive games in the past four years, but I'm not sure I have a preference here other than avoiding Brazil. On paper, the Netherlands are probably the second worst team. So the chance of a good draw from this pot is 12.5%, while the other 87.5% is an average draw. Pot 3 - African/South American Teams Algeria Cameroon Chile Cote d’Ivoire Ghana Nigeria Paraguay Uruguay Algeria has to be the best choice, with Cote d'Ivoire and the South American teams the ones to avoid. Though I didn't look at it before writing that, Voros' national team rankings agree, placing Algeria way below the others. I'm not sure though, the African teams may be stronger due to the home continent advantage. So maybe the CONMEBOL trio are more desirable. Unfortunately, as mentioned above we can't draw an Asian team. Due to that grouping, this pot is pretty even in strength. The team we get here should matter the least when it comes to the odds of advancing. Pot 4 - European Teams Denmark France Greece Portugal Serbia Slovakia Slovenia Switzerland This is what it all comes down to. The USMNT's chances of advancing are greatly determined by what happens here. This matters more than anything else that's happened since the 2006 World Cup ended. A draw of France or Portugal would certainly make things very, very difficult and would be a nightmare. There's a 25% chance of that happening. The main goal is to avoid those two teams (75% chance). However, if at all possible it'd be nice to draw Slovakia or Slovenia (25%) chance. We should be favored over either of them regardless of what happens in friendlies. Of the other four teams, I would prefer Greece or Switzerland over Denmark or Serbia. However, they don't stand out like the others as good or bad draws. Goals & Possible Outcomes Our goals should be in this order: 1. Draw South Africa. 2. Avoid France/Portugal. 3. Draw Slovakia/Slovenia. You could also hope to draw Algeria and not say, Chile or Ivory Coast. But that's not as important. Possible Outcomes: 3.1% - Dream draw - South Africa, ???, Slovakia/Slovenia 6.2% - Very good - South Africa, ???, Denmark/Greece/Serbia/Switzerland 21.9% - Good - Other seeded team, ???, Slovakia/Slovenia 3.1% - Decent - South Africa, ???, France/Portugal 43.8% - Average - Other seeded team, ???, Denmark/Greece/Serbia/Switzerland 21.9% - Nightmare - Other seeded team, ???, France/Portugal An average draw is the most likely by far. As you can see, the odds of a really great draw are slim. I'm not expecting that, I just want to avoid the worst.

UEFA WCQ Playoffs Outlook

Standings UEFA is the most important confederation to keep an eye on from an American perspective, as those teams will be the toughest come 2010. If any of the top teams fail to qualify, then it helps us immensely. That's because if all the strongest teams make it, then you're looking at the Netherlands and Portugal in that second pot, which means a 25% chance of drawing one of those two plus a seeded team. So it's definitely in our best interests to have the worst teams qualify that possibly can. Many of the teams are virtual locks (Denmark, England, Spain) to finish first, so I'm going to look at who's likely to finish second. Group 1 Sweden blew their chance to take a grip on second by losing at home with Denmark. I actually like Portugal's chance to finish second now, as long as they don't lose away to Denmark. That's unfortunate from our point of view. Both teams are now equal in the standings and because Portugal's a better team, you have to put them as favorites for the runner up spot. The best option would be to have Hungary pull off a few draws and hold them off, but that's unlikely. Group 2 Two important games here: Switzerland is at home against Greece (9/5) and Israel (10/14). If they beat Greece then they should end up qualifying automatically. I expect that to happen, but maybe we would be better off if it didn't. Switzerland is one of those teams that always plays top teams tough, even if they don't win most of the team. I think they would be a much harder playoff matchup for say, Germany or France than Greece would be. Israel is pretty much done for. Group 3 The biggest mess of them all. As I wrote above, Slovakia seems likely to take first. There's a very good chance the second place team here will miss out on the playoffs, along with group 9's. I feel the Czech Republic is still the most likely team to get second. Further analysis here. I would feel much more confident about meeting Poland in 2010 given our history with