2010 World Cup: Who Do the Rating Systems Predict to Advance?

Four years ago, I looked at a number of factors in an attempt to see which would best predict the 16 teams to advance out of the group stage: form, GDP, odds, qualifying record, population, etc. In the end, the best predictors were the ELO rankings and the betting odds, which both got 13/16 right. Both missed Australia/Ecuador/Ghana. Actually, ELO had Iran and Mexico with the exact same ranking, and I'm giving them credit for Mexico. So count it as 12.5 if you like. The much-maligned FIFA rankings only got 10/16, missing the same three as well as Italy/Switzerland/Ukraine (remember the Czechs and USA both being ranked in the top 5?). So it's no wonder that they changed the formula immediately afterward. Since the FIFA rankings began in 1993, here's how both systems have done predicting the advancing teams: ELO FIFA 2006 13 10 2002 10 12 1998 14 11 1994 13 12 Total 50 45 PCT 78.1% 70.3% Who's favored to advance in South Africa? Let's take a look. I'm also including betting odds, SPI, Voros' simulations, and the Castrol Index. 2010 FIFA World Cup: Predicted to Advance ELO FIFA Odds SPI Voros Castrol Group A MEX, FRA FRA, URU FRA, MEX URU, FRA FRA, MEX FRA, URU Group B ARG, SK ARG, GRE ARG, NIG ARG, NIG ARG, GRE ARG, NIG Group C ENG, USA ENG, USA ENG, USA ENG, USA ENG, USA ENG, USA Group D GER, SER GER, SER GER, SER GER, SER GER, SER GER, SER Group E NET, DEN NET, CAM NET, DEN NET, DEN NET, DEN NET, DEN Group F ITA, PAR ITA, PAR ITA, PAR ITA, PAR ITA, PAR ITA, PAR Group G BRA, POR BRA, POR BRA, POR BRA, POR BRA, POR BRA, CIV Group H SPA, CHI SPA, CHI SPA, CHI SPA, CHI SPA, CHI SPA, CHI EDIT: SPI's final pre-World Cup sims showed Denmark advancing instead of Cameroon. Some notes on how I determined this. For FIFA, I just took the highest rated teams to advance. For ELO, I'm using the current rankings as of today (which may change a bit before the tournament). So it's fair to say that FIFA may be at a disadvantage since they only update once per month, and don't take into account the pre-tourney friendlies. For the betting odds, I looked at several top sites and they were all the same. Some sites had Cameroon equal to Denmark for the runner up in group E, but I didn't see any that had them ahead. For Castrol, I looked at their group predictions, which somehow are different than their listed advancement chances for each team (otherwise Australia and Portugal would be listed). All five have the exact same picks for groups C-D-F-H. Apparently Serbia is a bigger favorite than I'd thought. In fact, all five pick 12 of the same teams to advance (including the USA), which means that there are only differences of opinion on 4 spots. Here's the differences: ELO MEX-SK-DEN-POR FIFA URU-GRE-CAM-POR Odds MEX-NIG-DEN-POR SPI URU-NIG-CAM-POR Voros MEX-GRE-DEN-POR Castrol URU-NIG-DEN-CIV No love for South Africa, even at home. Despite virtually everyone being down on their chances, all six have France advancing from group A. Given Mexico's recent success at the World Cup group stage, it's surprising to see Uruguay with strong support. However, Mexico is ranked first in the group by ELO. On the other hand, Nate Silver's SPI ranks Uruguay as the group's top team. Quote: "Uruguay was a constant source of debate during the creation of the SPI." As probably the biggest difference between the systems, SPI may be judged solely by that pick. Also, I'll note that A is the only group with more than one team picked to finish first. Group B is the only one with all four teams picked to advance by someone. If all three non-Argentina teams are evenly matched, will home continent advantage for Nigeria be the difference? South Korea has the WC experience, while Greece boast the greatest achievement (Euro 2004). Denmark vs Cameroon is considered a toss up in terms of advancement by most of the betting sites, and may be the most up in the air spot of all. Nobody is giving Japan any chance, and that seems fair. Their coach said earlier this year that they could reach the semifinals, but reportedly offered to resign after losing to South Korea. With Drogba's injury, Portugal is even more favored to move on. Even Castrol, the only one to pick Cote d'Ivoire, lists Portugal with a slightly better chance of advancing (51.7% vs 51.1%). Once again, I can't explain why it's listed that way.

