World Cup Rating Systems Compared

First, let me be the millionth person to say what an amazing draw for the USA. It's about as good as we could've hoped, and for the first time actually we're a favorite to advance. What exactly are the odds of us advancing after this lucky draw? Well, it depends on who you ask. It seems like everybody has a national team rating system these days, so let's take a look at how each of them rate our chances. Indeed, Voros McCracken, Soccer Power Index (Nate Silver), and the Castrol FIFA World Cup Predictor all have the USA as the second best team in the group. However, the odds for advancement differ (64%, 48%, 73% respectively). In addition, we're also favored to advance if you use the FIFA rankings or the ELO ratings. Here are the odds for every team using each of the three projections: Odds for Advancement Voros SPI Castrol France 69.1% 60.0% 59.0% Uruguay 54.8% 62.0% 61.5% Mexico 56.6% 40.0% 49.5% South Africa 19.5% 38.0% 30.0% Argentina 79.4% 77.0% 79.1% Nigeria 40.6% 58.0% 47.3% Greece 46.0% 36.0% 46.1% South Korea 34.1% 29.0% 27.6% England 89.7% 82.0% 90.2% USA 64.4% 48.0% 73.0% Slovenia 30.2% 35.0% 21.0% Algeria 15.7% 35.0% 15.9% Germany 76.3% 65.0% 74.4% Serbia 51.2% 49.0% 47.9% Australia 45.9% 41.0% 48.2% Ghana 26.6% 45.0% 29.5% Netherlands 79.3% 72.0% 79.8% Denmark 49.9% 40.0% 49.5% Cameroon 33.6% 63.0% 32.3% Japan 37.3% 25.0% 38.5% Italy 83.6% 83.0% 84.3% Paraguay 67.8% 78.0% 73.3% Slovakia 43.9% 32.0% 38.8% New Zealand 4.8% 8.0% 3.6% Brazil 90.8% 84.0% 91.7% Portugal 58.7% 55.0% 52.4% Côte d'Ivoire 45.3% 57.0% 50.5% North Korea 5.2% 4.0% 5.4% Spain 88.0% 84.0% 88.1% Chile 44.2% 57.0% 40.2% Switzerland 38.2% 29.0% 36.9% Honduras 29.7% 30.0% 34.7% The teams each one have advancing that the others don't: Voros Greece, Mexico SPI Cameroon, Côte d'Ivoire Castrol Australia I noticed one of the things SPI does is factor in a World Cup continent home field advantage, so that's why it has African teams higher. Here's a chart of who each thinks will advance without percentages, including FIFA and ELO as well (using the higher ranked teams): Advancement Chart Voros SPI Castrol FIFA ELO France yes yes yes yes yes Uruguay yes yes Mexico yes yes yes South Africa Argentina yes yes yes yes yes Nigeria yes yes Greece yes yes yes South Korea England yes yes yes yes yes USA yes yes yes yes yes Slovenia Algeria Germany yes yes yes yes yes Serbia yes yes yes yes Australia yes Ghana Netherlands yes yes yes yes yes Denmark yes yes yes (tie) Cameroon yes yes Japan yes (tie) Italy yes yes yes yes yes Paraguay yes yes yes yes yes Slovakia New Zealand Brazil yes yes yes yes yes Portugal yes yes yes yes Côte d'Ivoire yes North Korea Spain yes yes yes yes yes Chile yes yes yes yes yes Switzerland Honduras Voros and Castrol also have odds for winning the entire tournament. I didn't see that for SPI (yet). Odds for Winning Voros Castrol Algeria 0.0% 0.0% Argentina 6.6% 7.5% Australia 1.0% 1.3% Brazil 23.9% 23.6% Cameroon 0.6% 0.4% Chile 0.7% 0.5% Côte d'Ivoire 1.1% 1.5% Denmark 1.6% 1.5% England 9.9% 10.4% France 5.0% 2.6% Germany 5.7% 5.8% Ghana 0.1% 0.2% Greece 0.7% 0.8% Honduras 0.3% 0.3% Italy 3.9% 3.6% Japan 0.7% 0.7% Mexico 2.0% 1.3% Netherlands 10.7% 10.1% New Zealand 0.0% 0.0% Nigeria 0.6% 1.1% North Korea 0.0% 0.0% Paraguay 1.5% 1.5% Portugal 3.5% 1.8% Serbia 1.3% 1.1% Slovakia 0.1% 0.1% Slovenia 0.1% 0.0% South Africa 0.1% 0.3% South Korea 0.3% 0.2% Spain 14.4% 16.1% Switzerland 0.5% 0.4% Uruguay 1.9% 2.7% USA 1.2% 2.4% Only four teams differ by more than one percentage point. Voros has France and Portugal higher, while Castrol has Spain and the USA higher.