them. Group 4 If Russia beats Germany at home on 10/10, then they will likely qualify automatically and leave second place for the Germans. A draw would probably send Russia to the playoffs instead. Can you bet against Gus Hiddink? Group 5 Bosnia is very close to being a lock. Turkey must beat Bosnia away on 9/9. Bosnia and Milan target Dzeko are likely to be fodder in the playoffs. Group 6 Ukraine has the upper hand here on Croatia. Remaining schedules: Croatia: @ Belarus, Belarus, @ England, @ Kazakhstan Ukraine: Andorra, @ Belarus, vs England, @ Andorra Not only do they play Andorra twice, but they also get England at home instead of away. Ukraine really should take second here. Group 7 France will probably get second unless they win at Serbia on 9/9. Getting Germany and France in the playoffs is huge, especially if it's possible that they could meet each other. No one knows if the playoffs will be seeded into top four and bottom four based on FIFA rank like they did four years ago. With Platini, I would say there's a decent chance they don't do that. But I wouldn't be surprised to see them continue to protect the top teams, unfortunately. Group 8 Ireland should have second place pretty much locked up, unless Bulgaria beats Italy away on 9/9. Ireland could even get first if they could beat Italy at home on 10/10. Now that would be something. Group 9 The key matchup here is Norway vs Scotland in August. If Norway wins, they should get second. Scotland will likely get 2nd with only a draw, but even then may not make the playoffs. They really need to beat the Netherlands on the final matchday, when they have nothing to play for. Likely Playoff Teams (with possible pots for the draw) Czech Republic France Russia Portugal Bosnia Greece Ireland Ukraine You can see how much not seeding it would help in terms of bigger teams missing out. None of the bottom four would be a favorite against any of the top four.

Is Portugal really in bad shape? (and other UEFA qualifying analysis)

Outside of CONCACAF, UEFA is my favorite confederation to watch when it comes to World Cup qualifying. I love seeing quality teams go at it, but what really excites me is the possibility that several of those teams could get left out. There are always a couple of surprise packages, and it's a guarantee that one of the "elite" teams (England/France/Germany/Italy/Netherlands/Portugal/Spain) will be in trouble. From the US point of view, this is the single most important region to watch. I want us to advance as far as possible in the World Cup, and one of those elite teams missing out will help us more than anything. This time, it's Portugal and France that are struggling a bit. Now it doesn't look like the seeding (of the top 8 teams in 2010) would be affected much if either failed to qualify. BTW, that link goes to Football Rankings, a great blog for all your seeding and ranking needs: FIFA, UEFA, etc. Highly recommended. Anyway, the top 9 teams in the world (the above 7 from UEFA and Argentina/Brazil) have a lock on the 7 available seeds for 2010. However, the big deal is in the UEFA pot for the 2010 draw. That's the most important of the four pots in the final draw. If all 9 of those teams qualify, then there's a 25% chance of drawing either Portugal/Netherlands in addition to the seeded team. The difference between those two teams and say, Serbia or Switzerland is huge. So even though the seeded teams would still be strong, a top team missing out would affect our chances greatly. Current UEFA qualifying standings (FIFA.com) What I'm going to look at now is how some of the groups may turn out. I want to assume some winners in the easy games, to see how misleading the current standings may or may not be. I'm using vajradaka from Bigsoccer's UEFA qualifying spreadsheet to project the results. Let's look at group 1 and Portugal first. Here is the current table: Group 1 GP W D L Pts 1 Denmark 4 3 1 0 10 2 Hungary 5 3 1 1 10 3 Portugal 5 1 3 1 6 4 Sweden 4 1 3 0 6 5 Albania 6 1 3 2 6 6 Malta 6 0 1 5 1 It doesn't look great for Portugal. They've only earned one point against both Denmark and Sweden at home. In addition, both of those teams have a game in hand. But what I want to look at is, what if the top teams are victorious in all of the matches they should win? I'd have to include Hungary as an easy match. Despite their current position, they've only beaten Albania (x2) and Malta. If I give Denmark/Portugal/Sweden wins in all their matches against the other three (and let's