World Cup Rating Systems Compared

First, let me be the millionth person to say what an amazing draw for the USA. It's about as good as we could've hoped, and for the first time actually we're a favorite to advance. What exactly are the odds of us advancing after this lucky draw? Well, it depends on who you ask. It seems like everybody has a national team rating system these days, so let's take a look at how each of them rate our chances. Indeed, Voros McCracken, Soccer Power Index (Nate Silver), and the Castrol FIFA World Cup Predictor all have the USA as the second best team in the group. However, the odds for advancement differ (64%, 48%, 73% respectively). In addition, we're also favored to advance if you use the FIFA rankings or the ELO ratings. Here are the odds for every team using each of the three projections: Odds for Advancement Voros SPI Castrol France 69.1% 60.0% 59.0% Uruguay 54.8% 62.0% 61.5% Mexico 56.6% 40.0% 49.5% South Africa 19.5% 38.0% 30.0% Argentina 79.4% 77.0% 79.1% Nigeria 40.6% 58.0% 47.3% Greece 46.0% 36.0% 46.1% South Korea 34.1% 29.0% 27.6% England 89.7% 82.0% 90.2% USA 64.4% 48.0% 73.0% Slovenia 30.2% 35.0% 21.0% Algeria 15.7% 35.0% 15.9% Germany 76.3% 65.0% 74.4% Serbia 51.2% 49.0% 47.9% Australia 45.9% 41.0% 48.2% Ghana 26.6% 45.0% 29.5% Netherlands 79.3% 72.0% 79.8% Denmark 49.9% 40.0% 49.5% Cameroon 33.6% 63.0% 32.3% Japan 37.3% 25.0% 38.5% Italy 83.6% 83.0% 84.3% Paraguay 67.8% 78.0% 73.3% Slovakia 43.9% 32.0% 38.8% New Zealand 4.8% 8.0% 3.6% Brazil 90.8% 84.0% 91.7% Portugal 58.7% 55.0% 52.4% Côte d'Ivoire 45.3% 57.0% 50.5% North Korea 5.2% 4.0% 5.4% Spain 88.0% 84.0% 88.1% Chile 44.2% 57.0% 40.2% Switzerland 38.2% 29.0% 36.9% Honduras 29.7% 30.0% 34.7% The teams each one have advancing that the others don't: Voros Greece, Mexico SPI Cameroon, Côte d'Ivoire Castrol Australia I noticed one of the things SPI does is factor in a World Cup continent home field advantage, so that's why it has African teams higher. Here's a chart of who each thinks will advance without percentages, including FIFA and ELO as well (using the higher ranked teams): Advancement Chart Voros SPI Castrol FIFA ELO France yes yes yes yes yes Uruguay yes yes Mexico yes yes yes South Africa Argentina yes yes yes yes yes Nigeria yes yes Greece yes yes yes South Korea England yes yes yes yes yes USA yes yes yes yes yes Slovenia Algeria Germany yes yes yes yes yes Serbia yes yes yes yes Australia yes Ghana Netherlands yes yes yes yes yes Denmark yes yes yes (tie) Cameroon yes yes Japan yes (tie) Italy yes yes yes yes yes Paraguay yes yes yes yes yes Slovakia New Zealand Brazil yes yes yes yes yes Portugal yes yes yes yes Côte d'Ivoire yes North Korea Spain yes yes yes yes yes Chile yes yes yes yes yes Switzerland Honduras Voros and Castrol also have odds for winning the entire tournament. I didn't see that for SPI (yet). Odds for Winning Voros Castrol Algeria 0.0% 0.0% Argentina 6.6% 7.5% Australia 1.0% 1.3% Brazil 23.9% 23.6% Cameroon 0.6% 0.4% Chile 0.7% 0.5% Côte d'Ivoire 1.1% 1.5% Denmark 1.6% 1.5% England 9.9% 10.4% France 5.0% 2.6% Germany 5.7% 5.8% Ghana 0.1% 0.2% Greece 0.7% 0.8% Honduras 0.3% 0.3% Italy 3.9% 3.6% Japan 0.7% 0.7% Mexico 2.0% 1.3% Netherlands 10.7% 10.1% New Zealand 0.0% 0.0% Nigeria 0.6% 1.1% North Korea 0.0% 0.0% Paraguay 1.5% 1.5% Portugal 3.5% 1.8% Serbia 1.3% 1.1% Slovakia 0.1% 0.1% Slovenia 0.1% 0.0% South Africa 0.1% 0.3% South Korea 0.3% 0.2% Spain 14.4% 16.1% Switzerland 0.5% 0.4% Uruguay 1.9% 2.7% USA 1.2% 2.4% Only four teams differ by more than one percentage point. Voros has France and Portugal higher, while Castrol has Spain and the USA higher.