say Hungary beats Malta just to make things more complete), we get the following table: GP W D L Pts 1 Denmark 7 6 1 0 19 2 Portugal 9 5 3 1 18 3 Sweden 8 5 3 0 18 4 Hungary 10 4 1 5 13 5 Albania 10 1 3 6 6 6 Malta 10 0 1 9 1 Portugal is still in bad shape, but not all is lost. It basically all comes down to the one match remaining where they can make a difference. That would be September 5th in Denmark. If they win that match, then they should be in the playoffs no matter what. Only a split between Denmark and Sweden would give them a chance to miss out as they'd be tied with Sweden and it'd come down to goal differential (but they should have a higher GD anyway). If Portugal wins in Denmark, how the DEN-SWE games will affect them: Denmark Portugal Sweden DEN sweep 25 21 18 DEN W/D 23 21 19 SWE sweep 19 21 24 SWE W/D 20 21 22 1 win each 22 21 21 2 draws 21 21 20 However, if Portugal were to draw in Denmark, then only Denmark getting 4 points or more against Sweden would allow the Portuguese to finish in second. So Portugal really is in dire straights in that scenario. If Portugal draws in Denmark, how the DEN-SWE games will affect them: Denmark Portugal Sweden DEN sweep 26 19 18 DEN W/D 24 19 19 SWE sweep 20 19 24 SWE W/D 21 19 22 1 win each 23 19 21 2 draws 25 19 23 So in summary, it would really help them Denmark dominates Sweden. But they really need to win in Denmark on 9/5. Even after all this, the playoffs would almost certainly await. Group 7 Now how about France? I don't think there are any easy games in that group among the top 5. However, we can take the 6 remaining games against the Faroe Islands out of the equation. Current standings: GP W D L Pts 1 Serbia 5 4 0 1 12 2 Lithuania 5 3 0 2 9 3 France 4 2 1 1 7 4 Austria 4 1 1 2 4 5 Romania 4 1 1 2 4 6 Faroe Islands 4 0 1 3 1 Standings after giving wins to all remaining Faroes opponents: GP W D L Pts 1 Serbia 6 5 0 1 15 2 France 6 4 1 1 13 3 Lithuania 6 4 0 2 12 4 Austria 5 2 1 2 7 5 Romania 5 2 1 2 7 6 Faroe-Islands 10 0 1 9 1 France is the only team which has two remaining games against them, so their position looks better when you take that into account. Plus, their other four games include three home matches (Lithuania, Romania, Austria). So I expect France to easily qualify for the playoffs at the very least. Now the top spot may still be in question, because Serbia also has 3/4 of the other matches at home and the only away match is Lithuania on the final matchday when they should already be eliminated. They've already beaten Austria and Romania away, so I assume they can do it at home too. Serbia plays France at home on September 9. Even if they slip up and draw one of their other matches, they could conceivably still finish top of the group with a draw against France. It would come down to GD then. They probably would finish first in such a scenario unless France mauls the Faroes twice. So if France wants to finish first, they probably will need to win in Serbia. Otherwise they'll be taking their chances in the playoffs. On a side note, I really hope that they don't seed the playoff teams like they did last cycle. If both Portugal and France make it, they should have a chance to meet each other. Don't protect the big countries, they already were seeded for the group draw. What about other groups? Group 3 If every team beats San Marino: GP Pts 1 Slovenia 7 14 2 Slovakia 5 12 3 Czech Rep 6 11 4 N.Ireland 6 10 5 Poland 6 10 Slovenia is in a good position. They're the only team with two remaining games against San Marino (whereas Northern Ireland has faced them twice). They've also already played @ Poland and both games against the Czech Republic. They could be a good bet to finish in the top two (Czech's have 3/4 at home, should still finish 1st). However, it seems like the evenness of this group could cause it to end up as the group with the worst second place finisher, which means no playoffs. I think it's either this group or group 9. Group 4 If the top three beat the bottom three every time: GP Pts 1 Germany 8 22 2 Russia 8 21 3 Finland 8 19 10-Jun Finland-Russia 10-Oct Russia-Germany 14-Oct Germany-Finland Group 5 If Belgium/Bosnia/Turkey lose to Spain but beat Armenia/Estonia: GP Pts 1 Bosnia 8 15 2 Turkey 8 14 3 Belgium 8 13 1-Apr Bosnia-Belgium 9-Sep Bosnia-Turkey 10-Oct Belgium-Turkey It really is vital for Turkey to get a result against Spain tomorrow. Bosnia's in good shape, and they have a home match against Spain on the final matchday when they'll have nothing to play for.